Welcome back.
This evening, Speaker Johnson hosted a special House GOP Conference meeting where he informed Members that he intends to hold a vote on four separate items this week:
- Aid to Israel
- Aid to Ukraine
- Aid to Taiwan/Indo-Pacific
- A “Sidecar” consisting of the REPO for Ukrainians Act, structuring of the Ukraine aid as a loan, the House-passed TikTok divestment bill, and other related provisions
We believe text of the first three items will largely, if not completely, mirror the Senate-passed supplemental-but will be voted on individually, with the potential for an amendment process on each.
Afterwards, any and all items that successfully pass would be combined or “MIRV’ed” together and transmitted to the Senate as one package.
This process will require a rule, which needs to pass both in the House Rules Committee and on the House Floor. House Democrats will almost assuredly be needed to vote for the rule on the floor, and potentially in committee, as well, where Speaker Johnson can only afford to lose 2 of the 9 Republican votes. This is expected to be a major point of discussion at tomorrow’s House Democratic Caucus Meeting. Meanwhile, we will be watching for smoke signals from Thomas Massie (R-KY), as well as the newest member of the Rules Committee, Austin Scott (R-GA).
However, if the measure manages to overcome both these obstacles, all four items would require only a simple majority to pass the House as opposed to the higher two-thirds threshold required to pass a suspension.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. After a sustained pressure campaign that only intensified with this weekend’s attacks from Iran on Israel, Speaker Johnson is finally making his move on the national security supplemental. He also likely felt bolstered by the warm reception he received at Mar-A-Lago from former President Trump last Friday, who said the Speaker was “doing a very good job.”
Assuming he moves forward with this plan, the odds meaningfully increase that Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) will trigger a vote on her Motion to Vacate resolution. Only 3 total Republicans would be needed to oust the Speaker if all Democrats voted yes-but a number of House Democrats have signaled they would likely support a vote to table such a motion if Speaker Johnson moved forward with aid for Ukraine.
While there have some been discussions with the White House and Senate Leadership over the past week, at this point neither Leaders Schumer nor McConnell-both of whom strongly support aid to Ukraine-have reacted to this emerging proposal.
As always, the above remains fluid and subject to change, as almost nothing goes according to plan in the House these days. But the rubber is meeting the road at long last, and the stakes for all sides could not be higher. We will keep you posted as events unfold.
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