Last Friday proved to be a momentous day of news for House Republicans-the completion of the FY24 appropriations cycle, a major piece of legislation passing the House floor without a “majority of the majority,” a motion to vacate introduced, and the announced early resignation of another House Republican (and sitting chairman, no less). The day’s news will result in a material reshuffling of the House Republican Conference and below are some of the top considerations.
House Margin. The House now stands at 218 Republicans and 213 Democrats with four vacancies. This is a two-seat voting margin for the majority.
Of the four vacancies, three represent safe Republican seats: Ken Buck (CO), Bill Johnson (OH), and Kevn McCarthy (CA). One vacancy is a safe Democratic seat: Brian Higgins (NY).
When Mike Gallagher (WI) resigns on April 19, the majority’s margin will shrink to just one vote. Given Wisconsin’s election laws, Gallagher’s seat will remain vacant for the remainder of the term. Thus, while the vacancies are overwhelmingly Republican seats, the House majority will remain on a knife’s edge for the foreseeable future.
China Select Committee. With Gallagher’s announced departure in less than a month, Speaker Mike Johnson (LA) was immediately tasked on Friday with filling the top spot of the Select Committee on the CCP. This morning, the Speaker appointed John Moolenaar (MI) to fill the position. Select committee assignments are the sole prerogative of the Speaker and there were a number of considerations involved, making Johnson’s decision a bit more complicated.
Many expected Gallagher’s eventual successor to be either Andy Barr (KY), French Hill (AR), Darin LaHood (IL), or Rob Wittman (VA). Both Barr and Hill, however, are running to replace Patrick McHenry (NC) at the House Financial Services Committee (HFSC). Similarly, Rob Wittman is focused on succeeding Mike Rogers (AL) at the House Armed Services Committee. LaHood, meanwhile, is a leader at both the House Ways and Means Committee and the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence-the prospect of leadership at these two committees was enough to dissuade him from throwing his hat in the ring.
A fifth term Michigander serving in the seat formerly held by Dave Camp, Moolenaar is one of the most well-liked members of the House Republican Conference. As the Speaker announced in his press release this morning, John Moolenaar’s “leadership experience in the private and public sectors, his academic background, and his principled service in Congress have earned John the respect of his colleagues on both sides of the aisle.” In addition to his Select Committee assignment, Moolenaar is a longtime Appropriator and known as a soft-spoken, congenial, and serious legislator. Like the Speaker, he is also a devoutly religious man, having co-chaired the National Prayer Breakfast the past several years. We expect him to continue the cross-aisle collaboration that the Select Committee has become known for, preferring to work Member-to-Member as opposed to through the media.
Appropriations Committee. Following passage of the second FY24 appropriations minibus, Chairwoman Kay Granger (TX) announced that she would be stepping down from the committee’s top spot for the remainder of the Congress. She had already announced her retirement at the end of the Congress, but Friday’s news came as a surprise given the FY25 appropriations process is already underway.
While the House Republican Steering Committee will meet in the near future to recommend a new chair for ratification by the full Conference, Tom Cole (OK) has already emerged as the frontrunner to succeed Granger. Robert Aderholt (AL) enjoys the most seniority and could still make a play for the gavel.
Rules Committee. Should Cole become the next chair of the House Appropriations Committee, he will vacate his perch atop the Speaker’s Rules Committee. Given the committee is an extension of the Speaker’s authority, its chair is his prerogative to appoint.
There has been some talk of Guy Reschenthaler (PA), the current Chief Deputy Whip, filling the role. More likely is that Speaker Johnson will appoint a caretaker for the remainder of the Congress. As such, we expect Michael Burgess (TX) to be tapped by the Speaker following the Steering Committee’s decision with respect to Appropriations Chair.
Motion to Vacate. Finally, hanging in the air above all of this is Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (GA) introduction of a motion to vacate on Friday. Three House Republicans would have to vote in favor of the motion along with all House Democrats for it to succeed. At this point, the motion has not been offered as a privileged resolution. Thus, it is not the pending business before the House.
Last October, Democrats voted in unison to vacate the chair. This time around, there are signs that House Democrats could take a different approach-though likely only in exchange for concessions of their own, such as a guaranteed vote on aid for Ukraine.
While the Speaker has signaled an increasing openness to Ukraine aid in recent days, no single vote is more toxic with his right flank. As Chip Roy (TX) stated yesterday, “I can promise you, if you put a Ukraine bill on the floor and you haven’t secured the border, there’s going to be a problem within the ranks on Capitol Hill.” It is unclear where the Speaker will ultimately come down on the matter; is he willing to risk his job to attempt to muscle an aid package through the chamber and what is his willingness to rely on Democratic votes to preserve his speakership should a vote on a motion to vacate occur.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. Much remains in abeyance during the House’s two-week Easter Recess. Expect these storylines to dominate the Washington press in the interim, but most Members will be far from Washington and likely not engaged in these races and the surrounding intrigue. Regardless, Speaker Johnson will have much to contemplate and decide when the House returns to session on Tuesday, April 9. Committee assignments and the House’s pressing legislative agenda-namely, foreign aid and FISA reauthorization-will be very much intertwined.
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