The House and Senate return to session following the two-week July Fourth recess. The forthcoming July work period will move quickly, with the House and Senate each scheduled to be in session for just three weeks before breaking until after Labor Day. The Senate will return September 5 and the House will return September 12. In the meantime, both the Senate and House floors are likely to see significant legislative activity during July. Below is what to expect.
HOUSE
There remains quite a bit of substantive work to complete with little time in session before the end of the fiscal year. As such, the House will be fully immersed in substantial legislation throughout July and September. Below is an outline of the House’s immediate upcoming work period, as well as a look-ahead to September.
First up is the Fiscal Year 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) during the week of July 10, which was marked up and reported by the House Armed Services Committee just before the recess. The Rules Committee amendment filing deadline was Friday, June 30, and over 1400 amendments have been filed. While many of these are late or non-germane, we do expect a healthy number of germane amendments to be made in order and considered, as per the traditional floor process for NDAA. At the moment, the bill remains bipartisan but topline defense spending remains an issue as does the potential for conservative amendments passing on the floor, thereby causing Democrats to vote against final passage.
Also on tap for the work period (likely the week of July 17) is the bipartisan Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Reauthorization bill that was marked up in the Transportation & Infrastructure Committee in mid-June. Like NDAA, we expect a healthy number of amendments to be made in order. The filing deadline for amendments is Wednesday, July 12 at 11am.
The House will also begin consideration of FY24 Appropriations bills on the floor this work period. The most likely bills to be considered are Defense, Military Construction/VA, Agriculture, and Energy & Water. As has been widely reported, the House has marked its bills to FY22 spending levels, far below the agreed upon discretionary caps in the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA). As a result, we expect the House process to remain decidedly partisan.
Ultimately, it is unclear how many bills House Republicans can pass on their own, as well as how the House and Senate reconcile the delta in their spending numbers. While a clean continuing resolution (CR) at the current FY23 spending levels is likely to be enacted by September 30, a more fulsome agreement for FY24 will remain elusive for the foreseeable future, putting into play the automatic one percent sequestration of the FRA. Note that the Act’s sequester is trigged if any FY24 bills have not passed by January 1, though the effective date of the sequester is not until the end of April (buying Congress more time to negotiate in the interim).
Meanwhile, the House will be busy in committee. A few noteworthy activities include:
- Financial Services Committee. Having released its preliminary report on ESG investing concerns, the committee is planning a robust schedule for July, including a full committee hearing on July 12 and four subcommittee hearings throughout the month, concluding with a legislative markup on July 26.
- Energy and Commerce Committee. Subcommittees are scheduled to hold markups the week of July 10 to provide for full committee legislative markups on July 19 and 27. The Oversight & Investigations Subcommittee will also hold a hearing on July 26 with HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra.
- Select Committee on the CCP. The select committee has a packed schedule for July, including public hearings on “Risks for American Businesses Operating in China” (July 13) and “Emerging Technologies and CCP Military-Civil Fusion Strategy” (July 26). The select committee will also continue its practice of holding closed-door Member briefings, including sessions with Rahm Emanuel, Ambassador to Japan; General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs; and roundtables with economic experts and on the CCP’s influence operations.
Looking ahead to September, the House is likely to mark up and potentially consider a Farm Bill. Also possible is consideration of the Ways and Means Committee’s economic growth tax package that was marked up in mid-June. And, as mentioned, a CR will be needed by September 30 to allow for continued government operations.
SENATE
The Senate is likely to be in session for just 10 legislative days in July with no-vote Mondays scheduled for both July 17 and 24. The work period begins on Monday, July 10, with a vote on the motion to invoke cloture on the nomination of Xochitl Torres Small to be Deputy Secretary of Agriculture. Upon disposition of that nomination, the Senate will consider the following nominations in sequence, most of which will likely occur on Tuesday:
- Rosemarie Hidalgo to be Director of the Violence Against Women Office, Department of Justice;
- Kymberly Kathryn Evanson to be U.S. District Judge for the Western District of Washington; and
- Tiffany M. Cartwright to be U.S. District Judge for the Western District of Washington.
While there is no shortage of legislative possibilities for floor consideration, Leader Schumer will need to decide how to allocate Senate floor time among competing priorities for floor action. Possibilities include:
- Prescription Drug Pricing. Were Leader Schumer to move to this, he would likely file cloture on the motion to proceed to a package of HELP Committee-reported bills and, if 60 votes exists, use that as a shell to which he would add a price cap-of some sort-on the cost of insulin in the private market, along with other potential items. Note that the Senate in 2022 voted on an insulin price cap and that amendment failed with 57 votes in favor.
