After the Independence Day holiday, the House and Senate return for a short one-week session prior to breaking ahead of the Republican National Convention which takes place this year in Milwaukee, Wisconsin during the week of July 15. Following that, the House and Senate are both scheduled to be in session the weeks of July 22 and 29 – including for a high-profile Joint Session of Congress on July 24 with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – before breaking for the August recess, though it is possible the House could give time back and recess for August a week early.
Below is what to expect over the July work period with a forecast of what is anticipated to be a short, three-week September session before Congress recesses prior to the November elections.
SENATE
Nominations. The Senate returns on Monday, July 8, to the familiar: votes on nominations, especially judges. Between 2017 and 2021, Republicans confirmed 234 of President Trump’s federal judicial nominations with lifetime appointments. Under President Biden, more than 200 such appointments have been confirmed by the Democratic-controlled Senate, and it remains Leader Schumer’s intention to surpass 234 by the end of the year.
On Monday afternoon, the Senate will resume consideration of the nomination of Nancy L. Maldonado, to be United States Circuit Judge for the Seventh Circuit, post cloture; at 5:30 pm the Senate will vote on the nomination. Prior to recess, Leader Schumer also filed cloture on three additional nominations, and votes on those will begin on Tuesday. They are:
- Patricia Lee, to be a Member of the Defense Nuclear Facilities Board;
- Robin Merriweather, to be a Judge of the United States Court of Federal Claims; and
- Charles Willoughby, Jr., to be an Associate Judge of the Superior Court of the District of Columbia.
Hot Button Political Votes. In advance of November, Leader Schumer has begun forcing votes on legislation pertaining to hot-button political issues, not with the expectation that any of the bills will garner 60 votes and pass the Senate, but rather to highlight issues of import to Senate Democrats running in competitive reelections. Over the last month, the Senate voted on whether to proceed to legislation relating to border security (43 yes votes); access to contraception (51 votes); and access to IVF (48 votes). Expect this pattern to continue this week, when Leader Schumer files cloture on the motion to proceed to another abortion-related measure.
Looking ahead to the end of July, it is likely that this pattern of votes – mostly nominations with political messaging votes sprinkled in – will continue. While Leader Schumer has a long list of votes he can force, none are likely to pass the Senate prior to the election, at least absent a robust floor process with amendments, which seems unlikely for any of the below. Potential votes include:
- Further legislation relating to abortion, contraception and IVF
- Cannabis banking (SAFER Banking Act)
- Executive compensation (RECOUP Act)
- Railway Safety Act
- Kids Online Safety Act
- Smith/Wyden tax bill
Privileged Resolutions. Over the course of the Biden Administration, Congressional Republicans have utilized the Congressional Review Act (CRA) to force votes to overturn a litany of Biden Administration regulations. While they are not subject to filibuster and can pass the Senate and House with simple majority votes, as many have this year, in a divided government these votes largely serve as policy messaging as they are vetoable by the President. With Congress likely already within the CRA lookback window (60 legislative days) for any forthcoming regulations, we expect fewer CRA votes moving forward (though there could still be a few). Rather, Republicans will likely pause to see if they are able to consolidate control of government and use the CRA to overturn late term Biden regulations early next year, as they did in 2017 when the GOP Congress successfully utilized the CRA to overturn 16 late-term regulations of the Obama Administration.
War Powers. The Senate could vote as soon as next week on a privileged War Powers Resolution introduced by Sen. Cruz prohibiting further construction, maintenance, and operation of the Gaza pier. Like the CRA, votes under the War Powers Resolution are privileged, not subject to filibuster, and pass on a simple majority vote; however, they are also subject to veto by the President, which takes a 2/3’s vote of both the House and Senate to override.
NDAA. One legislative item that could pass the Senate is the annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) which was reported favorably in June from the Senate Armed Services Committee by a vote of 22-3. The NDAA provides critical resources and authorities necessary for national defense and has been enacted annually for more than 60 consecutive years. Senate Republicans would like Leader Schumer to put the bill on the Senate floor the last two weeks of July for debate and votes, as he did last year, and they are going through their normal preparation, including preparing amendments. Despite that, given competing priorities for limited floor time, we believe it is unlikely that Schumer will prioritize NDAA for floor time ahead of the election.
Appropriations. On Thursday, July 11, the Senate Appropriations Commitee will hold a markup to approve 302(b) subcommittee spending allocations, in addition to the Legislative Branch, Agriculture-FDA, and Military Construction-Veterans Affairs Appropriations bills. While Republicans will probably vote against the spending allocations, the three bills should each be reported favorably. It remains to be seen whether any of the remaining nine bills will pass the committee in July, but no appropriations bills are expected to see the Senate floor prior to the election.
