As has been a hallmark of Trump 2.0, President Trump issued a number of Executive Orders (EO) and Proclamations late Friday. This follows a busy week of trade and foreign policy news. Below is a summary of actions taken by the Administration, all of which will have significant trade and market implications.
25 Percent Iranian Secondary Tariffs Imposed. The EO makes good on President Trump’s early January Truth Social post, imposing an additional ad valorem duty of 25 percent on imports from foreign countries that directly or indirectly purchase, import, or otherwise acquire any goods or services from Iran effective 12:01 a.m. EST on February 7, 2026. Commerce, in consultation with State, will determine foreign countries subject to the tariff and report its findings to State. The President will then make the determination of whether to subject each individual country identified to the new tariff. State, in consultation with Treasury, Commerce, Homeland Security, and USTR, will recommend any additional actions if this EO does not prove fully effective. In the event of a foreign country retaliating-including Iran-the President may modify the EO to take additional actions.
- Executive Order here
Argentina Reciprocal Trade Agreement Finalized. Following the framework reached in November, the U.S. and Argentina officially signed a reciprocal trade Agreement on February 5, 2026. Details can be found below:
India Reciprocal Trade Framework Reached. After bilateral trade agreement (BTA) negotiations were launched by President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on February 13, 2025, the two countries have finally settled on a Framework, with an Agreement planned by mid-March according to Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal. In addition to the Framework, the President agreed to remove the additional ad valorem rate of 25 percent duties imposed on India due to its purchase of Russian oil (outlined below). The Indian commitment to end purchases of Russian oil was not included in the Framework nor mentioned in Prime Minister Modi’s X post, but was affirmed in President Trump’s Truth Social post. The top lines of the Framework include:
- Reduced reciprocal tariff rate of 18 percent on Indian goods, including textile and apparel, leather and footwear, plastic and rubber, organic chemicals, home décor, artisanal products, and certain machinery
- Removal of the reciprocal tariffs identified in the September 5, 2025, EO 14346, including generic pharmaceuticals, gems and diamonds, and aircraft parts (subject to a formal agreement)
- Removal of tariffs on aircraft and aircraft parts imposed in Proclamation 9704 on March 8, 2018
- Removal of tariffs in Proclamation 10962 on July 30, 2025 (copper)
- Preferential tariff rate quota for automotive parts subject to the tariffs imposed in Proclamation 9888 on May 17, 2019.
- Contingent with the Section 232 investigation of pharmaceuticals, India will receive negotiated outcomes with respect to generic pharmaceuticals and ingredients
- Preferential market access for both sides in sectors of respective interest
- Development of rules of origin to ensure the Agreement accrues to the benefit of solely the two countries
- Address non-tariff barriers on: U.S. medical devices, U.S. Information and Communication Technology (ICT) goods and digital trade, and U.S. food and agricultural products
- Within six months of an Agreement reached, decide whether U.S.-developed or international standards, including testing requirements, are acceptable for the purposes of U.S. exports entering the Indian market in identified sectors
- Cooperation on inbound and outbound investment reviews and export controls.
- India commitment to purchase $500 billion of U.S. energy products, aircraft and aircraft parts, precious metals, technology products, and coking coal over the next 5 years
- Increased trade and cooperation in technology products, including Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) and other goods used in data centers
- Joint Statement here
25 Percent Tariff Removed on India, re: Russian Oil Imports. EO 14329 of August 6, 2025, imposed an additional ad valorem rate of duty of 25 percent on imports of articles of India, which, at that time, was directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil. Since then, India has committed to stop directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil and has represented that it will purchase U.S. energy products. Effective 12:01 a.m. EST on February 7, 2026, the EO eliminates the additional ad valorem rate of duty imposed on imports of articles of India pursuant to EO 14329. The EO further provides for refunds of duties collected, if necessary, to be administered by U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
- Executive Order here
Increased Beef Quotas from Argentina for 2026. Noting the role of the U.S. cattle herd in retail beef prices for American consumers, the President issued a proclamation on Friday to temporarily increase the aggregate in-quota quantity for lean beef trimmings by 80,000 metric tons (mt). The Proclamation cites a total of 94.2 million head of cattle as of July, 2025, including 28.7 million beef cows, noting that it is one percent lower than two years prior. Given the continued downward trend of U.S. cattle, the proclamation creates four separate 20 mt tranches on a first-come, first-served basis according to the following schedule:
- February 13-March 31
- April 1-June 30
- July 1-September 30
- October 1-December 31
- Proclamation here
Miscellaneous Trade News.
- China. President Trump and President Xi Jinping spoke on Wednesday, the first summary of which landed in a Trump Truth Social post here. Topics discussed appear to have included Taiwan, economic and trade cooperation, and global conflicts. According to Chinese state media, Xi reiterated that Taiwan is the “most important and sensitive” issue in the bilateral relationship and explicitly stated that Beijing will “never allow Taiwan to be split from China.” Amidst that backdrop, the U.S. and Australia continue to build out the HMAS Stirling naval base in Western Australia, providing an additional strategic berth (on top of Guam) for U.S. nuclear submarines. While Xi urged “extreme caution” with respect to Taiwan arms sale, the proverbial horse is already outside the barn. Notably, Xi had just spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin prior to the call with Trump.
