As is customary, December will be a busy month, particularly with the annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) nearing completion and representing one of the final legislative trains leaving the station for outstanding congressional and White House priorities.
In addition, House and Senate leaders will be managing a full calendar of committee and floor business, to say nothing of the looming December 31 expiration of the enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies and the January 30 deadline for government funding.
Below is our latest forecast on what to expect for the final work period of 2025.
House Floor Schedule
The House begins its three-week session with a number of suspensions and rule bills, the most notable of which is the Student Compensation and Opportunity through Rights and Endorsements (SCORE) Act to establish a federal baseline for collegiate Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) agreements.
The week of December 8 is being billed as “Permitting Week,” with several recently approved measures from the committees on Energy and Commerce, Transportation and Infrastructure, and Natural Resources slated for consideration. Such bills include the PERMIT Act, which would cut red tape and streamline reviews under the Clean Water Act, and the SPEED Act, which would modernize the NEPA review process.
In addition, the House will look to approve a final pre-conferenced FY26 NDAA next week, assuming negotiators are able to reach an agreement in the coming days (more on the NDAA below).
Finally, the House is tentatively planning to consider a Capital Formation package from the Financial Services Committee the week of December 15, along with any final messaging bills the Leadership deems necessary before the end of the calendar year.
National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)
As of this writing, the House and Senate Armed Services Committees have all but concluded negotiating provisions within their jurisdiction for the FY26 NDAA. While the stated deadline for outside committees to receive “four corner” agreement on off-committee provisions has come and gone, conversations remain ongoing between House and Senate Leadership and secondary committees, as well as with the White House.
The major issues that remain in play include several provisions added by the Senate to their version of the NDAA, including the ROAD to Housing Act (Scott/Warren), BIOSECURE Act (Hagerty/Peters), GAIN AI Act (Banks), outbound investment language (Cornyn/Cortez Masto), as well as revived efforts to enact Russian secondary sanctions and a state AI moratorium. Most-if not all-of these provisions face an uphill battle for inclusion, particularly those that risk a needed bipartisan final passage vote and/or lack support from the White House.
There is limited time left to complete these negotiations as House Leadership is looking to file the bill at the Rules Committee on December 4, paving the way for floor consideration during the week of December 8. Senate concurrence would follow the week of December 15, ensuring enactment before the end of the calendar year.
Kids’ Online Safety Legislation
Later this morning, the House Energy and Commerce tech subcommittee will hold its long-rumored legislative hearing on kids’ online safety. Nineteen bills in total will be discussed (HERE), including revised House versions of the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA) and the Children and Teens’ Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA 2.0).
Chairman Brett Guthrie has repeatedly stated his preference for addressing this overall topic in pieces, rather than in a one-size-fits-all omnibus package. This hearing reflects the Chairman’s strategy, with bills covering topics ranging from modernizing privacy protections, banning targeted advertising to children and teens, requiring age verification for adult websites, improving parental controls and default privacy settings across social media and gaming platforms, limiting harmful design features, and addressing content risks associated with AI chatbots.
The next steps in the process will be determined by House and Committee Leadership following the hearing, with a preference for floor consideration based upon the level of Member interest/support for each particular bill.
Senate Floor Schedule
As with the House, the Senate has only three weeks of session scheduled for the remainder of this year, with a target adjournment date of Friday, December 19.
Last night, the Senate held a cloture vote on David A. Bragdon, of North Carolina, to be United States District Judge for the Middle District of North Carolina. Today, the Senate will confirm Lindsey Freeman, also slated to be District Judge for the Middle District of North Carolina. Beyond these and other routine nominations, Senate Republicans formally introduced S. Res. 520, a resolution consisting of 89 en bloc nominations that have been reported from committees and are on the executive calendar-with an eye towards approval before the end of the year.
While this package will largely clear the Executive calendar, nominees that have not yet been reported out of Committee will still need to be confirmed by the Senate separately in December-for example, Jared Isaacman (NASA) and Scott Mayer (NLRB). Otherwise, these selections run the risk of having to start over next year with renomination by the White House, presuming Senate Democrats withhold consent to hold pending nominations over between sessions of Congress.
FY2026 Appropriations
Legislation that reopened the government in November included three of the twelve full-year annual appropriations bills for FY26: Agriculture, Legislative Branch, and Military Construction/Veterans’ Affairs. The package also included a short-term continuing resolution (CR) covering the remaining nine funding bills through January 30, 2026.
