As of this afternoon, the House Committees on Ways and Means, Energy and Commerce, and Agriculture are tentatively planning to markup their portions of the reconciliation bill next Tuesday, May 13.
Committee rules require bill text to be posted at least two legislative days prior to the markup, which would mean this Friday, May 9.
However, we are hearing that several committees-including Ways and Means-will be first posting a “shell” legislative vehicle on Friday in order to meet the minimum requirement for scheduling a markup. The remainder of the bill would then be provided via a more fulsome Amendment in the Nature of a Substitute (ANS), posted 24 hours prior to the start of the markup, likely on Monday, May 12.
For example, the initial text we expect to see from Ways and Means will likely be limited only to extensions of provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), with additional provisions expected to be added in the lead-up to the markup.
As always, this situation is fluid and subject to change. House Republican Leadership had initially pushed for the remaining House committees to complete markups this week, only for those plans to shift at the last minute. Further delays remain a real possibility, with even Speaker Johnson hedging on his self-imposed timeline, saying “If it’s not done before Memorial Day, it will be shortly thereafter.”
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. To date, seven House committees have completed their reconciliation markups with an eighth-Natural Resources-underway now. Collectively, these committees have produced more deficit reduction than required, which is welcome news for House Republican Leadership.
The final three committees, however, were always expected to be the most challenging, with Ways and Means needing to grapple with such issues as federal deductions on state and local taxes (SALT) and Trump campaign tax pledges, while Energy and Commerce and Agriculture are tasked with finding nearly a trillion dollars in mandatory savings without making deep cuts to Medicaid and SNAP.
Finally, House Republican Leadership is reluctant to proceed without at least tacit approval from the White House. While President Trump is largely focused on the broader messaging and political framing of the legislation, his team presented Speaker Johnson with over a dozen new proposals on issues ranging from tax to energy to health during a White House meeting last Thursday. Committee staff are now in the process of vetting those ideas.
While passing a reconciliation bill through the House before Memorial Day remains possible on the current timeline, any further slippage will make that increasingly difficult. We will keep you posted as initial legislative text begins to surface.
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