Moments ago, the House Republican Reconciliation bill (dubbed “The One, Big, Beautiful Bill”) failed to clear the House Budget Committee by a vote of 16-21. Four fiscal conservatives voted no, including Reps. Chip Roy (TX), Ralph Norman (SC), Josh Brecheen (OK), and Andrew Clyde (GA). A fifth Republican, Rep. Lloyd Smucker (PA), voted no for the purposes of being able to call up a motion to reconsider the bill early next week.
As such, no further action is anticipated today in the Budget Committee and the panel will look to reconvene as early as this Sunday to try again.
Importantly, reconciliation rules require that the House Budget Committee approve the combined instructions of the authorizing committees, so Leadership has no choice but to reach an agreement with the House Freedom Caucus (HCF) over the weekend if they are to advance the unified bill-the contours of which will likely revolve around moving up the implementation date for Medicaid and SNAP work requirements, and other changes to more quicky implement deficit reduction measures.
However, the Budget Committee cannot amend the text it receives from the authorizing committees, so any such deal would need to be a handshake agreement. A self-executed manager’s amendment will be presented to and approved through the Rules Committee-the same panel on which two of the no votes from the Budget Committee, Reps. Roy and Norman, also serve.
In addition, House Leadership will continue to scrub text over the weekend with their Senate counterparts to eliminate any “fatal flaws,” that would jeopardize simple majority privilege in the Senate (e.g., any provisions that implicate non-instructed committees). This process is separate but related to the “Byrd Bath” process, which will be ongoing when a bill eventually reaches the Senate but does not otherwise threaten privilege.
And, of course, the Speaker continues to negotiate with SALT caucus Members to include a deal on raising the cap-and potentially expiration date-above and beyond what Ways and Means reported.
Finally, given the constrained timeline that House and Senate leadership are working off of to send a bill to the President’s desk by July 4 (or the August Recess), House Leadership no longer expect to pursue a formal conference committee process, but rather an informal conference will be utilized so as to move as expeditiously as possible.
OUTLOOK/ANALYIS. While today was undoubtedly a setback for House Leadership, it was not entirely unforeseen and is arguably a necessary step in the process of bringing members of the HFC around to support a final package. President Trump’s return to Washington from his Middle East trip will also be valuable in working over these final holdouts.
Moreover, so long as an agreement can be reached this weekend with both conservatives and the SALT caucus, Leadership can still achieve their goal of moving a bill through the Rules Committee and on and off the House floor successfully before the Memorial Day recess.
In summary:
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