Following a day of tumult the House will not be voting on the previously-posted Continuing Resolution (CR) this evening, leaving open what and when they may vote next. That decision follows a difficult day for House GOP leadership, which began with what appeared to be manageable pushback from the House Freedom Caucus, but which grew as the day unfolded to encompass a broader swath of the GOP rank-and-file. While once looking likely to secure the 290 votes necessary for passage on the House’s suspension calendar, prospects rapidly dimmed this afternoon before being extinguished completely by President-elect Trump late in the day.
Opposition to the agreed-upon CR from a broad swath of members began to rise to uncomfortable levels following a chorus of influential outside conservative voices tweeting against it. While previously silent on the matter, the afternoon culminated with President-elect Trump stating his outright opposition to the legislation on the grounds that it is a giveaway to Congressional Democrats and doesn’t include an increase in the statutory debt limit.
To recap, the filed CR included government funding into mid-March, but also included a variety of other provisions that were negotiated with Congressional Democrats, including:
- Outbound investment and sanctions regime aimed at the People’s Republic of China
- Health extenders, including health policies like PBM reform
- Bipartisan A Stronger Workforce for America Act, updating WIOA
- One-year extension of the Farm Bill to September 30, 2025, with an additional $10 billion in unoffset emergency economic aid for American farmers suffering losses due to “weather and market related conditions”
- $100 billion in unoffset emergency disaster relief, primarily for the states in the southeast impacted by severe weather this year
- Congressional Member pay COLA increase
At this moment it is unclear what will follow next. House Republican leadership has been considering a “Plan B” that would include government funding to mid-March, plus a farm bill extension, and very little else. However, they will still need Democratic votes to pass such legislation, and thus far Democrats are balking at that proposal. To further complicate matters, we also expect farm state members and delegations impacted by natural disasters to continue to insist on extra aid being attached to any spending bill, setting up a confrontation with GOP members critical of unoffset spending in the bill. Finally, President Trump followed up his earlier comments this evening with another Truth Social post asserting his opposition to a clean CR that doesn’t include a debt limit increase, and calling for GOP members to be primaried should they support it.
Taken together, the prospect of a government shutdown, even if just into the weekend or early next week, is elevated, with the Christmas break likely to act as the forcing agent that will break the current impasse. While we still anticipate government spending is likely to be worked out in the next few days, today’s events foreshadow the difficulty Congressional Republicans will have in balancing the incoming Administration’s demands while threading the needle with a wafer-thin majority next year. We will keep you updated as discussions continue tonight into tomorrow.
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