The House and Senate both return next week for a short two-week session, followed by a one-week recess, and then a four-week session running to the Memorial Day holiday and recess. While the upcoming two-week work period will be brief, it has the potential to be packed with significant legislation, including FISA/702 reauthorization and potentially a Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan security supplemental. The Senate will also consider the House’s impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Below is what to expect over the coming weeks in Congress.
HOUSE
Steering Committee. On Tuesday, April 9, the House Republican Steering Committee will meet to fill the vacancy atop the House Appropriations Committee made by the stepping down of Chairwoman Kay Granger (TX). The overwhelming favorite to be the next Chair of Appropriations is Tom Cole (OK), though Robert Aderholt (AL) recently called for a delay in the election, stating that the “conference must work together to define a clear direction forward before choosing a Chairman to lead us there.”
As of today, we do not expect Speaker Johnson to heed this call for delay. Assuming Cole’s promotion is recommended by Steering and ratified by the House Republican Conference, a vacancy would be created atop the Rules Committee. We expect such a vacancy to be filled on an interim basis (i.e., through the end of the Congress) by retiring Rep. Michael Burgess (TX).
Articles of Impeachment. On Wednesday, April 10, the House will transmit the two articles of impeachment it adopted against Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to the Senate, formally kicking off a Senate process that is widely expected to result in a prompt dismissal of the case.
Legislation. On the legislative front, House Leadership is largely focused on the crunch of upcoming “must-pass” and expiring items, including FISA, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) reauthorization, and possible supplemental spending packages for Ukraine, Israel, and the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore.
- First up is FISA, with the House slated to consider a reauthorization and reform bill next week. An elusive consensus bill has already been pulled twice, but Leadership is cautiously optimistic that Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (OH) and Select Committee Intelligence Chairman Michael Turner (OH) will be able to thread the needle and send a bill to the Senate in advance of the April 19 expiration date. Next week’s House schedule is also expected to include a Sense of Congress resolution condemning President Biden’s Executive Orders (EOs) related to the Southern Border.
- On the heels of March’s “energy week,” House Republican Leadership is hoping to hold additional theme weeks heading into the spring and summer, tentatively beginning on April 15 with “Consumer Choice Week” built around a slate of Energy and Commerce Committee bills that target costly mandates levied on various home appliances.
- Finally, Speaker Mike Johnson (LA) has been increasingly forward leaning on Ukraine aid, suggesting that it would be his top focus now that Fiscal Year (FY) 24 appropriations have concluded. The Speaker floated multiple “innovations” over the recess that he would look to attach to any Ukraine bill, such as (1) structuring the payment as a loan based on an idea from former President Trump (2) including the REPO for Ukrainians Act, which would repurpose seized Russian assets to pay for the war effort, and (3) a possible roll back of President Biden’s pause on pending liquified natural gas (LNG) exports. While Democrats would likely accept the first two conditions, lifting the LNG pause represents a tougher pill for House Democrats to swallow and could jeopardize the 290 votes needed to pass the foreign aid supplemental on suspension.
Motion to Vacate. Leadership’s decision-making will all be made with the backdrop of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (GA) threat to trigger a vote on the motion to vacate she filed prior to the start of the current recess. Though no additional Republicans have publicly supported Greene’s push to date, actions by Speaker Johnson on FISA and/or Ukraine aid could lead to a vote, with Rep. Chip Roy (TX) stating, “I can promise you, if you put a Ukraine bill on the floor and you haven’t secured the border, there’s going to be a problem within the ranks on Capitol Hill.” Additional members to watch who could defect from Speaker Johnson include Thomas Massie (KY) and Warren Davidson (OH).
Finally, the House will host a Joint Meeting with the Senate this coming Thursday at 11:00 a.m. for the purposes of receiving Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
SENATE
With FY24 spending having dominated the last few months, the Senate will now pivot to other matters as it waits on the House to pass a security supplemental for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The Senate returns on Monday, April 8, to consider several District Court judicial nominations and will likely close out the first week back considering the forthcoming impeachment articles against Homeland Secretary Mayorkas before moving to FISA and other legislative matters in the weeks beyond.
