This morning by a vote of 45-55 the Senate failed to advance to the House-passed six bill minibus that includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) along with other major departments including Defense (DOD); State; Financial Services (FSGG); Labor, Health and Human Services (Labor/HHS); Transportation and Housing (T-HUD).
The vote was largely on party lines, with most GOP Senators voting to proceed and all Senate Democrats voting against. 60 votes are necessary to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed to the bill. One of the no votes cast was from Senate GOP Leader John Thune, who did so for procedural reasons to ensure the Senate can reconsider the vote at a time of his choosing. A handful of GOP Senators also voted no, primarily fiscal hawks and several who are wary of forthcoming attempts to split DHS funding from the rest of the bill.
Democrats opposed moving forward due to continuing disagreements over whether to include DHS funding in the bill, with the GOP arguing that any reforms to ICE can be done by executive authority and the Democrats maintaining that they will not support ICE funding absent more binding legislative language.
Government funding for a host of departments and agencies is due to expire at midnight Friday, less than 36 hours from now. While a “weekend shutdown” stretching into Monday is technical in nature only and will have little to no impact, it is highly likely at this point. That said, this vote should not be taken as a sign that a longer-term shutdown – one extending beyond the early part of next week – is a certainty.
To the contrary, there is growing optimism that Senate Democrats and the White House are nearing agreement that would facilitate passage of five of the six pending funding bills, as Democrats have proposed, while providing for a short-term continuing resolution (CR) for Homeland Security, which the GOP insists on. This would give lawmakers and the White House time to come to agreement on various proposed reforms to ICE which could be implemented by executive action and/or in statute. This comes amid a backdrop of White House attempts to deescalate the situation in Minneapolis following the shooting death of Alex Pretti last Saturday.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. Should a deal be reached between the Senate Democrats and the White House, it could be processed in the Senate relatively quickly, though it will require unanimous consent (UC) to complete prior to Monday. The amended package would then be sent to the House, which is scheduled to return to session on Monday.
Should the Senate send a bill to the House, there will no doubt be Members on both sides of the aisle who are unhappy. House GOP leaders have foreshadowed all week that any changes to the House-passed six bill minibus will create significant vote problems for them. House GOP Leaders could try to pass a party-line rule to take the bill up or put it on the suspension calendar for a vote on either Monday or Tuesday. A suspension vote requires a 2/3rdds supermajority to pass (290), meaning that a coalition of House Republicans and Democrats will be needed to assure passage and send the bill to the President for his signature.
###