The House and Senate will both return to Washington on November 9 for two weeks prior to recessing for the week of Thanksgiving. They will then return to DC for two or three weeks before breaking for the winter holidays, meaning that there will be a maximum of five legislative weeks during the “lame duck” session that will wrap up the 119th Congress. Member sentiment following the elections will determine whether those five weeks provide meaningful opportunities to enact legislation prior to the 120th Congress, which will convene in early January. The lame duck will also feature internal organization for House and Senate Republicans and Democrats, along with new member orientation for both bodies.
Energy Permitting Reform: On November 9, the Senate will hold an initial cloture vote on the motion to proceed to H.R. 2347, the legislative vehicle for permitting reform, which was released just before the Senate recessed in early October. The Lee-Capito-Heinrich-Whitehouse “four corners” deal, titled the Bipartisan American Jobs and Affordability Act (BAAJA), has strong support from the White House. While the sponsors of the legislation are opposed to making substantive changes that could undermine the fragile agreement, a number of technical changes are expected to be included when the bill hits the floor through a Substitute Amendment, which could reflect member requests, acute concerns from stakeholders, and any changes necessary to secure House passage.
Senate Leadership will seek to expedite passage of the permitting bill before leaving for Thanksgiving, though consideration could take up to two weeks. During this time, there will be attempts to vote on additional amendments to the bill, though even that will require unanimous consent, which can be difficult to achieve.
If the Senate has 60 votes for passage, the bill’s future will lie with the House. Supporters of the Senate agreement hope the House will accept the legislation as-is and are pinning those hopes on a strong Senate vote coupled with White House pressure. House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Brett Guthrie (R-KY), while bullish on enactment of legislation during lame duck, has not endorsed the Senate agreement and has indicated publicly that he would like to see changes and/or additions, including on transmission. In particular, Chairman Guthrie believes provisions from his POWER Act draft that were not included in the Senate package should be added, and he is also likely to push for Clean Air Act reforms (e.g., House-passed FENCES, RED Tape, and FIRE Acts, plus NSR reform). Unlike the Senate’s approach to data centers and electricity costs, the House-passed Ratepayer Protection Act directs states to set their own policies, which reflects Guthrie’s emphasis on local control. As noted above, the Senate may attempt to address House concerns prior to passage through an informal negotiation, which would ensure that the Senate only considers the bill once before it is signed into law.
Appropriations: The current continuing resolution expires on December 11. While Congressional leadership and Appropriators would like to reach an agreement to enact full-year spending bills, the likelihood of another CR that punts funding into 2027 is high. Given partisan tensions, and the potential lack of a functioning majority in the House after the election, we cannot rule out a government shutdown in December. That said, House and Senate appropriators have made positive comments about reaching agreement, and both sides could have incentives to take government funding off the table early in the new Congress. A CR or spending package would likely include extensions of expiring programs including NFIP, TSCA manufacturer fees, and TANF.
Budget Resolution/Reconciliation/Debt Limit: Congressional Republicans will need to determine whether to attempt to pass a budget resolution to lay the groundwork for a third reconciliation bill. The two driving imperatives are the need for supplemental appropriations for the Department of War and its ongoing military operations in the Middle East, and an increase in the nation’s borrowing authority (i.e., debt limit). The current debt limit will likely be breached in the first half of 2027 with Treasury Department “extraordinary measures” exhausted several months later. Should control of either chamber flip next year, we expect the President will be adamant that the limit be raised beforehand so that he does not have to negotiate the issue with a Democratic majority. Still, the challenges of the short calendar coupled with the need for policy unity among Republicans are real. House Republicans have previously passed a budget resolution that sits in the Senate, and the next move would be for the Senate to call it up, amend the reconciliation instructions, and send it back to the House – a very challenging task to say the least.
