Last night, the Senate took a major step forward by invoking cloture (60-40) on the motion to proceed to the House-passed CR, with the understanding that once on the bill Leader Thune will offer a now-public complete substitute amendment that:
- Extends the CR to January 30, 2026;
- Incorporates the bipartisan agreement for full year FY26 funding bills for Military Construction/VA, Agriculture and Legislative Branch; and
- Reverses the Administration’s Reductions-in-Force (RIFs) instituted during the shutdown
60 votes…on the button. 8 Senate Democrats joined 52 Republicans in voting to invoke cloture: Senators Cortez Masto, Durbin, Fetterman, Hassan, Kaine, King, Rosen and Shaheen. Senator Paul was the sole Republican to vote against cloture. While the vote leaves no margin for error, it is properly viewed as an indication that the Senate will pass the revised bill this week, timing TBD (more below). The White House has indicated that it supports the deal.
ACA Subsidies. In addition, Leader Thune has committed to holding a vote on extending the expiring ACA enhanced subsidy tax credits no later than the second week of December; it is possible there could be several alternatives voted on at that time. The House has not made any commitment to hold a vote on ACA subsidies irrespective of the Senate vote outcome, nor has the President indicated a willingness to sign any bill that excludes meaningful reforms. We expect bipartisan discussions on this to continue but the odds for enactment prior to the end of the year are uncertain at best.
Floor Process. In terms of final passage vote timing, the Senate is at the point in the process where it is up to Senators to decide when they would like to bring this process to a close. Senators could choose to have a final vote later today, or, at the other extreme, the process could be dragged out into the weekend, or some point in between. Any single Senator can force the Senate to go the long route here, but we view a time agreement of some sort as more likely than not. When the Senate convenes at 11am today we expect discussions to begin in earnest as to whether there’s a glide path to truncate the remaining steps, and on what timeframe.
House Action. Once the timing of Senate passage comes into greater focus the House GOP leadership will determine the timing of a House vote, the soonest possibility being Wednesday. As of this morning Members have been informed that they should begin returning to Washington, though they will receive a formal notice 36 hours ahead of a vote. GOP leadership is convening a conference-wide Member call at 11:30 this morning. Stay tuned …
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