- Critical Minerals. Quite a bit of news was made on critical minerals and rare earths over the course of last week. First, the Administration announced the creation of “Project Vault,” a new civilian stockpile financed through $1.67 billion in private capital and a record $10 billion loan from the Export-Import Bank. Second, the Administration convened a ministerial meeting in Washington with 54 participating countries, out of which came a number of agreements, including the U.S., EU, and Japan Critical Minerals Cooperation and the U.S.-Mexico Action Plan on Critical Minerals. For its part, Ex-Im CEO John Jovanovic told Bloomberg Television that the bank has “an assurance of repayment” and “a fantastic basket of credit risk to look to” upon which it will “earn interest.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio also announced the creation of FORGE, a successor group to the Biden administration-era Minerals Security Partnership, to be chaired by the Republic of Korea through June. At the end of the day, the Administration’s actions were best summed up by Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs Jacob Helberg: “And so, ultimately, countries want to diversify and de-risk the supply chain, which inherently means de-risking single points of failure.”
- Honduras. President Trump hosted Honduran President Nasry Asfura at Mar-a-Lago over the weekend, which purportedly focused on growing the countries’ security alliance to curb drug trafficking and migration. Trump, who backed Asfura’s presidential campaign, said “Tito and I share many of the same America First Values.”
- Iran. While formalizing the previously-threatened 25 percent tariff on countries doing business with Iran (outlined above), President Trump continued to pursue diplomacy over the week, with Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and U.S. Central Command Admiral Brad Cooper meeting the Iranians (sort of) on Friday in Oman through a mediator. The change of venue from Turkey to Oman reflected Iran’s insistence on keeping the talks limited to its nuclear program, rather than including negotiations over its regional proxies and/or ballistic missiles program. At this point, the talks appear as though they will continue with President Trump saying another meeting will take place this week. He will also meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday in Washington. Most outside observers believe a U.S.-led military strike is more likely than a diplomatic resolution, however. As Trump said on Friday, “If they [Iran] don’t make a deal, the consequences are very steep.” Importantly, Ramadan lasts from February 17 until March 18 this year, likely foreclosing a strike during that window.
- Japan. Validating her gamble to vie for an increased mandate after only 110 days into her premiership, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured an overwhelming electoral victory on Sunday. Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) achieved an absolute majority of Japan’s 465-member House of Representatives, increasing its seats from 198 to 316 (and the ruling coalition’s share to 354). Takaichi’s economic and military agenda will clearly move forward unabated, as will her close alignment with the Trump Administration. President Trump announced his support on Truth Social for Takaichi and confirmed a state visit to Washington on March 19. This will be especially important as Japan and China tensions build. The latter recently announced rare earth export curbs on Japan and accused Takaichi of “new militarism.”
- Mexico. Following the President’s January 29, 2026, EO imposing tariffs on countries shipping oil to Cuba, Mexico confirmed that it had canceled its latest scheduled delivery last month. With an eye towards domestic politics, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum stated that the decision was not a result of U.S. pressure and was instead a “sovereign decision.” The U.S. policy to affect regime change in Cuba continues apace as Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed on Thursday that his country has not received imported fuel since December. Further progress on the Mexican front came in the form of a renewed commitment and strengthening of the 1944 Water Treaty, with Mexico agreeing to delivery of 350,000 acre feet of water per year to the U.S. during the current five year cycle. Finally, the Senate Finance Committee will hold a hearing this Thursday, February 12, on USMCA.
- South Korea. In the hopes of tamping down recent friction between the two, Korean Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan visited Washington, the result of which was the formation of a special committee to work on implementing Korea’s investment commitments under its previously reached reciprocal Agreement. Korea’s hope is to forestall President Trump’s recent tariff threat and allow a “grace period of about one or two months” to allow the Korean parliament to clear the aforementioned investment bill. Meanwhile, tension over Korea’s investigation of U.S. e-commerce company Coupang continues, with House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) and Antitrust Subcommittee Chairman Scott Fitzgerald (R-WI) issuing a subpoena compelling Coupang to release documents related to the investigation.
- Wrapping up global news, we expect a visit to the U.S. by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at some point this year, as well as the finalization of the Indonesian reciprocal trade Agreement once President Trump and President Prabowo Subianto are able to meet, possibly this month. Lastly, the European Parliament has still not voted to advance the U.S. reciprocal trade Agreement.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. The Trump trade and foreign policy agenda shows no signs of slowing down as last week’s activity further demonstrates. Despite the recent software-related sell-off in U.S. equities and ongoing bond market volatility, the Dow finished over 51,100 at the end of Friday’s trading, just under a gain of 2,000 YTD. The President took a victory lap on his trade agenda in the opinion pages of the Wall Street Journal, asserting that the “experts” have all been proven wrong. Markets, however, will continue to look to monthly jobs and inflation data (due this week), as well as the policy implications of the pending Federal Reserve chairmanship nomination of Kevin Warsh, to make its judgement on the success of the President’s trade agenda. Importantly, we could be less than two weeks out from a monumental Supreme Court (SCOTUS) ruling of the use of IEEPA for the purposes of the President’s reciprocal tariffs.
Regardless of the SCOTUS outcome-and as we have been reiterating-tariffs on foreign goods are here to stay. But what we do see is a softening since Liberation Day, with many Frameworks and Agreements now reached, all representing lower rates and targeted carve-outs. We continue to watch for modifications to Section 232 tariffs with an eye on those most impactful to American consumer affordability, particularly steel and aluminum and construction inputs.
Tariffs aside, progress continues to be slow on both Ukraine/Russia and Iran. The outcome of those conflicts will play heavily into the President’s upcoming visit to Beijing in April, not to mention global markets, particularly oil. While China is clearly focused on U.S. concessions vis-à-vis Taiwan, President Trump appears to be courting Chinese investment in the U.S., including the auto sector. For now, the truce remains in place despite U.S. moves to push the CCP out of the Western Hemisphere and China’s export controls on silver (and pullback from U.S. Treasuries). The President’s State of the Union Address on February 24 is likely to touch on much of the above, particularly affordability issues.
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