The House and Senate return to session next week just days before the first of two government spending deadlines (March 1 and 8). Appropriators and the four corners of congressional Leadership have spent the last week prepping spending measures with an eye towards passing two major appropriations minibuses so as to avert partial (or full) government shutdowns.
Following is an update on where those discussions stand and a look ahead to other issues that may be included or otherwise addressed in the coming weeks and months. Note that House GOP leadership plans to brief the conference on where things stand on a 7:15 PM ET member call this evening, during which time some of the open questions outlined below are likely to be addressed. We will keep you informed as discussions continue.
FY24 Appropriations. The first spending deadline of March 1 encompasses four of the 12 annual appropriations measures: Agriculture (Ag); Military Construction & Veterans’ Affairs (Milcon); Energy & Water; and Transportation, Housing and Urban Development (THUD). These bills are generally less mired in partisan policy fights than others and negotiators are relatively close to closing them out, with THUD less close to resolution than the others.
If Congress is to meet the March 1 deadline, Appropriators will need to publicly post final text by Sunday or Monday. This first minibus would start in the House, which would amend the previously-passed Senate Ag, MilCon, THUD minibus. It would then be up to the Senate to move as quickly as possible to take up and pass the agreement (the legislative vehicle, a message from the House, would help). Assuming agreement comes together in the next few days on all four of those bills, a partial shutdown on March 1 will be avoided.
The remaining eight bills are set to expire one week later and include larger and thornier funding and policy matters such as Defense (DoD); Labor, Health and Human Services (Labor/H); Homeland Security; Interior; and others. Ideally, negotiators would like another week or two to finalize those bills, which would necessitate another short-term continuing resolution (CR). House Republicans have soured on the frequent use of CRs, however, and Speaker Johnson may have a difficult time bringing a funding extension to the floor, though were he to agree to it one could be included in the first minibus. Absent a CR, the March 8 deadline is simply too soon to expect all eight remaining bills to be completed, increasing the risk of a partial shutdown.
NOTE: It is likely that a modest health care package extending expiring programs through the end of the year will be included in one of the above spending vehicles. It is not, however, anticipated that the House-passed tax extenders bill will be included.
Security Supplemental. The two chambers’ dueling approaches to the Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan security supplementals remain at odds. While the House acted first late last year and passed an offset Israel aid package, they have not acted on the Ukraine and Taiwan monies. Meanwhile, the Senate failed to reach agreement on a broader security supplemental and immigration/border security package, reverting instead to an un-offset combined supplemental for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Finally, the House failed to pass an un-offset Irael-only bill. This leaves the House and Senate at a stalemate for the time being with no clear path forward as House Republicans try to determine what, if any, next steps they might take. One option would be to limit funds sent to Ukraine to lethal force use only, but even that is far from certain to gain traction.
Senate Impeachment Trial. Before leaving for its recess, the House impeached Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, the first time a sitting Cabinet official has been impeached in nearly 150 years. The House could send the articles of impeachment papers to the Senate as early as Wednesday, February 28, though it is possible they will continue to hold the papers until FY24 spending issues are resolved so as not to interrupt timely completion of those bills. Whenever the House sends the papers over, the Senate will have to dispense with the House’s action. Several options are available, but rather than conduct a full trial or refer the articles to a committee for further review, it is likely that Senate Democrats will move to dismiss the charges — a procedure first utilized in January 2021 when Sen. Paul raised a point of order against the second Trump impeachment. Dismissal of the charges requires only a simple majority vote, meaning that Senate Democrats have the ability to control the process without input from Senate Republicans.
FAA Reauthorization. The current authorization expires March 8. While the Senate Commerce Committee was able to report legislation this month following a months-long stalemate, it will take beyond March 8 to resolve differences between House and Senate versions of the bill. A short-term extension, probably on the order of two months, is expected in order to give negotiators time to complete action on their five-year reauthorization, which is one of a select few policy authorizations likely to be enacted this year.
FISA Reauthorization. Section 702 of the FISA national security surveillance program expires April 19. The skirmish between House Republican factions regarding how much to reform Section 702 has mostly been resolved, with the majority of the base text agree to. But two sticking points remain between the House Judiciary Committee and the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI), and as a consequence Speaker Johnson hasn’t brought the package to the floor. Ultimately, he will either have to let the disagreement play out on the floor, or roll one committee or the other. Senate Leaders, meanwhile, will focus on moving their own legislation in advance of the deadline, potentially as soon as the spending bills are dealt with.
Additional Senate Legislation. While the Senate calendar through March is likely spoken for, it remains possible that Leader Schumer could, in April or beyond, move to consider one or more of a large number of different pieces of legislation, including:
- Child online safety measures (KOSA/COPPA 2.0) reported by the Senate Commerce Committee last year
- SAFER Banking (cannabis banking legislation) reported by the Senate Banking Committee last year
- House-passed tax extender legislation
- Rail Safety legislation reported by the Senate Commerce Committee last year
- Legislation relating to AI
- Legislation relating to China
- Farm Bill, should it get traction in the Agriculture Committee
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. The next two months are likely to be the most consequential before the November elections from a legislating point of view. Still, just days before a partial government shutdown, major questions persist, including whether and when Speaker Johnson will decide to move forward with legislation that House Republican conservatives oppose, including the FY24 appropriations bills, un-offset supplemental spending for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan (without border security), and a FISA extension that tracks closer to the HPSCI view of the world. All eyes are on Johnson.
At the same time, President Biden is scheduled to give his State of the Union (SOTU) address on March 7. Should a government shutdown-partial or full-become more of a reality in the next week, the SOTU may need to be rescheduled such as it was in 2019.
Despite being fully into a consequential presidential election year (and in the throes of primary season) all is not partisan politics on both sides of the Capitol. The all-consuming topic of artificial intelligence (AI) continues to dominate the financial and political worlds. On the Senate side, Leader Schumer continues to drive towards a broad regulatory framework with the buy-in of some Republicans. On the House side, Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry and Ranking Member Maxine Waters have created a bipartisan AI working group to meet with stakeholders. And just this week, Speaker Johnson and Minority Leader Jeffries announced a bipartisan taskforce on AI, modeled on the China Select Committee. These efforts are broad and amorphous and unlikely to create major legislation this Congress, but they will act as the building blocks for future transformational legislation.
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