- RECOUP Act. Bank executive compensation restrictions, reported by the Senate Banking Committee in late June on a bipartisan vote, but probably not yet ready for floor action.
- Railway Safety Act. Reported by the Senate Commerce Committee in May.
- FY2024 NDAA. Reported by the Senate Armed Services Committee in late June, Leader Schumer has indicated that he could devote the last two weeks of July to the bill. Should he do so, there is potential for votes on a number of amendments relevant to the underlying legislation. In addition, the bill managers will likely construct a managers’ package of amendments to be considered as part of the floor process.
While there has been some level of bipartisan support for each of the above four measures, there is nowhere near enough time to process each of those items in July given the anticipated requirement by the GOP for amendment votes on each, meaning that Leader Schumer will need to decide which bill or bills to prioritize. How Leader Schumer juggles these competing priorities remains the biggest unknown heading into the work period, but for the moment it seems he will hold off on NDAA as an initial matter, and rather look to bring it to the floor later in the work period.
Though very much in flux, it is currently anticipated that Schumer may file cloture on the motion to proceed to one of the other three bills (prescription drugs; bank executive comp; railway safety) on Monday, July 10, for an initial test cloture vote on the motion to proceed on Wednesday, July 12. Some have speculated that the most likely cloture vote would be prescription drugs, which could fail given that most Republicans are uncomfortable with the substance and process surrounding a notional health care package, the contours of which remain ill-defined.
Should there be 60 votes for cloture, the Senate would adopt that motion on Thursday before leaving town, making it likely that consideration of the legislation would span through the week of July 17, thereby imperiling passage of NDAA prior to August recess. Alternatively, if there is a failed cloture vote on Wednesday, Leader Schumer could pivot to NDAA (or another bill) with enough time to have a robust debate and passage prior to August. If legislating breaks down altogether, there’s always the possibility of additional nominations votes, though controversial nominees continue to face a difficult path forward in a 51-49 Senate.
Senate Appropriations. The Senate Appropriations Committee will continue with markups of FY24 appropriations measures based upon the topline numbers agreed upon by Speaker McCarthy and President Biden in the Fiscal Responsibility Act. This sets up a conflict with House Republicans that will either be joined by September 30 when current funding expires, or later in the year if a CR is enacted in September.
Having reported both the Agriculture and Military Construction/Veteran Affairs FY24 spending bills favorably in June, Senate Appropriators are planning three additional markups over the course of July, with a goal of reporting each of the 12 measures from Committee prior to August, as follows:
- July 13: Markup of bills for the Departments of Commerce, Justice & Science (CJS); Legislative Branch; and Financial Services/General Government (FSGG).
- July 20: Markup of bills for Energy & Water; Transportation/HUD (THUD); State/Foreign Operations.
- July 27: Markup of bills for the Department of the Interior; Homeland Security; Labor/HHS; and Defense.
Looking ahead, it remains possible that the Senate could consider one or more appropriations bills (or minibus) on the Senate floor this fall.
Senate Commerce. While originally slated for markup in June, consideration of the Commerce Committee’s five-year FAA Reauthorization measure was delayed due to a disagreement over pilot training requirements. It remains possible that the Committee could return to consideration of the measure in July but likely not until and unless that issue is resolved.
Senate Banking. With the Committee marking up the RECOUP Act as well as fentanyl-related legislation in June – its first legislative markup in several years – Chairman Brown has stated he would like to use July to move forward in Committee with a markup of on the SAFE Banking Act – though that timing may prove to be overly optimistic.
Senate Agriculture. While members of both parties are interested in advancing the next farm bill authorization, it is unlikely that the Committee will be ready to consider bipartisan legislation this month owing to its size and cost, which has grown to $1.5 trillion (including food assistance as well as commodity price support programs).
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. Floor activity will keep both the House and Senate occupied until the August recess. When they return in September the differences over appropriations spending levels will take center stage as the September 30 deadline for funding the government looms. As an initial matter the House GOP will have to decide whether to pursue a short-term CR at FY23 levels, or if they want to try to use the CR to reduce spending or make other policy changes – a move that will provoke opposition from President Biden and Congressional Democrats. If a short-term CR were to be enacted at FY23 levels, that fight will be delayed until later in the year, with the looming possibility of a one percent sequestration order to be issued in January per the FRA. The Senate may also spend part of the fall processing one or more appropriations bills as well as any of the aforementioned items not brought to the floor in July.
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