Today, House Republicans released the text of a continuing resolution (CR) to fund the government through the end of the fiscal year (September 30, 2025). While the CR is mostly “clean” (i.e., largely funds current programs at existing FY24 levels), it does contain a number of anomalies (outlined below), some of which fund Democratic priorities. House Appropriations Committee Chairman Tom Cole’s (R-OK) press release can be found here.
The House Rules Committee has noticed a meeting for this Monday to consider the CR and provide a rule for its consideration on the House Floor on Tuesday (the House leaves for recess on Wednesday). Assuming the House is able to pass the CR, the Senate is expected to take up the measure in short order in order to avoid the looming March 14 midnight government funding deadline.
President Trump has endorsed the legislation, as has the House Freedom Caucus. While Thomas Massie (R-KY) will vote no, House Republicans may still be able to pass the bill on their own. Whether House Democrats support the measure remains unclear. House Appropriations Committee Ranking Member Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) released a statement strongly opposing the bill after Republicans posted the text. The House Democratic Leadership also released a statement on Friday prior to the release of text seemingly opposing a clean CR given forthcoming cuts expected in the reconciliation process.
Senate Minority Leader Schumer (D-NY), meanwhile, has been much less aggressive in his public comments about a CR and seems content to let his members vote their will. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) will vote no, similar to Rep. Massie, but Senator John Fetterman (D-PA) has already publicly backed a clean CR.
Anomalies and Topline Details
- Provides $708 for non-Defense spending ($13 billion reduction from FY24 largely by zeroing out earmark funding)
- Provides $892.5 billion for defense (~$6 billion increase from FY24)
- Provides DOD new start authority (atypical under a CR)
- Fully funds Veterans healthcare
- Freezes $20.2 billion in IRS funding under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)
- Additional $567 million for the Women Infant and Children’s program (WIC)
- Increases funding for air traffic control priorities over FY24 levels
- Additional housing assistance monies
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. At this point, passage-while not assured-looks likely in both chambers. Without Democratic help, House Republicans can only lose one vote and pass the bill. With Massie already a declared no, Republicans have no margin for error. That said, we expect vulnerable and moderate House Democrats will want to avoid a government shutdown and thus might be likely to support this mostly clean CR.
On the Senate side, Republicans will need eight Democrats to vote with them (given Paul’s no vote) to overcome a filibuster, unless more GOP no votes emerge. Much like the House, we believe swing seat Democrats, particularly those in cycle, will support the bill. In either case, both House and Senate votes will likely be close and bear watching.
Should Congress clear the CR and send it to the President’s desk by March 14, House and Senate Republicans will be able to fully pivot to bicameral negotiations in earnest over a unified budget resolution, arming reconciliation for extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), supporting the President’s additional tax priorities (e.g., no tax on tips or overtime, Social Security tax relief, lower domestic manufacturing rate, etc.), providing additional money for the Department of Defense and border security, increasing domestic energy production, modifying or repealing parts of the IRA, reforming government, and enacting deficit savings, among other items.
For now, the goal of Republican Leadership remains to pass a reconciliation for President Trump to sign no later than Memorial Day, May 26. This is an ambitious timeline given the challenges ahead. Ultimately, the debt limit’s “x date” may drive the timeline for when Congress acts on a reconciliation bill, which may not occur until mid-summer, depending on tax collections and payments.
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