The Senate will be in session and voting this evening and through at least Thursday this week, while the House is out of session Monday and Tuesday due to the GOP Elected Leadership Committee (ELC) retreat, with its first votes scheduled for Wednesday evening. From a legislative standpoint this is an important week for both Iran as well as housing policy, with discussions pertaining to the mini shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security as well as votes on the SAVE Act continuing. Below is what to expect.
Housing. The Senate returns to session this afternoon with a 5:30pm vote on whether to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed (MTP) to the House-passed Housing for the 21st Century Act (H.R. 6644). This will serve as the legislative vehicle for the Senate to substitute its emerging bipartisan housing policy deal, based upon the ROAD to Housing legislation it originally included in last year’s National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and combining it with some of the House’s provisions and likely language to ban some institutional investor transactions in the single-family housing market.
The goal of the Senate exercise, which will likely run into next week, is to pass a bipartisan bill that the House can accept and which the President will sign. Further to this, and contrary to some reporting suggesting otherwise, we do not expect that any tax provisions will be voted on, since the House’s shell bill is not a revenue measure and hence turning it into one would violate the Constitution’s Origination Clause, thereby guaranteeing a “blue slip” from the House and extending the process.
Expect the Senate to vote to invoke cloture on the MTP this evening with a solid bipartisan vote (60 votes required), though it will require unanimous consent (UC) to expedite the up-to 30 hours of debate post-cloture prior to actually adopting the motion to proceed (simple majority vote, if a vote is required). It will likely take until Tuesday (or, less likely, even Wednesday) before the Senate begins formal consideration of the legislation.
Once on the bill proper, we expect a substitute amendment to be offered to the House-passed bill. This substitute will include: (1) the Senate’s previously-passed ROAD to Housing legislation; (2) various items taken from the House-passed H.R. 6644 as stated above; and (3) restrictions on institutional investors purchasing certain single-family housing (SFH) units. Discussions on items (2) and (3) continued through the weekend and are close to being finalized, with agreement from Senate Republicans, Senate Democrats, as well as the Administration. House Republicans have been included in the discussions, as well, though have been largely cool to the institutional investor language. It is possible that text of the substitute amendment will be made public later today.
As always, there will be Member interest in offering and voting on amendments to the substitute and we anticipate many amendments will be filed, especially those in the Banking Committee’s jurisdiction, including interest rate caps, credit card competition, and related issues. However, lining up consent of all 100 Senators necessary to allow consideration of and votes on amendments is another matter. Hotlines to both Republicans and Democratic Senators will be run over the course of this week in an attempt to ascertain if an agreement allowing a handful amendments can be reached while expediting passage of the bill. If not, we expect Leader Thune will at some point – whether late this week or early next week – file cloture on the Senate’s substitute amendment as well as on the underlying bill in order to bring the process to a close next week. Amendments that are considered controversial, and hence potentially disruptive to facilitating quick passage through the House and enactment into law, are unlikely to be added to the bill.
Iran War Powers Resolution. With the U.S. and Israel launching strikes over the weekend meant to decapitate the Iranian regime, potentially one of the most significant military actions of the last 50 years, expect both the House and Senate to vote this week on War Powers Resolution legislation sponsored by opponents of this action. The Senate is likely to take up Senator Kaine’s Resolution on Wednesday, with the House voting on a similar resolution Thursday.
If enacted, a War Powers Resolution on Iran would curb President Trump’s authority to continue military action absent explicit Congressional authority. But such a Resolution will not be enacted, as that would require either a Presidential signature or a supermajority vote to override a veto, which is not reality. Indeed, it is dubious that Sen. Kaine’s resolution will even pass the Senate at the requisite simple majority vote threshold.
In advance of the Kaine vote, Senators will be briefed Tuesday afternoon by Secretary of State Rubio, Secretary of War Hegseth, Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Caine and CIA Director Ratcliffe. War Powers aside, Congress’s leverage remains its power of the purse, though with mandatory money approved under last year’s reconciliation bill (OBBBA) and the lack of clarity regarding the duration of the operation, we do not know yet what the longer-term funding needs will be, if any.
DHS Appropriations Lapse. The White House and Senate Democrats continue to trade paper on an infrequent basis and with little progress made towards bringing the DHS shutdown to a close. While the rest of the government is funded through September, the vast majority of DHS personnel – FEMA, Coast Guard, TSA, CPB and ICE – are considered essential and thus are required to continue working during this mini shutdown. However, only CBP and ICE, which have plenty of mandatory funding courtesy of OBBBA, can actually pay personnel for working until the shutdown is resolved. That means TSA, Coast Guard and FEMA personnel are about to receive their first partial paycheck covering work up until the February shutdown commenced. In two weeks, these personnel will receive no paycheck at all absent a deal to reopen before then.
The Administration will continue to make the case that while it is open to reforming certain ICE procedures, it will not agree to new judicial warrant requirements, nor will it agree to unmask officers, at least not without other changes that mitigate the heightened threat environment in which ICE often operates (e.g., officers and their families being doxed). They will also make the case that with active military operations ongoing now is the wrong time – not that there is ever a right time – to have a funding lapse at DHS. There are no Senate votes currently scheduled, but Leader Thune can return to a CR at any time, requiring 60 votes to pass. In addition, the House is expected to vote on a clean DHS extension on Thursday.
In short, we see no breakthrough as being imminent. As always, a forcing action will be necessary to break the impasse and the upcoming spring break travel season seems to be the next inflection point.
SAVE Act. The Senate GOP continues to have internal discussions about how best to bring up and vote on the House-passed SAVE Act, which requires voters to have federal identification to vote. While nearly all GOP Senators support the underlying goal of the legislation, there are continuing disagreements as to the best manner to conduct the debate, with a vocal number led by Sen. Mike Lee (and outside MAGA voices) pushing to force Democrats to engage in a “talking filibuster” as a means to skirt a 60 vote requirement, or at least to demonstrate sufficient “fight.”
With all 47 Senate Democrats opposed, it is not at all clear that there are 50+ votes in the Senate necessary to even begin and conduct debate in that manner, and Leader Thune has pointed out that there are floor ramifications that must be considered before the Senate moves in that direction, including unlimited amendments from the Democrats, some of which would divide Republicans. For now, these discussions continue.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. Despite constant political tensions, Congressional Republicans and Democrats continue to find opportunities to make law, even if those opportunities seem few and far between. Following the shutdown last fall, which lasted a record 43 days, Congress surprised to the upside by finalizing all 12 FY26 appropriations bills – though only 11 of them have been signed into law, and the DHS shutdown looms.
Congress is poised yet again to pass bipartisan legislation, this time relating to housing supply, and it is likely to be enacted into law sometime in the next few weeks. The question is what additional items can make it through an otherwise partisan gauntlet, with digital asset market structure, energy permitting reform, kids’ online safety, FISA reauthorization, a supplemental and several additional items in the mix as potentials in the coming months. At the same time, intraparty tensions among the GOP on the Senate filibuster and potentially among Democrats on Iran continue to flare, just as the political season is about to launch with party primaries beginning this week.
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