Senate Narrowly Passes OBBBA. After a marathon voting session that began at 9:30am on Monday, the Senate has just passed its version of the OBBBA by a vote of 51 – 50, with Vice President Vance breaking the tie. OBBBA continues the tax relief enacted during President Trump’s first term, reduces mandatory spending, increases border security and defense spending and raises the nation’s borrowing limit by $5 trillion, sufficient to last into 2027. It now will be sent to the House for anticipated votes on Wednesday (more on the House below).
Drama In the Senate. The final Senate vote was in peril for several hours this morning as the Senate GOP struggled to find sufficient votes to move forward. In the end, Senators Paul, Tillis and Collins joined all 47 Democrat Senators in opposing the reconciliation bill, while Sen. Lisa Murkowski emerged as the swing vote in the critical final hours. Despite heavily criticizing the bill throughout the process, Senators Johnson, Lee and Rick Scott voted for the legislation; the biggest challenge was corralling the more moderate members of the caucus.
As that played out behind the scenes over many hours, the “vote-a-rama” featured votes on nearly 50 motions and amendments, a vote-a-rama record. The vast majority of those amendments were rejected on party line votes. The four amendments that passed included Sen. Blackburn’s motion to strike the AI pause provisions in the Commerce Committee’s title of the bill, as well as the “wrap around” amendment offered by Sens. Graham and Thune which incorporated final changes into the bill. (The wrap around amendment can be found here and redline here).
The Senate GOP also voted to uphold use of their current policy baseline, and once again sidestepped having to directly overrule the Parliamentarian. Shortly before final passage, Leader Schumer raised a point of order against the title of the bill – One Big Beautiful Bill Act – as violative of the Byrd Rule (no budgetary impact). The point of order was sustained, and the title was excised from the bill (similar to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017).
Substantive Changes Made on the Floor. As the parliamentary Byrd scrub was ongoing through the day, a number of provisions that were in the substitute amendment offered on Saturday evening were removed as part of the wrap around amendment.
- New tax increase on third-party litigation funding structures sought by Sen. Tillis
- DOD multi-year operational plan
- Public lands/housing provision sought by Sen. Lee
- Alaska Medicaid and SNAP language sought by Sens. Murkowski and Sullivan
- Language on regulatory review sought by Sen. Lee
Additional substantive changes to the bill during vote-a-rama include:
- $50 billion for the rural health fund, meant to assist hospitals as the provider tax phases down
- Removal of the AI state regulatory prohibition language pursued by Sen. Cruz
- Restoration of the 25 percent taxable REIT asset test
- Removal of the novel excise tax on certain wind and solar electricity production with foreign components
House Process and Timeline
Now that the Senate has passed a revised version of the OBBBA, Speaker Johnson plans to move expeditiously to complete consideration of the bill in the lower chamber, enabling President Trump to sign it into law on July 4, as promised.
The House Rules Committee was scheduled to meet on the OBBBA at noon on Tuesday but given the delay in Senate passage, that timeline will slip to later in the day. Members have previously been told that votes will begin as soon as 9:00 a.m. on Wednesday. Leadership’s progress on shoring up current holdouts will dictate the exact schedule for the day with passage of the rule being the first key test for Speaker Johnson and the Leadership team.
Concerns with the final Senate agreement have been raised by various House Republican factions across the ideological spectrum, though fiscal hawks remain the loudest. Despite a bicameral Republican agreement on individual SALT caps, Rep. Nick LaLota appears to still have issues. Meanwhile, Rep. David Valadao-and potentially other House moderates-has emerged as currently opposed to the Senate’s increased Medicaid savings. Finally, the House Freedom Caucus, led by Rep. Andy Harris, continues to voice issues with the Senate’s deficit spending that exceeds the House bill’s parameters.
Given their narrow margin, House Republicans can only lose three votes if all Members are present and voting. Rep. Thomas Massie, who voted against the House version of the bill, is still expected to oppose the bill, leaving Leadership with just two more votes they can afford to lose.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. Despite the public statements of opposition from some House GOP Members, the Senate bill, which was supported by centrists and conservative Senators alike, will arrive in the House with exceptional momentum. President Trump remains highly popular with the GOP base and is coming off a week in which he notched numerous foreign and domestic policy wins, only adding to his strength. We expect the President, his Administration, campaign apparatus, and outside allies to apply significant pressure to any remaining House holdouts. Given the Senate’s success and the President’s ability to close, we remain bullish that Congress will send the OBBBA (as passed by the Senate) to the President’s desk for signature by July 4 as planned.
When Congress returns from the July Fourth Recess, attention will return to an expected ~10 trade agreements prior to the President’s July 9 deadline for reimposing elevated reciprocal tariffs, as well as bipartisan legislation like the GENIUS Act and the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Additional floor time is also planned for individual FY26 appropriations bills, though the process remains partisan at this point and likely won’t advance much further, necessitating a continuing resolution (CR) of some duration prior to September 30.
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