The House and Senate return this week for a three-week sprint before breaking in advance of the November elections. The major business of September will be passing a continuing resolution (CR) to extend government funding-the final form of which remains in flux-as well as ticking through a range of nominations in the Senate and messaging votes in the House, including the House’s long-promised “China Week.” In addition, the much-anticipated presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will occur this Tuesday evening, possibly affecting the House and Senate floor agendas as lawmakers react to the candidates’ performances and policy views. Please find below an overview of the upcoming work period, in addition to an initial look-ahead to potential lame duck items.
HOUSE
Government Funding. Last Friday, House Republicans released the text of their CR to fund the government through March 28, 2025. The CR would last six months in an effort to forestall the possibility of a lame duck spending deal later in the year. The bill also includes text of the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act sponsored by Chip Roy (TX) that requires documentary proof of citizenship in order to register to vote. House Republicans will attempt to pass this version of the CR on Wednesday, September 11, but it is unclear if they will have the votes to do so, with members like Matt Rosendale (MT) and Thomas Massie (KY) already signaling their opposition.
Regardless of the outcome of the House vote this week, we expect Speaker Johnson to eventually drop his insistence on including the SAVE Act in any final bill and relent to a clean CR. The biggest remaining question is what date the funding deadline is extended to. Appropriators, congressional Democrats, and the White House favor a three-month CR (to December) to allow for potential lame duck dealmaking, including an omnibus. House Republicans, particularly conservatives, favor a six-month CR (to March 2025) to avoid an omnibus and allow for Donald Trump to put his imprimatur on FY25 federal spending should he win election.
Expect the House to remain in session through the duration of September until this funding impasse is resolved.
China Week. This week, the House will pass several rule bills and suspensions that comprise its “China Week.” Of note, this agenda omits key proposals that are still under active negotiation and were not yet ready for floor action but remain possible, including outbound investment/reverse CFIUS and legislation to alter “de minimis” procedures. Speaker Johnson continues to personally engage in negotiations on outbound investment with relevant committee chairs, with the hope of reaching an agreement that can be attached to the FY25 NDAA in December.
China Week rule bills this week include:
- H.R. 1398 – Protect America’s Innovation and Economic Security from CCP Act
- H.R. 1425 – No WHO Pandemic Preparedness Treaty Without Senate Approval Act
- H.R. 1516 – DHS Restrictions on Confucius Institutes and Chinese Entities of Concern Act
- H.R. 7890 – End Chinese Dominance of Electric Vehicles in America Act
- H.R. 9456 – Protecting American Agriculture from Foreign Adversaries Act
Anti-Woke Week. The week of September 16 will see consideration of several messaging bills that target Democrats on a range of topics, from anti-ESG/DEI measures and illegal immigration to opposing climate initiatives and supporting Israel. Note that the week is fluid and could change course pending the outcome of tomorrow’s presidential debate. Rule bills currently on our radar include:
- H.R. 5339 – RETIRE Act
- H.R. 4790 – Guiding Uniform and Responsible Disclosure Requirements and Information Limits Act
- H.R. 4665 – Businesses Over Activists Act
- H.R. 4767 – Protecting Americans’ Retirement Savings from Politics Act
- H.R. 4823 – American FIRST Act
- H.R. 5338 – No Discrimination in My Benefits Act
- H.R. 5337 – Retirement Proxy Protection Act
- H.R. 3724 – Accreditation for College Excellence Act
- H.R. 7683 – Respecting the First Amendment on Campus Act
- H.R. 7909 – Violence Against Women by Illegal Aliens Act
- H.R. 5717 – No Bailouts for Sanctuary Cities Act
- H.J. Res. 136 – EPA Tailpipe Vehicle Emissions CRA
- H.R. 5179 – Anti-BDS Labeling Act
SENATE
Nominations. The Senate reconvenes today and resumes consideration of the nomination of Adam B. Abelson to be U.S. District Judge for the District of Maryland, with a cloture vote on the nomination scheduled for 5:30 pm. Following disposition of the Abelson nomination, likely on Tuesday, the Senate will then vote on whether to invoke cloture on the nomination of Jeannette A. Vargas to be U.S. District Judge for the Southern District of New York. The Senate has confirmed 205 judges during the 118th Congress, and Leader Schumer would like to confirm at least 30 more to surpass the mark of 234 Article III judicial confirmations set during Trump’s previous term. As such we expect a continued dose of nomination votes, both lifetime appointment judges and also executive branch personnel, through September and in the lame duck.
Government Funding. The Senate will also focus on funding the government this work period. Leader Schumer and Senate Democrats have publicly rejected the House CR, both because of inclusion of the SAVE Act as well as March duration. If the House passes its bill as introduced, we expect the Senate would move to remove the immigration language, and possibly change the date of the CR to December to allow for omnibus negotiations to continue. Meanwhile, former President Trump has been vocally advocating for inclusion of the SAVE Act, raising the stakes for the Senate GOP a bit should the House send the combined bill to the upper chamber this week. Senate Republicans have been quiet on the House CR effort thus far, but will seek to avoid a shutdown a month ahead of the election.
