SENATE UPDATE
The Senate convenes at 3:00 p.m. today, having invoked cloture Sunday afternoon on Senator Markwayne Mullin’s nomination to serve as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. If no post-cloture time is yielded back, Sen. Mullin will be confirmed this evening at roughly 7:45 p.m. The Senate will also invoke cloture on Colin McDonald’s nomination to serve as Assistant Attorney General for the National Fraud Enforcement Division, with final confirmation on Tuesday.
This is the final week the Senate is scheduled to be in session before a two-week Easter recess, though that recess remains in doubt for two reasons. First, President Trump continues to push the Senate to remain in session until the SAVE America Act, the pending floor business, is passed. Second, Leader Thune has said that a DHS funding deal must pass prior to recess. President Trump is also continuing to press Leader Thune to use the nuclear option to eliminate the legislative filibuster, though that remains unlikely given the lack of sufficient support among Senate Republicans.
SAVE America Act. The Senate is currently debating S.1383, the SAVE America Act. Last week, Leader Thune filled the amendment tree with several Republican amendments, blocking Democrats from offering amendments of their own. At some point this week, Republicans will move to table Senator Tuberville’s second-degree amendment on women’s sports and replace it with a voter ID amendment from Senator Husted. Several procedural votes related to that sequence could occur as early as Tuesday or Wednesday.
Beyond that, the path forward on the SAVE America Act remains unclear. We expect Thune to file cloture at some point in an effort to begin winding down debate with a 60-vote threshold, but the precise off-ramp is still to be determined as internal Republican discussions continue.
DHS Funding. Congress is returning to the news of the deadly plane collision at LaGuardia, following a week of growing TSA lines at airports across the country. With President Trump now dispatching ICE agents to airports, pressure is increasing on Congress to reach a deal this week to fund DHS, or at least large parts of it.
Over the weekend, Republicans and Democrats met to negotiate a DHS funding agreement, and Leader Thune personally pitched President Trump on signing a bill that would fund all of DHS except ICE and CBP, with additional enforcement funding to come later in a party-line reconciliation bill. That approach, which has been pushed by Senators Cruz and Kennedy, was rejected by President Trump, who reiterated that no deals should be made until the SAVE America Act is passed. Thune’s reconciliation pitch is nonetheless notable because it is the first time Senate Leadership has openly discussed using reconciliation this year, and while it hasn’t yet gained traction, it bears close watching (more on that below).
Votes on Privileged Resolutions. The Senate may also vote this week on several privileged resolutions, requiring a simple majority vote. These are not lawmaking exercises, as they would require passage through both the House and Senate and a Presidential signature. Possible votes this week include:
- Sanders Israel Arms Sales Resolutions (S.J.Res.137)
- Iran War Powers Resolutions (S.J.Res.116 and 117)
- IRS guidance re: OBBB beginning of construction for wind/solar energy credits CRA resolution of disapproval (S.J.Res.107)
- VA Abortion Rule CRA resolution of disapproval (S.J.Res.103)
- EPA Colorado Regional Haze Rule CRA resolution of disapproval (S.J.Res.139)
Other Items to Watch
Housing. Discussions are ongoing in both the House and Senate as to the best manner by which to resolve differences between their respective housing bills. While many Senators would prefer the House to simply accept the Senate-passed bill, which passed with 89 votes, the House bill is also bipartisan and some process for resolving differences will be necessary. A formal conference, desired by Ranking Member Waters, can be cumbersome procedurally, but it is a possibility. A more informal negotiation between Senate Banking and House Financial Services is also possible. Key unresolved issues include restrictions on build-to-rent housing, Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) language, NEPA reforms, and CDBG funding.
Warsh Hearing. In early March, the Senate Banking Committee received Kevin Warsh’s nomination paperwork to serve as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. A hearing has not yet been scheduled, though the Administration has generally been supportive of moving sooner than later. It remains possible that a hearing could be scheduled for as soon as mid-April. However, the successful reporting of the nomination remains somewhat in limbo pending the ongoing DOJ investigation into current Chair Jerome Powell. Sen. Tillis, whose vote will be necessary to report the nomination favorably (presuming all Committee Democrats vote against it), continues to make clear that due to concerns over Fed independence he will not vote in favor until the DOJ matter is resolved, fully and transparently.
Last week, Judge Boasberg (District Court of Washington DC) quashed DOJ’s subpoenas targeting Powell, writing that he found “essentially zero evidence” to support a criminal investigation. Rather than use the ruling as an off-ramp, the Administration is appealing, further complicating the timing of Warsh’s confirmation. Chair Powell, for his part, has stated that once his term as Chair expires in May, he intends to remain in place until a successor is confirmed and to continue serving on the Board until the DOJ matter is resolved.
