Earlier this evening, House Republican Leadership posted the text of the final negotiated continuing resolution (CR), as well as a bill authored by Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) to offset the emergency disaster relief money included in the CR. The latter is a “messaging bill” that is unlikely to pass under suspension and possibly not under a rule (nor will it pass the Senate). Meanwhile, a few notable CR provisions worth highlighting include:
- Extension of current discretionary funding levels until March 14, 2025
- Outbound investment and sanctions regime aimed at the People’s Republic of China (page 167)
- Health extenders, including health policies like PBM reform (page 386)
- Bipartisan A Stronger Workforce for America Act, updating WIOA (page 940)
- One-year extension of the Farm Bill to September 30, 2025, with an additional $10 billion in emergency economic aid for American farmers suffering losses due to “weather and market related conditions” (page 1,532)
Speaker Mike Johnson and the House Republican Leadership continue to discuss next steps towards consideration of the two bills on the House floor. At this point, a vote on the CR is expected no later than Thursday.
It is more likely than not that the CR will be considered under suspension of the rules, though the Speaker continues to pursue the option of a rule. The latter remains difficult given likely opposition from Republican Rules Committee members like Thomas Massie (R-KY), Ralph Norman (R-SC), and Chip Roy. That is not to say passage under suspension will be easy. A winning coalition of bipartisan Members to reach the necessary 2/3rds threshold (i.e., 290 votes in a full House) will require a near unanimous vote of House Democrats.
To be sure, Speaker Johnson heard from a diverse group of House Republicans at this morning’s Conference meeting, expressing concerns with the CR negotiations. While Leadership’s intention is to only bring forth major legislation that can achieve a “majority of the majority” on the House floor, that prospect could be in doubt. A large Democratic vote will further drive down House Republican support in light of un-offset disaster funding.
While outside conservative influencers are weighing in against the disaster funds, it remains to be seen whether President-elect Trump will opine. As such, we expect the next 24-48 hours to be decidedly uneven for Leadership and the CR.
Factoring into all of the above is the vote for Speaker on the opening day of the 119th Congress. As played out in dramatic fashion at the start of the 118th Congress, House Republicans struggled to elect a Speaker, requiring 15 different manual roll call ballots before Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) finally received the requisite absolute majority of those present and voting. When Speaker McCarthy was vacated from the chair by then-Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) last fall, it took House Republicans failing to elect three candidates for Speaker before unifying behind Mike Johnson. With a House majority of 219-215 Members expected at the start of the 119th Congress (Gaetz seat vacant, but Elise Stefanik (R-NY) and Mike Waltz (R-FL) still voting until January 20), Johnson can only afford to lose one House Republican and still receive the requisite 218 votes needed to be elected Speaker if all 434 Members-elect are present and voting. In other words, navigating the politics of the CR requires a good deal of finesse.
Meanwhile, the Senate must sit and wait for the House to act. Once the House transmits a CR to the Senate, we expect objections from conservatives to expediting the timeline, possibly pushing the government into a technical shutdown, although OMB can manage a short-term disruption with minimal impact. Or, Senators may agree to allow passage on an expedited basis in exchange for an amendment vote or votes. Either way, it is highly unlikely that there will be a government shutdown of any significance.
The CR will thus close out legislative action in the 118th Congress. The 119th Congress will convene on Friday, January 3, at 12 noon.
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