As has been the case for the last two years (and frankly, the last 14), the 118th Congress closed out its legislative session with a high degree of drama prior to passing a short-term funding bill just after the Friday midnight deadline. The House first cleared the measure by a vote of 366-34-1, followed by the Senate with a vote of 85-11.
Passage of the American Relief Act provides a three-month reprieve for discretionary government funding (through March 14), along with a nine-month extension of the Farm Bill (through September 30) and emergency funding for natural disasters and farm aid. Text of the bill can be found here and a section-by-section summary of the appropriations portion of the legislation is attached.
We now look ahead to the looming 119th Congress and what will be a legislatively active Q1 of 2025. Below is a preview of some first steps that the House and Senate will need to take.
Committee Assignments
Prior to leaving for the Christmas break and holidays, Senate Republicans announced committee assignments for the coming Congress.
The House Republican Steering Committee has been active in its own deliberations, leaving very little to appoint in the new Congress. Notably, Speaker Mike Johnson has not yet named new Members to the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSI), of which there will be four vacancies, or settled on a new Chair of the House Committee on Rules (though it’s likely that he will choose Rep. Virginia Foxx).
Speaker Election
We are now left to take a short breath and prepare for what will be an eventful opening week of the new Congress. The 119th Congress will meet at noon on Friday, January 3, with the first order of business being the election of the Speaker of the House. 434 Members-elect are expected to vote on the Speaker, with one vacancy (the seat of former Rep. Matt Gaetz). Should all Members-elect be present and voting, Johnson will need 218 votes to be re-elected Speaker.
At this point, only Rep. Thomas Massie has indicated his opposition to Johnson’s re-election. However, a number of conservatives including Eli Crane, Andy Harris, Troy Nehls, Ralph Norman, and Victoria Spartz are publicly undecided. Given 219 House Republicans on Opening Day, Johnson cannot afford to lose any additional votes beyond Massie and still be elected Speaker.
Opening Week
Working in Johnson’s favor will be the counting of electoral ballots on January 6. The House Parliamentarian has not yet issued formal guidance as to whether a Joint Session to certify the presidential election is possible without a Speaker first being elected. Presumably, a separate resolution could be adopted to elect a temporary Speaker solely for the purposes of presiding over the Electoral College process. That said, the idea is untested and lacks precedence.
What is obvious, however, is that House Republicans do not want to take any chances and risk delaying the certification of Donald Trump’s victory, a critical backstop that should inure to Speaker Johnson’s benefit. Ultimately, Trump himself may need to play a role in the Speaker’s election to ensure it happens in a timely fashion. Any delay will not only disrupt his certification, it will also push back the timeline for many of Trump’s priorities, most notably a border security package that he hopes to sign into law on January 20, his inauguration day, or soon thereafter.
To that point, it’s important to note that the House is not a continuous body. Unlike the Senate, the House dissolves at the end of each Congress and must reconstitute itself following the election of the Speaker and the swearing-in of the Members-elect. Without the adoption the House Rules Package, there are no committees in the House, jurisdictions, or even simple parliamentary procedures. Thus, the House cannot consider legislation until a Speaker has been elected, the Members-elect have been sworn-in, and the House Rules have been adopted.
We will be watching the behind-the-scenes machinations of Johnson’s Speaker campaign over the next two weeks. Changes to the House Rules, remaining committee assignments, and other carrots are all at Johnson’s disposal to ensure he is re-elected Speaker.
In the Senate, Members will be sworn in on January 3 and we expect committee hearings to begin on President-elect Trump’s cabinet nominees the week of January 6. Note that hearing dates will not be officially announced until the Senate agrees to its organizing resolution, which is expected in early January.
Budget Reconciliation
Finally, we are following internal party discussions as the GOP debates the path forward on border security, tax policy, energy production, regulatory reform, and spending cuts via budget reconciliation. Last week’s drama underscores how difficult it will be for Republicans to unify on legislation of significance, regardless of how bills are sequenced.
Adding a degree of difficulty to the mix, House Republican Leadership-per Trump’s request-reached a “gentleman’s agreement” to raise the debt limit by $1.5 trillion in the first reconciliation package alongside $2.5 trillion in mandatory spending cuts over the course of the reconciliation process.
Reading between the lines, the Speaker Johnson’s denotation of a “first reconciliation package” seems to indicated that House Republicans are coming around to the two-part reconciliation process favored by incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune and several key advisors to President-elect Trump. While this draft agreement was reached under duress and is in no way binding, it does suggest that House Republicans may attempt to draft a budget resolution for either FY2025 or FY2026 that includes instructions to reduce the deficit by as much as $1 trillion. This, in turn, could significantly limit the size and scope of a potential tax package and/or require a much broader universe of offsets.
Though we anticipate this draft agreement may change over time-especially following input from soon-to-be President Trump-last week’s events show that a small yet vocal contingency of fiscal hawks remain alive and well inside the House Republican Conference and may be prepared to defy their Leadership (and Trump) on critical votes for reconciliation legislation in the absence of substantial deficit reduction measures. And in a break for their Senate colleagues, this group of House conservatives no longer adheres to Republican orthodoxy that tax cuts do not have to be paid for.
We will continue to provide updates as the above plays out. Merry Christmas and Happy Hannukah!
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