Nominations package/SCOTUS: Regardless of the election result, Senate leadership is working to compile an en bloc package of nominations for confirmation this year, to include nominees reported out of committees no later than November 20, including Adam Candeub/DOJ Antitrust, Nicole Saphier/Surgeon General, and nominees to the National Mediation Board. To be eligible for an en bloc package, nominees must have the consent of all 53 Republican Senators, and currently, Senator Kevin Cramer has a hold on all Trump nominees (except Chris Klomp) over a wetlands issue in North Dakota; the White House and GOP Leadership are working to resolve his issues over the recess. Other priority nominations for the White House include Sean Kaufman/HHS ASPR, Chris Klomp/HHS Deputy Secretary, and Comptroller General nominee. The Senate will also prioritize judges with lifetime appointments, who are not eligible to be included in an en bloc package, including pending circuit court nominees.
While not expected, another wild card in lame duck is the possibility of a retirement announcement from a Supreme Court Justice, especially Samuel Alito (76) or Clarence Thomas (78). Should a retirement be announced, we expect Leader Thune to work closely with the Senate Judiciary Committee and the White House to confirm a new nominee this year. While a post-election SCOTUS retirement announcement is rare, it is not unprecedented, and confirmation is potentially doable in with the truncated lame duck session. For perspective, Amy Coney Barrett was confirmed a mere 38 days after the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg prior to the 2020 election.
National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2027: The House and Senate Armed Services Committees are currently negotiating a final version of the FY 2027 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). The House passed its version of the NDAA (H.R. 8800) on July 22, 2026, by a vote of 216-212. The Senate Armed Services Committee reported its version of the NDAA (S. 4784) out of Committee on June 10, 2026, with a vote of 18-9. The full Senate did not take up the bill, but a Manager’s Amendment negotiated by Sens. Wicker and Reed is the “Senate position” in the current negotiations with the House. Both bills included $1.15 trillion in discretionary funding as requested by the Department of War.
The Staff Directors of the House and Senate Armed Services Committees began the “Little Four” meetings in early October and will attempt to resolve as many issues as possible before members return in November. The Chairs and Ranking Members of the Committees will begin “Big Four” meetings during the week of November 9 where they will address any remaining, high-profile issues. A few unresolved items may be kicked up to Leadership to complete the negotiation.
Committees outside of HASC and SASC that would like to attach unrelated provisions to the NDAA have been given a deadline of November 6 to complete their work. As usual, these proposals must have bipartisan, “four corners” agreement, some form of legislative history, and leadership support to be included. The current plan is to have the finalized NDAA ready for floor consideration during the week of December 7. Pressure to pass the NDAA is significant as Congress has enacted the NDAA for 65 consecutive years.
Key NDAA Issues to be Resolved
- Topline Spending Agreement: Bipartisan agreement on the topline discretionary number has not been reached. In addition, Democrats are adamant that they will not support the President’s request for $350 billion in mandatory defense spending.
- Operations against Iran: U.S. operations in Iran continue to be a key point of contention in Congress. Concerns about the authority for the operations persist, details about the cost have not been forthcoming, there are significant shortfalls for personnel accounts, and there is an urgent need to replace expended munitions and ordinance.
- Corporate governance: The Senate version of the NDAA contained a provision (Section 815) that would prohibit companies contracting with DoW from issuing dividends to shareholders or repurchasing company stock. This section is overly broad as drafted and will likely be dropped or severely limited in the final version of the NDAA.
- Right to Repair: The House and Senate bills contain a significant “right to repair” provision that would give the military greater ability to repair its own equipment rather than relying exclusively on the original equipment manufacturer (OEM). Right to repair is strongly opposed by the OEMs and is likely to be significantly altered in the final version of the bill.
- China Policy: There are various proposals aimed at limiting Chinese investment and AI gains that could be included in NDAA (e.g., connected vehicles, Section 1260H list, optical fiber, robotics, AI OVERWATCH Act, Chip Security Act, MATCH Act, Chip EQUIP Act, etc.). President Trump’s two-month “trade truce” extension with China will loom large over such discussions, as will his possible upcoming in-person meetings with President Xi Jinping later this fall (APEC, G20). The Administration has resisted previous congressional efforts to dictate foreign policy and is likely to do the same in December.