Whether on the CR or separately, the Senate will also likely act to address the VA funding shortfall, and, depending on length of the CR, may need to include additional disaster relief funding in the September CR. The CR will carry additional policy extensions as well, though if it only runs into December, items including a Farm bill extension and health extenders may wait until December to be addressed.
Miscellaneous. Beyond appropriations, Leader Schumer has pointed to possible votes on rail safety, insulin pricing, and artificial intelligence legislation, but we do not anticipate there being 60 votes for those matters in September. Schumer could also move to reconsider several failed cloture votes on items relating to abortion policy, IVF and contraception that he could seek re-votes on as well ahead of the election. It is also possible that Senate Democrats could tee up message votes relating to election integrity, including in the AI space, and/or seek a vote on presidential immunity in the wake of the Supreme Court’s ruling several months ago.
LAME DUCK
While there is activity on both the House and Senate floors this month, we anticipate most of the remaining lawmaking this year to happen during the lame duck. Below are a few potential lame duck items, with the caveat that the outcome of the November elections could greatly impact this list as well as the desire of members to focus on legislation or other matters.
Appropriations. If Congress enacts a short-term CR into December (as opposed to a 6-month CR through March), it will once again have to address spending in some form during the lame duck. The result of that could either be another punt (CR) into early next year, or an attempt to cobble together a major spending package(s) during the lame duck itself. The latter seems increasingly improbable if Trump is elected President given the GOP’s inevitable desire to wait until he takes office to deal on spending. Even if government is to be divided next year, a short-term CR might be necessary to give lawmakers time to negotiate final bills early next year. But all of this is subject to member sentiment in the lame duck, which will be heavily impacted by the election results. For example, if the Senate is to flip to GOP control next year, Senate Democrats will likely want to spend most of lame duck confirming lifetime appointment judges while they have the opportunity to do so.
National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). In the coming weeks, we expect the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) to release a bipartisan Manager’s Package that incorporates relatively non-controversial amendments that have been filed to the NDAA. Given that the Senate is not expected to consider NDAA on the Senate floor in September, the SASC Manager’s package will de facto serve as the basis for negotiations with the House on a final bill, which will be completed during lame duck.
Depending on what happens on the spending front in lame duck, NDAA may be the most significant legislative train leaving the station before the end of the year. As such, there is no shortage of member interest in using NDAA as a vehicle to carry additional, unrelated member priorities. In recent years there has been resistance to using must-pass vehicles to carry significant unrelated policy matters, but whether and to what degree NDAA (or a spending bill) do so this December remains in the province of discussions that will occur after the elections.
Below are some of the items that members may seek to include in those discussions, though again, how successful those discussions are is hard to predict at this stage.
Financial Services. Chairman Patrick McHenry (NC) has been successful in marking up, passing, and advocating for legislation from the House Financial Services Committee. He has both left his imprint upon privacy legislation moving through Congress and brought together formidable bipartisan coalitions on digital asset frameworks and capital formation. With the SAFER Act and RECOUP Act continuing to form the gist of the Senate Banking Committee’s bipartisan legislation, there is a potential for dealmaking. McHenry is retiring at the end of the Congress and Brown’s reelection hangs in the balance. Thus, there may be two powerful lawmakers this lame duck in search of legislative legacies.
China Legislation. While the House is considering a number of bipartisan measures this week, the most impactful China-related legislation since enactment of the TikTok divestment bill has been outbound investment restrictions. The relevant chairs remain fundamentally apart when it comes to how best to curb the flow of U.S. investment to Chinese entities that threaten U.S. national security. But it is clear that the Speaker is highly motivated to act in this space, as well as changes to de minimis rules.
Permitting Reform. Following the Senate Energy Committee’s markup of the Manchin-Barrasso permitting reform bill in July, we expect conversations to continue between the various committees with jurisdiction over the issue. Many substantive and jurisdictional hurdles remain, and it is unclear if any additional permitting reforms have a shot at being enacted this year.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. As is tradition, the runup to election season in Congress is a balancing act between political messaging votes by both parties, consideration of must-pass legislation like government funding, and members attempting to set the table for any last gasp bipartisan dealmaking that could be possible in a lame duck.
With polls projecting another razor thin election in 2024 across the White House, House, and Senate, we anticipate a flurry of activity to end the year before an even higher stakes Congress begins in 2025. While reconciliation remains a question mark for next Congress, expiration of portions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) is a certainty, all but assuring massive dealmaking ahead. As always, we will keep you apprised of any relevant updates on the above items