The House is in recess until August 31, with GOP leadership having departed D.C. on a high note after narrowly passing several consequential bills this week, including:
- Fiscal Year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act (FY27 NDAA)
- Continuing resolution (CR) funding the government from October 1 (when current spending expires) through December 4
- The FY27 budget resolution, the principal purpose of which is to effectuate a third reconciliation spending bill of $95 billion to fund the war in Iran, provide aid to farmers, and implement pieces of the SAVE America Act; and
- Legislation to restrict the ability of Members of Congress and their families to buy and sell stocks.
The House will return on August 31 before recessing again for the week of September 7 (Labor Day). Both the House and Senate are scheduled to be in session for the last three weeks of September, returning on September 14 before adjourning in early October until after the November 3 elections.
With the House having left town, attention now shifts to the Senate, where leaders have multiple issues to address over the next two weeks before their own August recess begins. Senate leaders hope to confirm several high-profile nominations and set up action on a number of items for enactment in September. But the calendar is tight and next week will be choppier than most, with services for late Senator Lindsey O. Graham in D.C. on Tuesday, and in South Carolina on Wednesday.
Nominations. On Monday at 5:30 pm the Senate will vote on whether to invoke cloture on the nomination of Jay Clayton to serve as Director of National Intelligence (DNI). Clayton is expected to be confirmed on Tuesday or Wednesday, though the vote will largely fall on party lines, as it did this week in the Senate Intelligence Committee where he was reported favorably by a vote of 9–8.
During this work period the Senate will process a wide-ranging package of roughly 75 non-Cabinet-level nominations reported by various committees over the last couple of months. While the Senate GOP can confirm these nominees en bloc, the process involved is time-consuming, requiring multiple cloture votes (though on a simple majority basis). The Senate will dual-track legislative business while processing those nominations.
Senate GOP leaders also intend to take up the Cabinet-level nominations of Todd Blanche (Attorney General) and possibly that of Keith Sonderling (Secretary of Labor). These nominations are not eligible to be included in the en bloc package and will likely require up to 30 hours post-cloture debate. Should Blanche be approved by the Judiciary Committee next Thursday, it is likely he will get a floor vote the last week before recess. Sonderling is also expected to be reported favorably by the HELP Committee on Thursday, but may have to wait until September for a floor vote as there may not be time to do both.
Russia & Iran Sanctions. The day before his sudden passing, Sen. Graham announced a bipartisan Russia sanctions deal with several senior Senate Democrats as well as with the White House. The legislation, long in the works, includes mandatory direct sanctions and a 500 percent tariff on Russian exports, as well as potential 100 percent secondary tariffs on several countries that purchase Russian oil and natural gas, with the secondary tariffs left to the discretion of the President. The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026 now has more than 60 Senate cosponsors. At the request of the White House, additional Iran sanctions have been added to the bill as well.
After the Clayton nomination is confirmed, it is expected that the Senate will vote on whether to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed to the sanctions legislation; given that there are more than 60 Senate cosponsors, it is highly likely that cloture will be invoked. There are ongoing discussions about which amendments might receive votes to help expedite passage of the bill. Note that Ukrainian President Zelensky will be in D.C. early next week, both to attend Senator Graham’s funeral and to meet with President Trump and, separately, with a bipartisan group of Senators, further amping up the pressure for the Senate to pass the sanctions bill next week.
Continuing Resolution. As with their House counterparts, Senate GOP leadership is intent on passing a CR to avert a government shutdown by September 30, and they would like to move legislation now rather than later in September in order to take the threat of a shutdown off the table. Unlike the House, they cannot muscle a bill through on a party-line basis; like most legislation it will require 60 votes. Discussions are ongoing between senior appropriators on a bipartisan basis and include bill specifics and duration, as well as what funding “anomalies” and expiring authorizations to include.
Leader Thune will prioritize bringing an agreement to the floor for a vote before the Senate leaves town, with the hope that Senate Democrats will not vote against a consensus CR, even if it comes two months ahead of current law expiration—but despite progress in bipartisan discussions, how Senate Democrats ultimately will handle this situation remains unclear. If the Senate is able to pass a CR, it is likely to include many of the Administration’s requested anomalies, requiring the House to repass the amended bill when it returns in early September.
Digital Asset Market Structure. The Senate GOP released an updated market structure bill this week that includes ethics restrictions on federal government officials, including the President, restricting them from profiting from digital asset transactions. Senate Democrats, and a few Republicans, have panned the ethics language as insufficient and continue to raise additional substantive issues they would like to address. It is unclear whether an agreement will be reached in a timely fashion, but it is highly likely that a vote will occur. If there is an agreement, Senate leaders will figure out a way to process the legislation as quickly as they can. If not, a cloture vote will fail, and they will move on to other business.
FY27 Budget Resolution. Under pressure from President Trump over the SAVE Act and the ongoing Iran war, it remains possible that the Senate will attempt to process an FY 27 budget resolution before leaving for recess, although the packed calendar and lack of Senate GOP consensus could delay any action. Passing a party-line budget is a difficult task given the Senate GOP’s narrow majority, competing viewpoints on the underlying policies, and a general disinclination to vote on politically charged issues of the Democrats’ choosing during yet another “vote-a-rama.” With that said, Senate Republicans have shown strong unity on budget resolutions this Congress, and now that the House has passed its version, discussions among Senate Republicans are underway. The House’s successful vote makes Senate action possible this work period, though significant hurdles remain. If that happens, there could be a reconciliation effort in September or after the elections.
Additional items. With Senate Democrats blocking consideration of the FY27 NDAA over spending and Iran disagreements, NDAA will be pre-conferenced between the House and Senate with a goal of enactment in December. While there remains a lot of interest in moving additional bills through the Senate, such as the now-lapsed Sec. 702 FISA authority; the Protect College Sports Act; and the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA), those items are not likely to be acted on prior to August recess. Nor are energy permitting reform; kids online safety/AI; surface transportation, or the farm bill authorization, each of which continues to be discussed in its respective committee(s) of jurisdiction.
Outlook/Analysis. The next two weeks of Senate session will shape what Congress is able to achieve in September, with votes looming on issues including Russia sanctions, market structure, and government funding—and maybe reconciliation 3.0. If the Senate can process a bipartisan CR, it will all but eliminate the prospect of an October shutdown—a scenario GOP leaders fear could occur depending on pre-election partisan dynamics in September. If Senate Democrats vote against a CR before recess, the Senate will return in September with a short runway and a lot of questions to answer, first and foremost, whether Senate Democrats will force a government shutdown prior to the November elections.
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