We will be updating the House process throughout the day as Leadership prepares for a floor vote on The One, Big, Beautiful Bill (i.e., reconciliation).
The House Rules Committee has been meeting on the reconciliation package since early this morning while the Speaker continues to meet with House Republican vote holdouts. To his credit, Speaker Johnson reached a deal with SALT caucus Republicans overnight that will result in them voting for the bill on the floor.
Under the agreement, the personal SALT deduction limit will be increased from the Ways and Means Committee’s $30,000 to $40,000 per filer with a qualifying adjusted gross income (AGI) cap of $500,000 or less. In addition, the policy will be made permanent (i.e., not expire in the 10-year budget window resulting in a cliff) and will increase each year (e.g., some sort of inflation/CPI bump).
Meanwhile, negotiations continue with House Republican deficit hawks led by Rep. Chip Roy, who notably sits on the Rules Committee. These discussions will be ongoing throughout the day with Rules not reporting until that final deal has been made. The contours of the deficit hawk deal are taking shape, however, and we expect them to include:
- Medicaid work requirements effective date moved up to December 31, 2026
- IRA credit expirations moved up to December 31, 2028 (projects “placed in service”) – with a carveout for nuclear – though discussions remain ongoing
Even so, a deal with the deficit hawks remains elusive and more work will need to be done here throughout the day while not alienating moderate/vulnerable Members who care about both Medicaid and various IRA tax credits.
Meanwhile, Rules Committee Democrats purportedly have hundreds of amendments left to file. So even once a final manager’s amendment is posted consisting of the Speaker’s negotiated deals, we could still be looking at multiple hours until the bill is reported from the Rules Committee.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. A vote today remains uncertain, but Leadership is committed to finalizing the reconciliation package sometime today and voting prior to the Memorial Day Recess. Given Leadership’s ability to control the timing of a vote and the immense pressure that any lingering holdouts will feel from President Trump, we continue to believe a successful House vote will occur sometime late tonight or early tomorrow. House Leaders can lose up to 3 Republicans and still secure final passage.
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