The House is now over four hours into a vote to amend the rule that provides for consideration of the Senate Amendment to H.R. 1, the OBBBA. Ironically, the record for the longest House vote in history was set by the then-Democratic majority in 2021 on a vote related to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). It lasted seven hours and six minutes. There is a good chance that record will be broken this evening.
As we previewed this morning, the point of maximum leverage for recalcitrant House Republican Members is the vote on adoption of the rule (a proxy for the bill itself), which is the next scheduled vote in the current series. The House Freedom Caucus knows this, as does the White House and House Republican Leadership, and the ongoing meetings and deliberations behind the scenes are all aimed at securing enough votes to clear this procedural threshold and important litmus test.
Importantly, there are no serious conversations about amending the bill that was transmitted by the Senate. Instead, all conversations surround future commitments to cut spending, Executive Orders to further limit IRA subsidies, as well as specific mechanics on how changes to Medicaid will be implemented.
Equally as important, all House Republicans are now in town and prepared to vote. Attendance should not be a factor on either side unless this impasse drags on into the Fourth of July.
Assuming a breakthrough is reached, the House will adopt the rule and then proceed to one hour of debate on the underlying bill, before voting on final passage later this evening or in the early hours of the morning.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. As predicted, turbulence was in the forecast and the HFC is not willing to go silently on a bill of this magnitude. Nevertheless, the whip count is improving by the hour, with Members such as Victoria Spartz (IN) declaring she will support the final package, as well as Warren Davidson (OH), who previously voted no on the House version of reconciliation.
Finally, as was the case with Senate Leadership, House Leadership is not planning to leave town until the job is done and will use the backstop of the July 4th holiday as added pressure to secure enough votes for passage. We continue to believe that will occur, either late tonight or early tomorrow, in time for an Independence Day bill signing.
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