Just before 3:00 a.m. this morning, the House adopted the rule for consideration of the reconciliation bill (H.R. 1, The One Big Beautiful Bill Act), by a vote of 217-212 with Rep. Thomas Massie voting no.
The House completed all general debate on the bill at approximately 6:00 a.m. and just now successfully concluded votes on the Democratic motion to recommit (MTR), which failed, and final passage of H.R. 1, which passed by a vote of 215-214-1. Two Republicans voted no (Massie and Warren Davidson) and one Republican voted present (Andy Harris).
With a successful final passage vote in the House, the reconciliation bill now moves to the Senate for its consideration after the Memorial Day Recess.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. The House is clearing a monumental step in passing its version of reconciliation. Despite the media’s skepticism, Leadership has remained on schedule with reconciliation and enactment by July Fourth remains a possibility, though optimistic.
That said, the legislative process only gets more difficult from here. The Senate will make its own mark on the bill and is likely to change key provisions of the House’s legislation. Leader John Thune has his own vote issues to contend with that don’t necessarily align with the House’s pressure points (e.g., SALT, business extenders permanence, IRA credits, debt limit increase level, etc.). How far the Senate goes in altering the House’s product will likely determine whether enactment by July Fourth is possible.
At this point, we do not foresee a formal conference committee between the two chambers. Rather, the House is likely to pre-negotiate a final bill with the Senate once it passes its amended version of H.R. 1 and then take up that final compromise once it receives the Senate’s amendment. In any case, we remain bullish that President Trump will sign H.R. 1 into law this summer prior to the August Recess.
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