The U.S.-Iran ceasefire and by proxy, the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, both faced their largest test over the weekend with escalating Israeli strikes on Beirut, Iranian and Houthi retaliation (with no intervention by the U.S.), and an Israeli attack inside Iran. While the escalation ladder nearly reached a tipping point, it was halted by both Israel and […]

Last week’s tentative memorandum of understanding (MOU) agreement between the U.S. and Iran has now stretched a full week without signatures from either side. A White House Situation Room meeting last Friday to review the MOU lasted over two hours but failed to produce a determination by the President. Meanwhile, the continued oil shock is […]

The Senate returns to session for a four-week stretch after leaving town 10 days ago without passing its Reconciliation 2.0 legislation, which would fund Border Protection and ICE for three years. The House returns tomorrow for two weeks. While quick passage of 2.0 once seemed nearly inevitable, progress stalled abruptly following the Administration’s announcement of a settlement in President Trump’s lawsuit against the IRS […]

The T+G note has been dominated by the war in Iran and resulting energy and supply chain shocks for the past three months. While that coverage continues again this week, we add in an expanded focus on the Donroe Doctrine, its impact on the U.S. economy, upcoming Latin elections, and most dramatically, the rising prospect […]

News broke on Sunday of a “totally unacceptable” Iranian counteroffer to last week’s U.S. proposal. Despite the conflict’s whipsaw narrative, the U.S. economy continues to show resilience on both the equities and jobs front. The S&P 500 closed on Friday at a record 7,399 and the Nasdaq at 26,247. Both have retreated slightly but are […]

Following a wild last week in the House that resulted in the GOP passing a multitude of major bills, Congress has been in recess this week. The Senate and House return Monday and Tuesday respectively for what will be a quick but impactful two-week work period prior to the Memorial Day recess. Both the Senate […]

Last week was defined by a single structural question that no ceasefire extension, summit announcement, or earnings record could resolve: does the IRGC have a veto over Iranian diplomacy, and if so, can the U.S. blockade break it? This weekend’s scheduled talks in Islamabad ended before they started as President Trump called off U.S. participation […]

Senate Passes FY26 Budget Resolution. After a shorter-than-usual “vote-a-rama,” early this morning the Senate passed its FY26 Budget Resolution by a vote of 50–48, largely on party lines, with Senators Paul and Murkowski voting against it. One Democrat and one Republican—Senators Warner and Grassley—were not present for the vote. The Senate has thus taken a […]

Senate Floor. This evening at 5:30pm, the Senate will vote on confirmation of Executive Calendar #671, Andrew B. Davis to be United States District Judge for the Western District of Texas. Reconciliation 2.0. This week, the Senate will consider a Fiscal Year 2026 Budget Resolution, the text of which will be released tomorrow. Republican Senators […]

The headline read of last week: a fragile Pakistan-brokered U.S.-Iran ceasefire held and meaningfully expanded. Thursday’s ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon renewed market optimism of a durable long-term peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran. As this week begins, markets have been reminded that decision-making on both sides of the war does not portend a […]