Congress returns from the Memorial Day Recess this coming Monday, June 3, for the start of the summer congressional work period. Below is an outline of what to expect on the Hill in the leadup to August, as well as a lookahead to the remainder of the legislative year.
SENATE
The forthcoming three-week work period represents the longest stretch of Senate session until September, but each of the Senate’s three session weeks in June are expected to be short due to holidays and no-vote days, limiting opportunities to legislate. The focus will instead be on nominations, with some one-off votes on hot button political issues that are largely meant to help vulnerable Senate Democratic incumbents running for re-election – none of which should be viewed as lawmaking exercises.
Week of June 3. When the Senate convenes on Monday, it will proceed to executive session to consider the nomination of Christopher Hanson to be a member of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, with a cloture vote scheduled for 5:30pm. As the Senate moves into Tuesday and Wednesday, we expect a confirmation vote on Hanson’s nomination as well as cloture and confirmation votes on Tanya Monique Jones Bosier and Judith Pipe, both to serve as Associate Judge of the D.C. Superior Court, and Stephanie Sanders Sullivan to serve as Representative to the African Union. Thursday, June 6, marks the 80th anniversary of the historic storming of Omaha Beach in 1944. It is unclear whether the Senate will be voting that day, with some members planning to travel to Normandy to mark D-Day.
Weeks of June 10 and 17. The second week of the work period features a no-vote Monday, meaning that the first vote is not likely to occur before 5:30 pm on Tuesday, truncating the week. The Senate is also scheduled to be out of session on Wednesday, June 19, in celebration of Juneteenth. It is unclear if they will return to session on the 20th or if Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will instead send members off to recess early. Either way, votes on nominations, Congressional Review Act (CRA) resolutions of disapproval on Biden rulemakings, and potentially political show votes expected to fail remain the likely course in June, with legislation relating to contraception and possibly the Wyden-Smith tax bill as leading possibilities for the latter category.
NDAA. Off the floor, the Senate Armed Services Committee is expected to mark up the FY25 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) during the week of June 10. It is possible that the Senate could consider NDAA on the floor later this summer, but likely not until the end of July given the choppiness of the calendar. Expect Senate Republicans to push Leader Schumer to take up the bill in July. Either way, NDAA is not expected to be finalized until much later in the year, at which point it could potentially carry any ancillary items agreed to in the lame duck session. Note that if the NDAA receives a Senate floor process in July, it could be-as was the case last year-a magnet for amendments, some of which touch on adjacent policy and some of which are non-germane to the base bill.
FY25 Appropriations. Members of both parties remain interested in pursuing FY25 appropriations bills, though expectations are extremely low that regular order bills will be agreed to with the House ahead of September 30. The biggest issue come September will be determining for what duration the initial continuing resolution (CR) should run, with many House and some Senate Republicans already pushing for a multi-month CR to run into 2025 so as to take an omnibus off the table for lame duck. More likely to carry the day, however, is a CR into late November or early December, at which point lame duck plans will be reassessed pending the election outcome. The CR would also likely extend a handful of policy items that expire at the end of September, most notably the Farm bill, the National Flood Insurance Program, and TANF.
In the meantime, we do not expect any FY25 appropriations bills to come to the Senate floor due to lack of floor time as well as likely disagreements between the parties on total spending levels. How fulsome a process occurs in the Senate Appropriations Committee this summer remains an open question.
It also remains possible, depending on the magnitude of natural disasters this summer, that the Senate might need to act to plus-up the disaster relief fund (DRF) before it leaves for August, but based on its current trajectory it is more likely that the DRF can wait until the CR (Sept. 30) for its next influx in cash.
