This is the last week of session before Congress recesses for the holidays and until January 5. Before leaving town, the Senate will pass the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), confirm nearly 100 Trump nominees, and vote on a War Powers Resolution relating to Venezuela. Senate leaders will also attempt to make progress on an agreement that would pave the way for consideration in January of up to five of the nine remaining Fiscal Year 2026 appropriations measures. The House will consider nine rule bills this week, including several permitting and health care bills.
Senate Poised to Pass NDAA, Confirm Almost 100 Trump Nominees. This evening, by a vote of 76-20, the Senate invoked cloture on the motion to concur in the House amendment to S.1071, Fiscal Year 2026 NDAA. Final passage of the NDAA could take place as soon as tomorrow afternoon. On Wednesday and Thursday, the Senate will confirm:
- Jared Isaacman – Administrator of NASA
- Douglas Weaver – Member, Nuclear Regulatory Commission (through June 30, 2026)
- En bloc nominations package (S.Res.532) – 97 Trump nominations (list here)
Also this evening, Leader Thune also filed cloture on four other nominees that will be confirmed this week:
- Karen Bass – Assistant Secretary of Defense
- Sara Bailey – Director of National Drug Control Policy
- Alexander C. Van Hook – District Judge for the Western District of Louisiana
- Joshua Simmons – General Counsel of the CIA
The Senate will also consider a War Powers Resolution led by Senators Tim Kaine (D-VA) and Rand Paul (R-KY) to block the use of U.S. Armed Forces from engaging in hostilities within or against Venezuela without Congressional approval. The resolution is expected to fail.
Senate Unlikely to Reach Spending Agreement This Week. Senate Republican Leadership continues to work through holds on an appropriations package that would include up to five titles:
- Defense
- Commerce-Justice-Science
- Interior-Environment
- Labor-HHS
- Transportation-HUD
Packaging these bills together requires unanimous consent (UC) from all 100 Senators, but there continues to be objections. A new hotline that would allow a number of proposed amendment votes ran on the minibus package last week, in a renewed effort to gain UC. At this time, an agreement remains elusive and action paving the way for consideration in early January is unlikely to materialize this week, though efforts will surely continue when the Senate returns in the new year.
House to Vote on Permitting and Health Care Bills. The House is in session Monday through Friday this week and is schedule to consider nine rule bills:
- Lower Health Care Premiums for All Americans: House GOP healthcare package including PBM reforms, CSR, association health plans, stop-loss insurance, and CHOICE arrangements; does not include extension of ACA subsidies .
- H.R. 3632, the Power Plant Reliability Act: Allows FERC to require electricity-generating facilities to continue operating under certain conditions.
- H.R. 1366, the Mining Regulatory Clarity Act: Clarifies that a mining claim includes exploration and extraction activities for related activities on some public lands.
- H.R. 4776, the SPEED Act: Bipartisan permitting reform.
- H.R. 3616, the Reliable Power Act: Requires FERC to review regulations that may impact power generation.
- H.R. 845, the Pet and Livestock Protection Act: Restores local control of grey wolf.
- H.R. 498, the Do No Harm in Medicaid Act: Bans Medicaid funding for child sex changes.
- H.R. 4371, the Kayla Hamilton Act: Closes UAC loopholes.
- H.R. 3492, the Protect Children’s Innocence Act: Prohibits general affirming care for minors.
Upcoming 2026 Legislative Agenda
January 30 Spending Deadline Looms. Come January, Congress will have three weeks to reach an agreement on government funding and avoid a shutdown for the departments covered under the nine remaining FY26 appropriations bills. While Congressional Leaders will continue working to find consensus on a plan for government funding in January, several prominent House Republicans have floated passing a full-year continuing resolution (CR) to provide flat-funding for agencies through September 30, 2026. Even House Appropriations Committee Chairman Tom Cole (R-OK) has indicated that if agreement isn’t reached prior to January 30, a year-long CR may be inevitable. While a full-year CR is typically opposed by Defense hawks concerned with its impact on the Defense Department, many Members are disillusioned with short-term CRs and don’t believe bipartisan negotiations will bear fruit any time soon.
