As it currently stands, House Republican Leadership is well short of the votes needed to pass a rule for Speaker Johnson’s multi-vote supplemental plan-with even moderate members such as Nicole Malliotakis (R-NY) expressing hesitation. This deficit would necessitate that House Democrats make up the difference.
As of now, it appears that Democrats are open to lending such a hand-on both the rule vote and the potential tablingof a motion to vacate that would likely follow-if the Speaker sticks to his stated plan. Bipartisan conversations are underway on how to draft the text of the various pieces of the supplemental so that it would be able to pass both chambers and be signed into law. Of note, discussions are underway on modifications to the TikTok divestment bill that could help grease the skids for passage in the Senate-such as extending the period allowed for divestment.
Meanwhile, Thomas Massie (R-KY) today became the second Republican to publicly support the motion to vacate resolution sponsored by Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), further complicating matters for the Speaker over the coming weeks and months. This has led to a renewed push by Republican Leadership to explore alternatives that would be more palatable to conservatives, such as not combining the four bills after passage for transmittal to the Senate, including offsets in the legislation, and/or attaching border security measures to Ukraine aid. While such moves could help placate members on the far right, some-such as border security-could represent a poison pill to House Democrats, thereby repelling the very votes that Speaker Johnson may need to pass a rule and table a potential motion to vacate down the road.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. Various ideas continue to be mulled for how to navigate the coming 48-72 hours-which range from considering the supplemental under a more open amendment process, to trying to force the Senate to take a vote on the House-passed H.R. 2 border security bill or hold a full impeachment trial for DHS Secretary Mayorkas, to considering aid for Israel-only. Meanwhile, some inside leadership are quietly advocating for a slowdown to better allow Republican members to work through the stages of grief, with others suggesting that the Speaker abandoning this plan entirely is not yet off the table.
At the same time, final text has not yet been released, which means Friday evening is now the earliest that any bill could be considered if the Speaker adheres to the 72-hour rule required to bring a bill up through rules. Needless to say, this situation remains incredibly fluid.
If Speaker Johnson follows through and passes a bill that includes aid for Ukraine-for which 218 votes do exist in the House between Republicans and Democrats-we believe he would find sufficient support from House Democrats to table an all-but-inevitable motion to vacate that would follow. But time is of the essence and each passing hour and day only invites new obstacles to overcome. If any supplemental bill is going to pass the House, this week is likely one of the Speaker’s last best chances to do so.
We will continue to keep you posted.
###