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Appropriations. The House has now passed four appropriations bills for FY25 across the floor, including (1) Military Construction/VA, (2) Defense, (3) Homeland, and (4) State and Foreign Operations. When the House returns next week, it will consider the FY25 Legislative Branch Appropriations bill before breaking for the Republican National Convention. Afterwards, the tentative plan to consider the remaining bills is as follows:
- Week of July 22: Commerce, Justice, Science (CJS); Agriculture; Interior; and Financial Services and General Government (FSGG)
- Week of July 29: Energy and Water; Transportation, Housing, and Urban Development (THUD); Labor and Health and Human Services
The most difficult bills are intentionally being saved for last, and few top aides realistically think the House will manage to pass all twelve bills via regular order despite many rank-and-file Members clamoring for leadership to do just that. A more likely scenario is that the House sends Members home early if and when they hit a wall on appropriations.
Oversight and Investigations. After the House voted to hold Attorney General Merrick Garland in contempt of Congress for failing to turn over the audio recordings of President Biden’s interview with special counsel Robert Hur, there has been a renewed push by Republican members across the ideological spectrum to find the Attorney General in “inherent contempt” of Congress, which could involve directing the House Sergeant at Arms to arrest the AG and/or levying a daily fine of up to $10,000 for each day that the AG fails to transmit the files requested by Congress.
In the wake of last week’s Presidential debate, House Republicans are feeling vindicated in seeking to bring to light the Special Counsel’s interviews, in which he concluded in part that prosecution was not warranted due to the fact that the President was an “elderly man with a poor memory.” We anticipate further escalation of this fight with the AG as soon as next week.
Additional Legislative Items. Next week, the House will consider H.R. 8281, the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility or “SAVE Act” sponsored by Representative Chip Roy (R-TX). The bill would require states to obtain proof of citizenship, in-person, when registering an individual to vote, and require states to remove non-citizens from their existing voter rolls.
The House will also take up H.J. Res. 165, a resolution under the Congressional Review Act (CRA) to disapprove and reverse the Biden Administration’s final Title IX rule that Republicans feel would harm the safety of women and girls and their access to educational opportunities.
BICAMERAL LEGISLATIVE PRIORITIES
Appropriations. Given that none of the twelve appropriation bills will be signed into law by the end of the fiscal year on September 30, a short-term Continuing Resolution (CR) will be necessary and will serve as the major focus of the three-week September work period, during which time the House and Senate will have to agree on its duration.
While many Republicans in the House, and some in the Senate, would like to see a September CR stretch into 2025 so as to remove the possibility of a lame duck omnibus spending bill, it is more likely that Congress will opt for an initial CR that runs to late November or early December, and that post-election legislative options will be assessed at that time. The September CR will carry the usual extensions (flood insurance; health extenders, TANF etc.) along with any other “anomalies” agreed to by both parties. OMB recently sent the Hill a request for supplemental disaster funding-including over $4B for reconstruction of the Key Bridge in Baltimore-and elements of it could be considered as necessary as part of this discussion.
NDAA. Even absent a Senate floor process on NDAA in July, House and Senate Armed Services Committee staffs, along with Leadership and other relevant committees, will work over the summer to begin to “preconference” a final bill that should ultimately pass during the lame duck session. Given that NDAA is a “must pass” piece of legislation, we expect a negotiation over possible additions, including outbound CFIUS and stablecoins/crypto to continue into the fall, driven largely by outgoing House Financial Services Chairman McHenry. Each of these items faces policy and political obstacles to enactment on the NDAA, but at this stage we view a financial services package as possible for inclusion later in the year.
Budget Reconciliation. Planning for 2025 continues, with House and Senate Republican leadership encouraging all committees to put together a menu of options for potential items to be addressed next year, particularly if Republicans win the House/Senate/White House and can move a bill under budget reconciliation. If so, Senate Republicans would like to be able to move relatively quickly next year, and thus are using the remainder of this year to plan for it, as well as for other post-election scenarios. Unless action is taken, the individual and small business tax provisions of the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act expire at the end of 2025. While tax would be the centerpiece of a reconciliation measure, it is likely other non-tax items would be considered for inclusion, including immigration/border security and energy production, and others. If control of Washington is divided, a protracted negotiation between the parties on tax is expected.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. The headlines this week will clearly be driven by President Biden as he navigates the fallout from last week’s debate with former President Trump, with an uncertain outcome. The Republican National Convention immediately follows, presumably along with Trump’s decision as to who be nominated to run as his Vice President. The next few weeks and months are consequential in Congress not so much for lawmaking in the immediate term as both parties continue to frame issues ahead of the forthcoming election, but rather for their internal strategizing for how best to capitalize legislatively in lame duck and next year.
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