Continued Efforts to Extend ACA Subsidies. By the end of the week, both the Senate and House will have voted on various proposals to address health care costs, including the ACA Premium Tax Credits which expire on December 31. These proposals have included:
- Senators Mike Crapo (R-ID) and Bill Cassidy (R-LA) Plan (failed 51-48)
- Senate Democratic Three-Year Extension (failed 51-48)
- House GOP Lower Health Care Premiums for All Americans
No bipartisan path exists yet and President Trump has largely stayed out of the fray, thus far declining to support any plan that includes ACA subsidies. Meanwhile, several discharge petitions are circulating in the House, seeking to force a vote to extend ACA subsidies. The pressure to act in some manner will only grow as Congress returns in January, making a health care package of some sort still possible in 2026.
Reconciliation 2.0? We expect renewed focus on a second budget reconciliation bill, which would allow Republicans to again pass major legislation on a party-line vote. Republicans successfully used the process earlier this year to enact the One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act, delivering on many of President Trump’s tax, spending, immigration, Defense, and energy priorities. As 2026 begins and concerns over affordability increase, Republicans will need to quickly coalesce around the goals of a second reconciliation bill if they stand any chance of success. Both OMB Director Russ Vought and Department of War Secretary Pete Hegseth recently hinted at utilizing reconciliation to increase defense spending, while many Members think a second bill should be focused on affordability (e.g., health care, housing). Complicating matters further is President Trump’s stated view that Congress does not need to pass another bill since the OBBB delivers on all his promises.
Nonetheless, we expect chatter around reconciliation 2.0 to increase in January, with possible Member working groups formed in both chambers to identify early priorities. As a reminder, to utilize the expedited procedures of reconciliation, the House and Senate must first pass an identical budget resolution, setting overall deficit targets for the effort. Although the politics of this effort might ultimately be unsurmountable for GOP Leadership, we anticipate a sincere effort to pass reconciliation 2.0 in 2026, putting tax and other matters on the table for discussion.
Permitting Discussions Continue. House passage of permitting bills, notably the bipartisan SPEED Act (should it pass this week), will keep discussions over permitting reform live in Q1. We are monitoring discussions between Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee (ENR) Chairman Mike Lee (R-UT) and Ranking Member Martin Heinrich (D-NM), as well as Environment & Public Works (EPW) Chairman Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) and Ranking Member Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI). Both committees will need to hold markups for permitting reform to succeed and significant hurdles remain, including opposition from many Democrats. That said, we do believe there is a realistic path for permitting reform to pass in 2026, with the surface transportation reauthorization (expiring September 30) being the logical vehicle for action.
Bicameral Negotiations on Housing Policy. The likelihood of impactful housing policy being enacted early next year has substantially increased with the Senate’s ROAD to Housing Act being stripped from the final version of NDAA. In addition to a forthcoming housing executive order (EO) from the White House, we expect a fulsome negotiation on housing policies between the White House, House Financial Services and Senate Banking Committees beginning in January.
Senate Market Structure Markups. We are watching for Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott (R-SC) to schedule a markup on a market structure bill in early January, as well as possible action in the Senate Agriculture Committee, which released a bipartisan market structure discussion draft last month. Committee action in early January would bode well for a market structure bill, which is a top priority of President Trump and Leader John Thune (R-SD).
Highway Reauthorization. The highway bill authorization expires September 30, 2026, and must be extended by Congress. There will be efforts in both the House and Senate authorizing committees (House Transportation & Infrastructure, Senate EPW) to mark up legislation in the coming months. A number of important issues still need to be worked out, including spending levels and sources for additional revenue necessary to fund highway programs given the shortfall collected by the federal excise tax on gasoline. If Members fail to find agreement on multi-year highway bill, a short-term extension is the fallback option.
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