Additional Legislative Items. Leader Schumer continues to tout a lengthy list of legislation that could be brought to the floor, and it is possible that one or more of them could ultimately receive a test vote in June or July. At this point, it is unlikely that any will make its way through the Senate process, let alone become law, ahead of the election. The list of stated possibilities includes:
- Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA)
- Executive Compensation (RECOUP Act)
- Cannabis banking (SAFER Banking Act)
- Railway safety (Railway Safety Act)
- China legislation
- Prescription drug price control legislation
- Farm bill (commodity price supports + SNAP benefits)
- Domestic supplemental for Baltimore/disaster relief fund (if necessary prior to the next CR)
HOUSE
Much like the Senate, a certain level of choppiness in the upcoming House calendar will serve to hinder an otherwise ambitious legislative schedule. Also like the Senate, House Republican Leadership will undoubtedly force a number of political votes, hoping to put vulnerable Democratic Members in difficult positions while shoring up their own swing districts. Below reflects the current House agenda, as well as items to watch that are occurring behind the scenes.
FY25 Appropriations. Under its new chairman, Tom Cole (OK), the House Appropriations Committee adopted overall spending levels for each of the 12 individual funding bills (“302(b)s”) and has begun its mark-up process. Democrats have already cried foul, accusing Republicans of violating the funding levels of the Fiscal Reduction Act (FRA) that was negotiated by then-Speaker McCarthy and President Biden last spring and reaffirmed by Speaker Johnson, Leader Schumer, and President Biden this winter. Republicans, meanwhile, insist that the FRA set a spending cap and that coming in under budget is not violative of the agreement. Regardless of who is right, the House process will be partisan.
Majority Leader Scalise outlined the following ambitious schedule for consideration of all 12 bills before the August Recess:
- Week of June 3: Milcon/VA
- Week of June 24: Homeland Security; State/Foreign Ops; DOD
- Week of July 8: Leg Branch
- Week of July 22: Ag; Commerce Justice Science; Interior; Financial Services and General Government
- Week of July 30: Energy and Water; Transportation/HUD; Labor/HHS
NDAA. Having approved its annual authorization prior to the Memorial Day Recess by a vote of 57-1, the House Armed Services Committee is scheduled to consider its NDAA on the House floor the week of June 10. What is not yet known, however, is whether the committee’s bipartisanship will survive the House floor. Roughly 200 amendments have already been filed with the Rules Committee and hundreds more are expected prior to today’s 4:00pm deadline, a number of which are bound to be controversial if made in order. Should any such hot button amendments pass during House floor consideration as occurred last year (i.e. on the DoD abortion policy), the bill will lose almost all Democratic support. Last year, only 4 Democrats voted for the original House-passed version of the NDAA. As such, Leadership will have a tightrope to walk as it works to continue the 60+ year streak of passing an NDAA into law.
Reconciliation. Should Republicans retain the House and flip the Senate and Donald Trump win the presidential election, reconciliation will-once again-be back on the table. The process has now been successfully used in each of the last three unified governments (Obama in 2009-2010, Trump in 2016-2017, and Biden in 2021-2022) and produced massively influential laws (Affordable Care Act, Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and Inflation Reduction Act, respectively).
As such, House Republicans have already begun planning for another bite at the apple with renewal (and possible expansion) of TCJA at the top of their list. But unlike 2017 when they attempted two bills (ACA repeal and replace which failed and TCJA which passed), this time House Republicans are discussing one bill that is all-encompassing. Not only is TCJA to be included, but so could any number of other policy goals (e.g., immigration/border security, repeal of parts of IRA, permitting reform, etc.).
Majority Whip Tom Emmer and Chief Deputy Whip Guy Reschenthaler have been tasked with leading listening sessions with Members to educate and solicit input. Meanwhile, outside budget experts, think tanks, and former Trump officials have been brought in to opine on strategy, tactics, and substance-all of which is being communicated and coordinated with the Trump campaign. Should Republicans catch the proverbial car, they are likely to be more well-organized heading into the new Congress. But speed bumps remain, including the size of the majority, resolution of FY25 funding, the election of the Speaker, and, of course, the ominous Senate Byrd Bath.
