This week is shaping up to be one of the more consequential of the Congress, which is quite the statement given all that has transpired to date. Please see below for our latest state of play, with an emphasis on the House.
Security Supplemental Package
As has been reported and was detailed in our note early last evening, Speaker Mike Johnson is moving forward with a plan to bring supplemental security spending (and tangential items) to the House floor under a rule this Saturday, April 20.
A total of four bills will receive separate up-or-down simple majority votes, the first three of which provide supplemental funding for Israel, Ukraine, and the Indo-Pacific; and the fourth of which includes other somewhat related policy priorities (more on the fourth bill below). The amendment process remains to be determined, though some amendments are currently expected to be made in order.
Assuming each bill passes, they would be combined (“MIRV’ed”) under the rule and sent to the Senate as one bill. Text has been posted for each of the three security supplementals and is linked here:
Also linked here is a summary of the legislation from the House Appropriations Committee. The President has expressed public support for the security portion of the package.
The Fourth Bill: TikTok Divestment
Notably, the fourth bill has not yet been publicly posted. It is expected to include the House-passed TikTok divestment bill with an additional 180-day extension at the discretion of the President for a total of 360 days to divest.
Also likely to be included is House Energy and Commerce Committee Ranking Member Frank Pallone’s (D-NJ) data brokers bill that passed the House 414-0, the REPO Act (use of seized Russian assets for Ukraine aid), lend-leaselanguage, and additional sanctions bills targeted at Russia, China, and Iran. All of this is being coordinated with the Senate and the White House.
The Speaker has committed to moving a fifth bill this weekend that would include key elements of H.R. 2, the House-passed comprehensive border security and immigration reform legislation from last spring. This fifth bill would be independent of the supplemental package and thus, likely to be ignored or quickly dispensed with by the Senate Democratic majority.
Motion to Vacate
Unlike how Johnson has approached other bipartisan coalition issues like the two FY24 appropriations minibuses and the two-year FISA extension, the Speaker is pursuing a rule for the supplemental security spending package. There is concern that the package would fall short of the 2/3rds majority needed should it be considered as a suspension. The problem with the rule approach, however, is that Speaker Johnson is likely short of the Republican votes needed to report it out of the Rules Committee.
House Democrats have signaled support for the rule both in the Rules Committee and on the House floor. The latter is not without precedent, but the former is unprecedented in the modern House. We expect that fact to lead to Rep. Majorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) offering a motion to vacate the Chair (MTV). The timing and privilege of the motion is fluid but could be imminent.
Should a MTV be offered, the question will first be on a motion to table. This helps protect Members from a direct vote on the underlying motion. Should this occur, House Democrats have indicated that they may assist Speaker Johnson by either “taking a walk” (and not voting on the motion to table) or voting aye on the motion to table.
Taking a walk would result in a lowering of the threshold Johnson needs for a simple majority to table the MTV. Speaker McCarthy was offered no such charity in October, with all House Democrats voting with eight House Republicans against the motion to table and for the motion to vacate, thus leading to his removal and the installation of Patrick McHenry (R-NC) as Speaker Pro Tempore.
China Select Committee Report
We have been told that the House Select Committee on China will be releasing a committee report this week. As he previously announced, Select Committee Chairman Mike Gallagher (R-WI) is planning to resign his congressional seat this Friday, April 19. His timeline may very well extend into the weekend as the House is scheduled to vote on the three security supplementals and other tangential legislation this Saturday, April 20.
Regardless, Gallagher will resign from Congress at some point over the next few days. Thus, his releasing a summary report prior to his resignation is not a surprise. The contents of the report, however, are very much a close hold. We have heard that asset managers may be highlighted, but few other details. While Leadership has confirmed that the report is expected this week (perhaps as soon as tomorrow), they have not been able to share its contents or what the goal of the report is (e.g., introduction of legislation, floor action on previous reports, etc.).
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. Speaker Johnson remains in active discussions with both Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and the White House over the content of the security supplemental and the inclusion of tangential legislation, including the forced divestment of TikTok.
We view the possibility of TikTok legislation reaching the President’s desk in the next few weeks, along with security spending for Israel, Ukraine, and the Indo-Pacific, to be in the realm of 75 percent. This is a significant geopolitical development.
The Senate’s vote timing is not locked down as the Upper Chamber is scheduled to be out of session next week, returning Monday, April 29. Not yet known is whether Leader Schumer will abandon recess in order to vote more expeditiously on the package. We will continue to keep you updated on the process and timing for the security bill advancing in both chambers.
Should a motion to vacate be offered and tabled as a result of the above process, Speaker Johnson will likely remain in his leadership position through the end of this Congress, albeit with help from House Democrats (either direct or indirect). House Leadership’s ability to move Republican-only legislation will be further diminished and the infighting in the House Republican Conference could reach new heights.
For example, there has been informal talk of Members being voted out of the House Republican Conference and losing committee assignments. To be clear, that has not come directly from Leadership; rather it is a rank-and-file driven suggestion that could gain a groundswell of support by the weekend should the circumstances above all play out. Stay tuned.
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