Following a wild last week in the House that resulted in the GOP passing a multitude of major bills, Congress has been in recess this week. The Senate and House return Monday and Tuesday respectively for what will be a quick but impactful two-week work period prior to the Memorial Day recess. Both the Senate and House floors will be busy, with the primary legislative activity focused on budget reconciliation to fund Border Protection and ICE for the next three years. Additional measures will be considered, and a variety of committee activities are also underway. Below is an overview of what to expect over the next two weeks, followed by a look ahead to the summer months.
Senate Floor in May: Nominations, Privileged Legislation, Member Pay, and Budget Reconciliation
Nominations. The Senate returns to session on Monday with a 5:30 p.m. vote on adoption of the resolution necessary for consideration of its first en bloc package of nominations this year. The resolution provides for consideration of 49 Trump Administration nominations to a number of departments and agencies, as well as U.S. Attorneys, U.S. Marshals, Ambassadors, and more. While they complete the first stage of the process on Monday, confirmation of these nominations is anticipated to occur during the week of May 18, prior to the Senate turning to reconciliation legislation.
Also on Monday evening, the Senate will vote to begin consideration of the nomination of Kevin Warsh to serve as a Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System for a fourteen-year term; confirmation should occur on Tuesday. Later in the week, the Senate will also vote to confirm Warsh as Chairman of the Board of Governors for a four-year term; that vote will occur ahead of Jerome Powell’s last day as Chair, Friday May 15.
Privileged Legislative Items. The Senate is also expected to consider a slew of Democratic-sponsored privileged resolutions of disapproval relating to rules rolled back by President Trump’s Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. There are more than 20 such resolutions that may receive votes. While none of the rule rollbacks are likely to pass the Senate and House, let alone be signed into law, the votes are intended to put members on the record on politically sensitive consumer issues, such as medical debt.
Member Pay. The Senate is expected to take up a resolution supported by Senator Kennedy (R-LA) that would escrow senators’ pay in the event of a government shutdown until the shutdown ends.
War Powers. Notwithstanding President Trump’s declaration last week that military action in Iran has ceased, it remains likely that the Senate will consider additional War Powers Resolution votes that, if enacted, would force the President to halt hostilities in Iran. Several such votes have occurred to date, none of which have cleared the Senate. Rather, they have largely broken along party lines, with one Democrat, Senator John Fetterman (PA), voting with the GOP, and one Republican, Senator Rand Paul (KY), voting with Senate Democrats.
Several GOP members have publicly stated they may reconsider their positions now that military action in Iran has surpassed the 60-day mark, a milestone that occurred just prior to the start of the recess, but for now these votes remain largely symbolic. To legally constrain the President, legislation would need to pass both the House and Senate with sufficient support to override a presidential veto—an outcome that is not expected. As a result, Congress’s most effective legislative check remains its authority to appropriate or not appropriate funds—the power of the purse – which will manifest when the White House seeks more funds for the military in a supplemental appropriations request.
Budget Reconciliation. With both the Senate and House GOP having passed identical budget resolutions, the stage is set for narrow reconciliation legislation to move through Congress during this work period. The legislation, released last week by Senate Republicans, includes approximately $70 billion in mandatory funding for the Department of Homeland Security to cover the costs of Border Protection and ICE for three fiscal years. This approach is being taken in lieu of regular annual appropriations due to ongoing policy disagreements between Republicans and Democrats over those agencies. Because the mandatory funding is intended to replace unpaid-for discretionary spending, it will not be offset. Below are the major steps anticipated over the next two weeks in the Senate reconciliation process.
Byrd Bath. Next week, both Senate Republican and Democratic staff will have the opportunity to present their arguments to the Senate Parliamentarian as to what provisions in the draft bill qualify for inclusion in reconciliation under stringent rules governing use of this process. Republicans will argue that no provisions in the draft bills are primarily policy-driven, while Democrats will challenge those claims in an effort to derail the legislation or force significant revisions. However, given that mandatory funding for Border Protection and ICE was successfully included in last year’s reconciliation bill, major challenges to the draft legislation are unlikely to be successful.
One new addition to the bill is $1 billion for the Secret Service to upgrade security within the White House perimeter, including for the East Wing Modernization Project, the centerpiece of which is the much-discussed White House ballroom. That provision is likely to receive a Byrd Rule challenged as a congressionally directed earmark, with its budgetary impact merely incidental to the underlying policy objectives.
Committee Markup(s). On Tuesday, May 19, it is likely that at least one, and possibly both, of the instructed Senate committees—Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs (HSGAC) and Judiciary—will mark up their respective portions of the reconciliation bill. A markup in HSGAC is highly likely, while a Judiciary markup has been noticed but remains uncertain. On Wednesday, May 20, the Senate Budget Committee is expected to meet to report the combined measure for floor consideration, with a vote to proceed anticipated later that day.
Senate Floor. Floor consideration of reconciliation legislation is limited to 20 hours of debate, equally divided between the parties; time can be yielded back. Under the current plan, most of the debate will occur on Thursday, May 21, followed by a “vote-a-rama” during which senators, in this case primarily Democrats, may offer an unlimited number of germane amendments, each subject to an up-or-down vote. The requirement that amendments be germane is critical, and the scope of amendments will be tightly constrained if committee markups are completed in advance. Democrats may also force non-germane “message votes,” but those would involve points of order subject to waiver under a 60-vote threshold.
Assuming the Senate passes the reconciliation legislation late Thursday or early Friday, the House is expected to take up and pass the measure before departing for the Memorial Day recess.
