Following negotiations between President Trump and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), the Senate passed an amended funding package late Friday consisting of a five-bill appropriations minibus plus a 14-day continuing resolution (CR) for Homeland Security (DHS) through February 13. The bill passed by a vote of 71-29, with roughly half of the Senate Democratic caucus supporting the measure, along with all but five Senate Republicans. The structure of the deal-full year funding for five discretionary spending bills with DHS carved out-is designed to end a partial government shutdown that began at 12:01 a.m. on Saturday while allowing for continued negotiations around immigration enforcement reforms over the next two weeks.
In the House, GOP leadership initially signaled that it might move the Senate package under suspension of the rules on Monday, the fastest path to enactment. That approach would have forced Democrats to either supply enough votes to reach the two-thirds threshold required for suspension passage or publicly own the continuation of a shutdown.
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), however, apparently felt no such obligation to support the deal reached by his fellow delegation mate Leader Schumer, signaling in private that House Democrats were not inclined to vote for the bill under suspension. Rather than force Jeffries’ hand publicly, GOP leadership will now attempt to proceed to the funding package under a party-line rule-requiring a simple majority for passage-with Rules Committee action scheduled for Monday and House floor consideration expected no earlier than Tuesday.
At the same time, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) and other conservatives are pressing to use the funding vehicle as a means to enact the SAVE Act-a bill that passed the House last year to require proof of citizenship and photo ID to vote in federal elections-with Luna threatening to withhold support on a procedural rule if this measure is not included.
Further complicating the math is yesterday’s special election victory of Democrat Christian Menefee in Texas’s 18th Congressional District. Menefee is expected to be sworn in imminently, which will bring the House breakdown to 218 Republicans and 214 Democrats. In practical terms, this means Speaker Johnson (R-LA) can afford to lose no more than one Republican on any party-line vote (e.g., a rule vote), assuming full attendance.
OUTLOOK / ANALYSIS. From a purely tactical perspective, the suspension route was the cleanest and fastest option available to House leadership, particularly given the Senate’s strong bipartisan vote and the optics of forcing Democrats to actively sustain a shutdown. Walking away from that path cedes leverage and extends the timeline, increasing both procedural risks and internal bargaining costs for Speaker Johnson.
Staring down a 218-214 majority, House GOP leadership must now pass a party-line rule with no margin for error that does not simultaneously imperil the larger spending bill. One potential scenario to do so would be to allow a SAVE Act amendment vote on the floor-designed to fail, perhaps with GOP Appropriators voting no-thereby giving conservatives a recorded vote on the issue and leadership a way to move the funding bill without triggering another round of House-Senate ping-pong and an even longer shutdown.
If past is prologue, we expect the House will ultimately clear the Senate package unamended-looking to President Trump for some last-minute whipping-but not after a few fits and starts along the way that could bleed into the middle of the week or beyond. Moreover, while the broader funding fight may be resolved by week’s end, the much thornier politics around immigration enforcement and federal election policy are far from over and will continue to give headaches to party leaders in both chambers-particularly in the lead up to the new February 13 cliff for DHS funding.
Ultimately, this all distracts from Republicans’ efforts to get back on the cost-of-living message, with agenda items such as housing policy further delayed in both chambers and the forthcoming tax benefits of the reconciliation bill overshadowed.
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