The Senate has remained in session over the weekend as the government shutdown reaches its 40th day, making this the longest closure in history. The Sente will gavel in again today, beginning at 1:30 p.m., as Republicans continue to search for a path forward with a dozen of their Democratic colleagues.
Topline. There have been signs of bipartisan progress. The Senate GOP is close to releasing a finalized bipartisan three-bill appropriations minibus that would fund portions of the government through September 30, 2026, along with a continuing resolution (CR) that will fund remaining agencies and programs into late-January. The CR for the unfinished nine appropriations bills is meant to provide appropriators time to complete all spending work for FY26. The hope is that this package is ready to be released later today.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) outlined this plan several weeks ago, pointing to largely bipartisan consensus on the FY 26 Military Construction/Veterans’ Affairs, Agriculture, and Legislative Branch appropriations bills. To this point, Senate Democrats have been unwilling to finalize these three bills and there remain GOP disagreements over various funding provisions included therein.
With pressure to open the government building, however, Senate Appropriations Committee Ranking Member Patty Murray (D-WA) has reengaged in the negotiations. Should this minibus deal be reached, it is possible that the Senate will vote on a motion to proceed as soon as today. Whether the package can achieve 60 votes of support remains to be seen, but reports from Leadership indicate newfound optimism. More on all of this below.
Emerging Deal. In a floor speech on Friday, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) indicated congressional Democrats are unified on requiring a one-year extension of the expiring ACA enhanced tax subsidy in order to re-open the government, a position immediately rejected by Senate and House Republicans and the President. Despite Schumer’s rhetoric to the contrary, there has been forward progress in the last two days on the GOP’s approach.
Public pressure is building, especially with the FAA asking airlines to cancel hundreds of flights each day in order to preserve safety in the airspace. Cancelations will continue escalating by the day which will bring travel chaos to millions with the holiday travel season quickly approaching.
Vote Count. To date, only three Senate Democrats have voted to re-open the government: senators John Fetterman (D-PA), Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-NV), and Angus King (I-ME). At least five more votes are needed to clear the 60-vote threshold necessary to end debate in the Senate. Making this more complicated, Leader Schumer is not part of the ongoing discussions. Instead, Senate Republicans are negotiating with about a dozen moderate Senate Democrats who Republicans think are most likely to vote to open the government. Thus, whether the emerging minibus when paired with the CR can clear 60 votes remains unknown, but there’s more optimism in the Capitol than over the last few days.
Process. Though the outcome remains uncertain, it is likely that later today the Senate will vote, for the 16th time, on whether to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed to the House-passed clean CR, an initial hurdle they’ve been unable to clear for the last six weeks. This time, however, indications are that a bipartisan agreement may be reached and published by the time of the vote. Leader Thune will then offer this as a substitute to the House-passed CR. The substitute will make two primary modifications:
- Change the date of the House-passed CR from November 21 to late January; and
- Add the finalized FY26 MilCon/VA, Agriculture, and Legislative Branch appropriations bills.
If 60 votes exist on cloture on the motion to proceed, there are still a variety of procedural hoops that the Senate will need to work through. Without cooperation, these steps could take most of the work week to complete. However, with unanimous consent of all 100 Senators this process can be sped up significantly. For example, once it is clear legislation has the support it needs to pass, Senators often agree to collapse the hours required between cloture votes (up to three of which are necessary here). Timing of final passage in the Senate is thus wholly dependent upon the goodwill of 100 Senators and could range from late tonight or tomorrow to much later in the week (e.g., Friday).
Senate Filibuster Remains Intact. Despite a public pressure campaign from the President and some of his allies, the Senate GOP does not intend to attempt to eliminate the legislative filibuster, nor would there be sufficient votes in the Senate to do so. In addition to most Senate Republicans, all Senate Democrats would oppose such a move, despite the vast majority of them having supported doing so in limited circumstances in 2022 when Democrats last controlled the House, Senate and Presidency.
House Outlook. The House remains on 48-hour recall notice. Once it is clear that the Senate can clear an initial 60-vote test, we expect House Republican Leadership to notify Members that the House will return to session. Thus, if the Senate were to clear the package tomorrow, the House could return as early as Wednesday, November 12. House Leadership will seek to avoid being in session during the Veterans’ Day holiday on Tuesday.
While passing the Senate’s amendment under suspension of the rules would make for the quickest procedural option in the House, a 290-vote threshold for such a move would be problematic. Instead, Leadership will provide for the Senate’s amendment to be considered under a closed rule, making final passage a simple majority vote. This will require the Rules Committee to notice its meeting and the House to consider and debate both a rule and the Senate’s amendment, meaning Members will cast multiple votes on the floor.
Votes in the House are bound to be messy and rules are typically partisan votes. Some House Republicans will balk at supporting the Senate’s minibus. Others will balk at the length of the CR, with some House Freedom Caucus members preferring a one-year CR. Thus, the vote on the rule will be a tricky needle for Leadership to thread. Final passage of the Senate’s amendment, however, will likely be a bit more bipartisan.
We will keep you posted as things continue to develop today and into the week.
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