Prior to the Thanksgiving Recess, Senate Republicans and Democrats ran hotlines in an attempt to package together five of the nine remaining funding bills: Defense, Interior, Labor-HHS, Commerce-Justice-Science, and Transportation-HUD.
The shell bill for this package is the House-passed FY26 Defense Appropriations measure, which requires a bipartisan 60 vote threshold to begin debate. Senate Democrats are unlikely to allow that debate to begin absent an agreement to add the aforementioned four bills to the Defense shell-in particular, Labor-HHS. As a matter of Senate Rules, adding any of the four additional bills would require the unanimous consent (UC) of all 100 Senators. Such a UC remains elusive with time running short, though discussions between both sides of the aisle continue.
If progress is not made this month, Leadership and appropriators will need to begin making contingency plans ahead of January 30, including an additional short-term funding patch into the spring or a potential full-year CR for any bills that are unable to clear the finish line.
Health Care
In the wake of reopening the government, Majority Leader Thune promised Senate Democrats a floor vote on extending the ACA premium subsidies by the end of the second week of December. At this point, it remains unclear what Senate Democrats want to vote on, with options ranging from a straight extension of current law to permanence of current law to a shorter-term extension with modifications. Equally unclear is where the White House will come down on extending the subsidies and what, if anything, the Senate GOP will offer as an alternative to the Democrats’ proposal.
A bipartisan group of Senators continues discussing whether there is enough common ground to reach a compromise that can achieve 60 votes, but the odds of that coming together are speculative at best. The most likely outcome remains competing side-by-side votes that both fail to garner enough support to pass, with the true wild card being the President.
Meanwhile, in the House, a group of moderate Members has begun holding their own discussions on what a compromise proposal might look like, though Speaker Johnson has given no such assurances that a framework would receive a vote and is unlikely to preempt any potential actions in the Senate. Instead, a discharge petition appears to be where Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is focusing his caucus’ energy, with only a handful of moderate Republicans being required to break ranks if all House Democrats can coalesce around an agreeable proposal (i.e., a one-year clean extension).
Trade Update
The Administration remains active in pursuing trade agreements with a number of outstanding countries, most notably Brazil and India, as well as formally beginning the statutorily required review of USMCA. These continued negotiations are overlayed with the formalization of term sheets achieved post-“Liberation Day,” a one-year de-escalation reached with China in late October, and ongoing peace talks with Russia and Ukraine.
Perhaps the biggest variable in the trade landscape is the impending decision by the Supreme Court on the President’s use of IEEPA to unilaterally impose tariffs. The uncertainty around the Court’s decision is already leading some countries to hedge in finalizing their term sheets with the Administration.
While the outcome of the case is unknowable at this time, the justices (but for Alito and Thomas) were clearly skeptical of the President’s interpretation of IEEPA during oral arguments in early November. Given that the Court’s skepticism revolves around defining tariffs as a tax, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent touting of rebates has been interpreted as a way to rhetorically reclassify the tariffs as something different than revenue to the government.
On the other hand, there is some conjecture that SCOTUS will side with Texas on its redistricting map so as to soften the blow on striking down the Administration’s interpretation of IEEPA. Chief Justice John Roberts has a history of seeking to moderate the overall national political climate. If the Court rules in favor of Texas early this month (possibly before the December 8 state filing deadline), that could be a harbinger of an unfavorable IEEPA decision to come.
Should the Court rule against the President, the two immediate questions will be how refunds will be processed and what authorities the President will use as an alternative to IEEPA. We expect the Administration to act quickly on the latter question, likely using a number of statutes at its disposal, including:
- Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974
- Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974
- Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962
- Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930
It is important to note that Congress has little ability to authorize tariffs on its own as a majority does not exist in either chamber for such a legislative strategy. Thus, the Administration is on its own to find alternatives to IEEPA. Regardless, we believe tariffs will continue in some form for the near- to medium-term.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. December opens with a House majority that is growing slimmer by the day. Today’s special election to fill the vacancy in Tennessee’s 7th district-normally a routine GOP hold-now carries outsized significance for Speaker Johnson, whose margin for error would be effectively reduced to zero with a loss and the impending resignation of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene in January.
Between absences, retirements, and factional divides, even basic rule votes will be unpredictable in the House as Democrats test whether moderate Republicans can be peeled off on ACA subsidies or potential discharge efforts. All of this overlays a December sprint that includes finalizing the NDAA, dueling votes in the Senate on health care extension proposals, and preparing for the January 30 funding cliff.
With politics hardening and margins tightening, December may prove to be one of the last major windows for meaningful legislative action before the 2026 primary and midterm season consumes Capitol Hill.
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