Late last evening, the House Rules Committee reconvened and reported a rule providing for consideration of three security supplementals and the TikTok (and related items) “sidecar” bill:
- H.R. 8034, the Israel Security Supplemental Appropriations Act
- H.R. 8035, the Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act
- H.R. 8036, the Indo-Pacific Security Supplemental Appropriations Act
- H.R. 8038, the 21st Century Peace through Strength Act
Notably, the vote in committee was 9-3, with Reps. Massie (R-KY), Norman (R-SC), and Roy (R-TX) all voting against. This represents a rare occasion (still searching for the precedent!) where the minority has voted with the majority to help report a rule.
The rule sets forth a process to consider the above four bills on the House floor, subjecting final passage of each to a simple majority vote of the House. But for the Israel supplemental which will have no amendments allowed (i.e. a “closed rule”), the bills will be considered under structured rules that allow only those amendments printed in the report to be offered. The report, which details the amendments (few as they are), is attached.
Each bill will be debated for 30 minutes. Following general and amendment debate on all four bills, the House will vote on amendments (if requested), motions to recommit (if offered), and final passage. Should all four bills individually pass, the rule will combine them into one message for the Senate’s consideration (striking and amending an unrelated Senate bill). This will help expedite the Senate’s consideration process (more below).
Schedule
The House plans to consider the rule tomorrow when it convenes at 9:00am. Though numerous House Republicans will oppose the rule on the floor, enough Democrats are expected to support it, enabling it to pass on a bipartisan basis.
The House will not begin consideration of the four bills, themselves, until Saturday when it convenes at 9:00am. It is unlikely that Leadership will abide by the 72-hour rule. Thus, the House could send the Senate a final package (via message) sometime Saturday afternoon, rather than late Saturday evening.
As a message from the House, Leader Schumer can move to proceed to the House amendment as soon as the Senate completes consideration of FISA. Further, just one cloture vote on the motion to concur will be necessary prior to passage, shortening the time necessary for Senate consideration as compared to a newly originated House bill.
Timing of votes is still unclear, however, as the Senate is currently scheduled to be in recess next week. It remains to be determined by Leader Schumer whether he will force cloture and passage votes early next week after the Passover holiday, or wait until the Senate returns from recess a week later. We expect to know the answer to that question as the Senate endeavors to wrap up consideration of FISA, either Friday or this weekend.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. The security package (and TikTok divestment et al.) is all but greased. Though House Republican Leadership, and especially Speaker Johnson, will take arrows from conservatives and House Democratic Leadership will take arrows from progressives, the substance and process have been negotiated on a bipartisan and bicameral basis, with the White House fully informed and supportive.
This represents a major legislative breakthrough in what is otherwise an extremely challenging domestic political environment. Moreover, the substance of the package-once signed by the President-will greatly impact and shape the geopolitical and national security landscape, from the Middle East, to Russia, to the Indo-Pacific.
Of course, nothing is over until it’s over. We will continue to keep you updated.
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