Articles of Impeachment. The House is expected to send impeachment papers to the Senate on April 10. Articles of Impeachment are highly privileged, meaning that the Senate must consider them immediately and dispense with them one way or another. Despite the Senate GOP’s desire for a full trial, it is likely that Leader Schumer will move to table or dismiss the impeachment charges immediately. Senate Republicans can object to having an immediate vote to dismiss, but ultimately, they cannot prevent a dismissal vote from happening. This is because aside from a vote to convict, which requires a 2/3rds super-majority vote, each step of the process is governed by a simple majority; if Senate Democrats remain unified, they will control the process without input from Republicans.
FISA. The second week of the work period is likely to be reserved largely for reauthorization of FISA Sec. 702, which authorizes targeted surveillance of foreign persons outside of the U.S. and expires on April 19. Should the House pass a compromise bill next week, the Senate would likely take it up and either pass it as-is or amend it, depending on what exactly comes over. If the House is unable to act, however, we anticipate that Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (NY) will move to bring a Senate FISA bill to the floor that will probably be an extension of current law. While there could be objections to moving quickly via unanimous consent, ultimately the Senate would likely pass a FISA extension and send it to the House, putting Speaker Johnson under further pressure to bring it up for a vote against the deadline.
Security Supplemental. The Senate continues to wait on the House to vote on a security supplemental, with both Leader Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY) pushing for resolution. While the leaders would prefer the House to take up and pass the Senate-passed $95 billion package, if the House sends an amended supplemental back to the Senate, it is likely that the Senate would move to act on it quickly. Any bill the House passes will necessarily need to be bipartisan and carry over 290 votes, thus limiting the Senate’s ability to further amend.
FAA Reauthorization. The “Big 4” authorizers-Senate Commerce Committee Chair and Ranking Member Maria Cantwell (WA) and Ted Cruz (TX) and House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chair and Ranking Member Sam Graves (MO) and Rick Larsen (WA)-continue efforts to resolve differences between the House and Senate five-year FAA bills. The current extension expires on May 10, creating a firm deadline for the two chambers. If agreement is reached, it is currently anticipated that the Senate would move first with an amendment to the House’s original bipartisan FAA bill. If agreement is not reached in advance of May 10, another extension (duration TBD) will be necessary.
Nominations and CRAs. The Senate will also consider further nominations and Congressional Review Act (CRA) Resolutions of Disapproval over the coming two work periods. The next potential CRA votes include those relating to the NLRB Joint Employer rule, as well as DOT National Highway Greenhouse Gas Emissions Performance Standards. We also expect CRAs to be introduced to overturn OSHA walkaround rule and the SEC climate disclosure rule.
Tax. The bipartisan House-passed tax bill remains stuck in a Senate quagmire, with little progress made in resolving differences between Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (OR) and Ranking Member Mike Crapo (ID). There continue to be rumors that Leader Schumer might test Senate GOP resolve by filing cloture on the Motion to Proceed to the House-passed bill, but with legislative deadlines looming over the next few weeks that seems unlikely to occur before May, if at all. In the meantime, it remains possible that a bipartisan breakthrough could be had, but prospects are dimming as tax filing day passes and we inch closer to the November elections.
Additional Possible Legislative Items. Beyond the items above, there is a long list of legislation that Leader Schumer has expressed interest in bringing to the floor, though no real indication as to which bills will be prioritized, on what timeline, and which, if any, would be lawmaking exercises. Among those possible in May and through the summer months:
- Kids Online Safety Act
- Executive Compensation (RECOUP Act)
- Cannabis banking (SAFER Banking Act)
- Railway safety (Railway Safety Act)
- China legislation
- Domestic supplemental for Baltimore (if not included in security supplemental)
- TikTok divestment
Appropriations. Members of both parties remain interested in pursuing FY25 appropriations bills, though there’s no expectation that any legislation would be agreed to with the House ahead of September 30, at which point a CR running beyond the election will be necessary. How fulsome a process occurs in the Senate Appropriations Committee-and whether any bills make it to the Senate floor-are questions without answers at this point, with the ink barely dry on the FY24 appropriations measures. While that will be sorted over time, the Senate Appropriations Committee and Subcommittees will have a number of hearings with Cabinet Secretaries and Agency heads over the coming six weeks between now and Memorial Day.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. The upcoming two work periods represent the beginning of the end of significant legislating prior to the November election. Once again, all eyes will be on Speaker Johnson and how he chooses to navigate not only the legislative landmines, but the potential procedural landmines in the form of a motion to vacate. Passage of the two FY24 minibus appropriations bills represented significant wins for the new Speaker. But the upcoming stretch will be equally challenging, with inflection points on supplemental spending and FISA rapidly approaching.
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