Market Structure. Senate Leadership remains committed to passing a digital assets market structure bill this year, but any action will be contingent on an agreement being reached between the White House, industry stakeholders, and committee leadership on both sides. Should an agreement be reached, it will have to survive complicated election-year politics manifesting in Senate Banking Committee markup and ultimately a 60-vote threshold in the Senate. We are closely monitoring these discussions and will provide updates as they are available.
April Nominations Package. Senate Republicans are also working to assemble an April en bloc nominations package consisting of Trump Administration nominees who are favorably reported from committee by Thursday, April 16 and who have the support of all 53 Republican senators. Major nominees in this package will include Robert Cekada (ATF Director), Steven Pearce (BLM Director), and could include Casey Means (Surgeon General) should the HELP Committee act. We expect the Senate to pass the package the week of April 27.
War Supplemental Request/Disaster Aid. Congress is awaiting formal transmission of a war supplemental from the White House, with the Department of War reportedly requesting sign-off to ask lawmakers for $200 billion. The request from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) may be smaller than $200 billion when sent to Congress, reflecting the skepticism among Republicans for a package of that size. In addition to finding consensus on the size of a package and the process by which it is enacted (reconciliation or regular order), Republicans may add billions in aid for farmers, wildfires, and other disasters. Facing widespread opposition from Democrats to funding Operation Epic Fury, Republicans may have no choice but to negotiate with Democrats on a supplemental package, handing the minority leverage in an election year.
Reconciliation 2.0. There is significant chatter among Republicans about utilizing reconciliation for ICE and CBP funding, Iran war funding, components of the SAVE Act, and/or cracking down on “fraud,” but there is nothing resembling consensus at this point. Most importantly, President Trump has been lukewarm (and at times hostile) to a second package. Given the narrow margins in both chambers, the odds of a successful reconciliation effort this year appear low. That said, leadership in both chambers has tasked committees with identifying legislative options, and those efforts are likely to intensify in the coming weeks.
HOUSE UPDATE
Similar to the Senate, the House is scheduled to be in session this week but will not begin work until tomorrow. Last votes are scheduled for Friday prior to leaving for the two-week Easter recess. The House will return to business on Tuesday, April 14. The House is scheduled to vote on:
- H.R. 8029, Pay Our Homeland Defenders Act (FY 26 DHS funding bill)
- H.Res. 1128, Expressing support for DHS
- H.R. 7084, Defending American Property Abroad Act
- H.R. 5104, Make the District of Columbia Safe and Beautiful Act
Given its narrow majority and the results of midterm primaries to date (and more to come), attendance remains a serious limiting factor for House Leadership and its legislative agenda. House conservatives’ demand for action on the SAVE America Act prior to consideration of any other substantive legislation makes Leadership’s job even more complicated.
In reality, there is not much Leadership can move in a partisan process given the near veto power a single Member of the Conference wields under a tight majority and uncertain daily attendance. The remaining priorities of Leadership are primarily outlined in the Senate Update above, but most certainly include:
- Housing and other House Financial Services Committee priorities (e.g., market structure, capital formation, CBDC, community banking)
- FISA reauthorization – Section 702 (expires April 20)
- FY26 DHS appropriations
- AI Framework and kids’ online safety
- War funding supplemental
- Reconciliation 2.0
Reconciliation is primarily being eyed by Leadership as a potential vehicle for must-pass items that do not enjoy bipartisan support (e.g., FY26 DHS, war supplemental).
Leadership has still not decided on how to move forward with the Senate’s amendment to the House’s housing package. A formal conference is still a possibility and has the support of Ranking Member Maxine Waters. But a quicker approach would be an informal conference whereby the House and Seante agree to compromise language and the House amends the Senate amendment (“ping pong” legislative approach). Given President Trump’s lack of engagement due to the war in Iran, House Leadership does not feel pressure to make an immediate decision.
Regular legislative items fall into a different bucket, particularly the FY27 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), FY27 appropriations, farm bill (or extension), and a surface transportation bill. Those are “regular order” pieces of legislation that have their own momentum and often enjoy bipartisan process support, though comprehensive farm and highway bills remain longshots for this year.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. With the Easter recess bearing down on Congress in two weeks, Senate leaders will attempt to defuse the bitter fight over the SAVE America Act and pass an agreement to fund DHS (in part or whole) as problems increase at airports across the country. The House will vote on a clean DHS funding and other small-ball bills, hampered by a razor-thin majority. To reach an agreement on DHS – by far the most pressing matter – Republicans must find clarity from President Trump on if he would in fact sign a DHS funding bill in lieu of a SAVE America Act resolution, or if his opposition will remain. If an agreement on DHS is reached, the recess may be salvaged, giving members a break before returning to deal with a war/disaster/farm supplemental, housing, and nominations, and continue discussions on market structure, reconciliation 2.0, NDAA, surface transportation, and FISA.
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