- FISA Reauthorization: Section 702 remains expired and a high priority of the Administration, congressional national security hawks, and the intelligence community.
- Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA): The House and Senate have each passed seven-year authorizations of TRIA, although the bills contain minor differences. We expect a 7-year TRIA bill to be adopted this year, likely attached to NDAA.
- Export-Import Bank: Without action from Congress, the Ex-Im Bank expires on December 31, prohibiting the Bank from approving new transactions. There are several proposals to reauthorize or modify the Ex-Im Bank, and an extension may be added to NDAA.
Farm Bill: Prior to recess, the Senate Agriculture Committee reported out its 2026 farm bill on a party-line vote of 12-11. Democrats have opposed the bill’s one-year delay of SNAP cost-sharing requirements imposed by the OBBBA, demanding at least a two-year delay. While the House’s farm bill passed in April, there is not currently a path in the Senate to pass its farm bill, but bicameral SNAP negotiations could yield a breakthrough, given the overwhelming bipartisan interest in passing a farm bill for the first time since 2018. We continue to closely monitor potential movement in the lame duck.
College Sports: The House is decidedly cool to the Senate’s recently passed bill regulating Name Image and Likeness (NIL) in college athletics, S.4668, the Protect College Sports Act, led by Senators Cruz and Cantwell. Both the power conferences (e.g., Big Ten, SEC) and President Trump are supportive of the Senate package, which could add pressure to the House, but House Republican Leadership has been largely dismissive and the bill faces opposition from the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC), labor unions including AFL-CIO, and civil liberties organizations including NAACP, in addition to opposition from various schools in the Athletic Conference.
Daylight Savings Time: The President is actively pressuring holdouts, most notably Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR), to send H.R. 139, the House-passed Sunshine Protection Act to his desk as a standalone or attached to a vehicle like NDAA. With clocks scheduled to roll back to standard time on Sunday, November 1, expect the issue to be fresh on the President’s mind when Congress returns after the election, though a swift path to enactment is less than assured.
Tax Policy: There remains bipartisan interest in addressing outstanding tax issues, including expired provisions (WOTC, ACA enhanced PTC, motorsports depreciation, semiconductor advanced manufacturing tax credit), digital assets/crypto, OBBB gambling loss deduction limitation, film/production tax incentive, tax administration legislation (TAS Act); and the U.S.-Taiwan Tax Treaty. If Republicans decide to pursue reconciliation 3.0, they could seek to address tax policy on a party-line basis, or they could attempt to negotiate a bipartisan bill in lieu of reconciliation – but if Democrats win control of either chamber, they may prefer to wait until 2027 to pursue their own tax priorities.
Capital Markets Access Legislation: Likewise, there remains bipartisan interest in assembling a package of capital access bills, following the House’s passage of H.R. 6955, the Main Street Capital Access Act in July. Many of the provisions in the House bill enjoy bipartisan, bicameral support, but we remain skeptical that an agreement can be reached this year.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS: The lame duck session presents a narrow but potentially consequential window for legislative action, with the outcome of the midterm elections likely to dictate both the pace and scope of activity. A change in control of either chamber could create urgency among Republicans and the White House to advance priorities before the 120th Congress convenes, while also complicating efforts to secure the bipartisan cooperation necessary to move legislation through the Senate with 60 votes. With a crowded agenda and limited floor time, leadership will be forced to prioritize must-pass items, including nominations, government funding and NDAA, while trying to land the plane on permitting reform and other bipartisan items (e.g. farm bill), or attempting to chart a path on budget reconciliation. The prospect of divided government in 2027 could also incentivize both parties to resolve certain issues now rather than face more difficult negotiations next year. Ultimately, the lame duck’s productivity will depend on the election results, the willingness of members to compromise, and the extent to which the White House is prepared to expend political capital to secure legislative victories before year-end.