House Floor Outlook
Police Week. The House will remain busy over the next two weeks, processing a variety of bills while members wait for the Senate to send over reconciliation legislation. Next week is Police Week, during which time the House will consider public-safety-themed bills, including:
- H.R. 2853 – Combatting Organized Retail Crime Act (CORCA)
- H.R. 5625 – Cashless Bail Reporting Act
- H.R. 6260 – Keeping Violent Offenders Off Our Streets Act
- H.Con. Res. 96 – Expressing support for law enforcement officers
FY27 Appropriations. In addition, the House will also begin the FY27 Appropriations process, with H.R. 8469, the Military Construction, Veterans Affairs and Related Agencies Appropriations Act slated for consideration.
Iran War Powers. House Democrats may again seek to force a vote on privileged legislation seeking to constrain President Trump from waging war with Iran. As with the Senate, the House has had several Iran votes thus far, each narrowly failing largely on party lines.
Week of May 18. During the week of May 18, prior to consideration of reconciliation legislation, the House may consider additional appropriations measures as well as H.R. 4312, the SCORE Act, which provides a framework for the compensation of student athletes for the use of their name, image or likeness (NIL).
Housing. The House also continues to consider its options regarding the Senate’s bipartisan 21st Century Road to Housing legislation and could vote on an amended version of that bill as well, though consideration could easily slip to June. In the meantime, Financial Services Committee leadership continues to work on potential amendments to the Senate bill, including with respect to Build-to-Rent (BTR) properties owned by institutional investors; the five-year ban on a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC); and potentially additional provisions originally included in the House’s bill.
Looking Ahead to June
FISA. In June, the Senate will again confront the pending expiration of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which, following its recent 45-day extension, is authorized through June 12. Prior to that extension, House Republicans passed a three-year renewal with reforms to the program and paired it with a permanent ban of a central bank digital currency. Senate Democrats have objected to a permanent ban, leaving the issue unresolved in the Senate and necessitating the enactment of a short-term extension before the recess. The Senate is expected to devote part of early June to considering a longer-term extension that includes reforms to the program.
Market Structure Legislation. After months of false starts, the Senate Banking Committee is expected to mark up its portion of market structure legislation on May 14. This follows an agreement announced last week by Senators Tillis (R-NC) and Alsobrooks (D-MD) on stablecoin yield, though that agreement does not have the support of the major bank trade associations, nor have Banking Committee Democrats yet agreed to support the legislation, in part due to their desire to include ethics provisions barring senior federal officials, including elected members and the President, from benefiting from personal financial interests in the crypto industry.
The goal of the Senate GOP remains to pass a bill through the Senate that the House and Administration will both accept. Once reported by the Banking Committee, there still may be significant work ahead to put the legislation in a form necessary to get 60 votes on the Senate floor. This reflects both lingering disagreements with banks over stablecoin yield and continued Democratic reluctance to support the bill for the reasons outlined above.
NDAA. The annual NDAA remains one of the few remaining bills that is enacted every year, without fail. The House Armed Services Committee is expected to markup the FY27 NDAA on June 4th and the Senate Armed Services Committee will markup shortly thereafter. The House is likely to consider the NDAA on the floor the last week of June and the Senate may also attempt to at least begin consideration before the July 4th recess. The topline authorized number remains under discussion with Committee leadership and Congressional leaders, particularly given the President’s $1.5 trillion defense spending request ($1.15 trillion for core operations; $350 billion for modernization, increasing the industrial base, and advanced munitions).
FY27 Appropriations. Given the record-long government shutdown last year, and the high-profile lapse in funding to DHS that followed this year, it is easy to overlook the fact that Congress ultimately enacted 11 of 12 full year FY26 appropriations bills on a bipartisan basis. To this point, there is no agreement on a topline spending number for FY27 bills, but Congressional leaders begin the appropriations season with hopes that last year’s success can be replicated (and pain points avoided). In order to get there, differences over spending priorities—defense and non-defense—will have to be bridged. Expect Senate Appropriators to work to try to reach common ground to the degree possible over this summer, prior to what will be a necessary short-term CR come September 30, a month before the election.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. With a border security-themed reconciliation bill on a relatively smooth glide path toward completion prior to the President’s June 1 deadline, Congress’ attention will soon turn to the summer months and what remaining legislative priorities might be accomplished before the election. The September work period will be short, with a focus on extending government funding beyond September 30. Therefore, any heavy legislative lifting needs to be done by August, or likely will wait until after the election.
The Senate’s floor schedule could be used in many different ways in June and July, but the setup for how best to utilize scarce floor time is beginning now. If Congress can act on a multi-year extension of FISA 702 authority by mid-June, it will have some runway into August as members continue to resolve differences on items including the housing bill and market structure. The summer months will also see action on both appropriations and the annual NDAA, though those items will not be completed prior to November’s elections. Further, the Senate will spend some time on the floor confirming judicial nominations, and potentially open Cabinet positions given the firings that have begun to occur.
At this time, several other items generating strong member interest—including energy permitting reform, the farm bill, and surface transportation reauthorization—are less likely to move this year. If that is to change, there will need to be a shift in momentum in the coming weeks before the calendar becomes prohibitive.
Perhaps the biggest wild card at present—outside of a Supreme Court vacancy, were one to occur—relates to a request that has not yet been made by the White House: a supplemental spending bill. Once reconciliation 2.0 is complete, the Administration will likely turn its attention to this effort, the centerpiece of which will be funding for military operations. Such legislation might also include emergency funding for farmers. Congressional GOP leaders may try to move a supplemental bill this summer or as part of a September CR. Either way, absent a third reconciliation effort, supplemental spending will require Democratic votes to pass.
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Happy Mother’s Day to all the mom’s out there, including Jen, Kristan, Kristen, Cippy and Giulia!