Off the Floor. A number of committees will continue to pursue policy priorities in the hopes of future lawmaking, most notably:
- Agriculture: Farm Bill mark-up with a goal of floor consideration prior to the September 30 deadline. Given Democratic opposition to the chairman’s mark, the floor is not guaranteed and a reconciled bill with the Senate is virtually impossible this Congress. More likely is an extension in the CR that sets up a new negotiation next Congress with both Democrats and Republicans hoping for unified control.
- Education and the Workforce: Chairwoman Virginia Foxx will continue the high-profile effort to combat antisemitism on college campuses. Yale University and the University of Michigan will participate in transcribed interviews with the Committee on June 20th following the appearances of several other university Presidents in recent months. The Committee has requested information and documents including information to evaluate compliance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 at institutions of higher learning. The Committee’s investigation into this issue will continue this summer and into the fall.
- Energy and Commerce: The committee’s comprehensive data privacy legislation passed its first hurdle, clearing subcommittee markup via a voice vote. Next is full committee markup, likely the week of June 11 or June 25. We expect continued tweaks to the bill along the way as the committee attempts to thread a tricky bipartisan needle on a long discussed priority. In addition, the committee made waves when Chair Rodgers and Ranking Member Pallone came out in support of sunsetting section 230 (of the Communications Decency Act) protections for tech companies. Beyond the recently held legislative hearing, however, no further action has been announced on the section 230 bill.
- Financial Services: As much as any one chairman, Patrick McHenry is laser focused on the lame duck and setting up as many legislative priorities as possible for success. This includes digital assets (both stablecoins and market structure), capital market and formation policy (dozens of bipartisan bills), a sanctions-only China investment approach, and artificial intelligence principles (a bipartisan committee working group is set to produce a report in June).
- Science, Space, and Technology: Earlier this year, Speaker Johnson and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries created a bipartisan Task Force to study AI-both the policy implications of advancements and the race to compete with China. As such, Chairman Frank Lucas and the Science Committee have been assigned the role of staffing the Task Force. They are expected to produce a report no sooner than November and are actively seeking stakeholder input.
- Ways and Means: While Chairman Jason Smith remains adamant that the Senate consider his tax bill, he is now fully focused on expiration of the Trump tax cuts (TCJA) next Congress. As such, he has created Republican-only committee member “tax teams” to dissect the code, reeducate the Republican Conference, and identify priorities. As has been coined, 2025 is shaping up to be the “Tax Super Bowl.”
Miscellaneous. As mentioned, politics is likely to wield influence over the House’s floor schedule on a moment’s notice, likely resulting in resolutions on any number of topics, including but not limited to: antisemitism, the Biden investigation (including holding Attorney General Merrick Garland in contempt of Congress), border security, China (with a possible week of suspension items still rumored, highlighted by the BIOSECURE Act), COVID, DOJ, Israel and the ICC, Trump, etc. These votes are likely to emerge with little warning and in response to the news of the day.
Lastly, Speaker Johnson is finalizing plans to invite Israeli Prime Minister Bejamin Netanyahu to address a joint session of Congress prior to the August Recess. Timing is likely to be July and includes the required support of Leader Schumer. Expect this to be one of the more watched, dramatic, and impactful joint addresses since then-UK Prime Minister Tony Blair’s joint address following the invasion of Iraq.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. While the headlines over the coming weeks will focus on the political implications of the Trump verdict in New York, the first presidential debate on June 27, and the Republican and Democratic National Conventions (July 15-18 and August 19-22, respectively), there are a number of legislative vehicles still working their way through the House and Senate that are likely to reach the President’s desk-most notably the FY25 NDAA. Moreover, the appetite for deal making in lame duck will swing dramatically depending on the outcome of the November elections-with continued divided government portending a more robust lame duck session, while any form of unified government could push more major legislative action into 2025. We will be monitoring all of the above and will keep you apprised on key developments along the way.
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