This is not the Senate outlook we anticipated sending 24 hours ago. What seemed like a relatively straightforward week upcoming in the Senate-the single biggest complicating factor being the weather-has turned on its head in the wake of another fatal shooting by a Federal agent in Minneapolis. As a result, another government shutdown is possible – an outcome that was all but dismissed by each of the Congressional leaders over the last several weeks.
Background
Six of the annual 12 FY26 annual appropriations bills that fund the discretionary budget of the Federal government have been enacted in law. The remaining six bills-which comprise the vast majority of annual discretionary spending-are operating under a continuing resolution (CR) that expires at midnight this Friday, January 30.
Last week, before leaving DC for its scheduled one-week recess, the House passed the last four of its bills (Defense, Labor-HHS, Transportation-HUD and Homeland Security) and packaged them together with two additional spending bills that the House had passed the week prior (Financial Services-General Government and State-Foreign Operations). Thus, when the Senate convenes tomorrow it will receive one combined six-bill “minibus” funding bill for its consideration this week, before the CR expires at the end of Friday.
The plan had been for the Senate to take up the House-passed package and vote on it as-is. Any changes to the minibus would necessitate further action from the House, which is now in recess and not scheduled to return until Monday, February 2. While the Homeland Security component of the package passed the House under a separate vote with just seven Democrats voting in favor, the overall package was widely bipartisan. Senate passage, which requires 60 votes at various steps of the process, was all but assured. Until yesterday.
Next Steps
Following the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and a growing chorus of rank-and-file Democratic senators have publicly stated that they will oppose the DHS funding bill unless restrictions on Federal agents are included. This group includes several of the eight Senate Democrats who voted to re-open the government in November. Most of these statements have been purposefully vague. While these senators assert they will not support the DHS appropriations measure as passed by the House, they are less clear as to whether they would support a full-year CR for DHS (or any other bills) as part of a newly-negotiated package.
The most obvious problem is that the DHS appropriations measure cannot be separated or amended without requiring further action of the House. Meaning, if the Senate changes so much as a word of the package, a shutdown of at least several days becomes likely.
Senate Republicans, for their part, have been silent as regards to what they will do, choosing to give Democrats space to determine a specific and actionable ask that can successfully avert a shutdown. Once they do, the White House will have to determine if they can accept a revised agreement.
Possible options are numerous. They could span revising the language of the minibus to moving a bill outside of it. Democrats will likely push to remove ICE from Minneapolis, no doubt a non-starter for the President. At this stage, the best way to think about the situation is everything is on the table as the Senate prepares to gavel in tomorrow to receive the House-passed six-bill minibus, though most senators will not be back in the Senate until Tuesday.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. Put simply, there is no clarity at this time and the situation remains fluid. Some items to watch for in the coming 24 hours include: whether Senate Democrats begin to develop specific legislative language and process options following their emergency caucus call today; any pronouncements from key/swing Senate Republicans (e.g., Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-ME) is expected to speak on the Senate floor at 3pm on Monday); and what, if anything, President Trump says or posts on Truth Social.
We will continue to update you as information becomes available and provide further information with operational/agency information if we draw nearer to a possible shutdown.
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