Senate Passes FY26 Budget Resolution. After a shorter-than-usual “vote-a-rama,” early this morning the Senate passed its FY26 Budget Resolution by a vote of 50–48, largely on party lines, with Senators Paul and Murkowski voting against it. One Democrat and one Republican—Senators Warner and Grassley—were not present for the vote. The Senate has thus taken a significant step toward Reconciliation 2.0, and the budget debate now shifts to the House for further action as soon as next week.
Amendments. Unlike most recent vote-a-ramas, which regularly feature 40+ amendment votes, the Senate voted on just 16 amendments last night, 12 of which were offered by Senate Democrats. Only one amendment, offered by Budget Committee Chairman Senator Lindsey Graham, was adopted. It establishes a “deficit-neutral reserve fund” relating to the apprehension and deportation of illegal aliens convicted of various serious crimes. Like the Democratic amendments, it is not binding and serves primarily as a messaging tool. It was adopted by a vote of 98–0.
The remaining 15 amendments were voted down largely along party lines, with a few GOP senators occasionally voting with Democrats. These messaging amendments addressed themes including:
- Lowering consumer costs (health care, groceries, home electricity), as well as tariffs and the Iran war
- Most Favored Nation mandates for pharmaceuticals
- Health insurance company practices
- Hedge fund ownership of single-family homes
- The SAVE America Act
“Skinny” Reconciliation Instructions. Despite some member interest in broadening the scope of reconciliation to include “affordability measures,” if unchanged by the House, the FY26 Budget Resolution principally accomplishes one objective: enabling a legislative reconciliation process to fund Border Protection and ICE for roughly three years. To do so, it instructs two Senate committees (Judiciary and HSGAC) and two House committees (Judiciary and Homeland Security) to report legislation that increases the deficit by no more than $70 billion each.
Despite the maximum $140 billion allocation, GOP leaders have explicitly stated they anticipate the final bill will total approximately $70–80 billion. The reconciliation instructions do not contemplate funding other portions of DHS, which are expected to be funded separately through FY26 under the bill that passed the Senate unanimously last month and is now awaiting action in the House.
The Budget Resolution does not instruct additional committees (e.g., House Ways & Means/Senate Finance; Senate Banking/House Financial Services; Senate Commerce/House Energy & Commerce), meaning items under their jurisdiction are not included in this reconciliation effort. Leadership also does not expect the legislation to be offset, arguing that it funds activities typically handled through annual appropriations, which are also not offset. In order to leave room to address additional issues, however, Senate GOP leadership is not ruling out a third reconciliation bill that could include a broader set of policies, but they do not want to delay this funding in the interim.
Action Moves to the House. House GOP leadership is cautiously optimistic that it can pass the FY26 Budget Resolution without changes next week. If successful, the Senate is expected to move quickly to originate the implementing legislation, with the goal of bringing it to the Senate floor during the week of May 11. The House would then aim to pass it before the Memorial Day recess.
However, House leaders must first address many of the same member concerns seen in the Senate—particularly calls from a vocal group to broaden reconciliation to include additional items, largely focused on affordability, and potentially supplemental war funding. Doing so would require amending the Budget Resolution and sending it back to the Senate, which could jeopardize passage in both chambers due to disagreements over scope, cost, and offsets. It would also delay the process, which otherwise is on track for quick completion.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. The Senate’s action, combined with strong White House support for the “skinny” budget resolution—focused solely on funding Border Protection and ICE—gives House GOP leaders a compelling argument to advance the measure next week and enable legislation in May, consistent with the Administration’s timeline. However, as recent months have shown, a narrow House majority presents challenges, and member interest in expanding the scope of reconciliation remains significant.
A key question next week is whether the prospect of a third reconciliation process will be sufficient to persuade members to proceed quickly with Reconciliation 2.0. As the Senate exercise demonstrated, when confronted with having to make a yes/no decision, opposition to funding Border Protection and ICE among the GOP is limited, suggesting that this narrower reconciliation effort is likely to advance. As a result, further discussion of a potential Reconciliation 3.0 is likely in the coming months.
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