Senate Votes this Evening. Following the deal struck by President Trump and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) late yesterday afternoon, and after an additional 24 hours of maneuvering to obtain a unanimous consent agreement to expedite passage, the Senate is expected to pass an amended funding bill imminently. The Senate has voted down several amendments prior to a vote on passage of what is now a five-bill minibus plus 14-day continuing resolution (CR) for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which runs through February 13. The bill as amended is expected to pass shortly, before being sent back to the House for floor action there early next week.
House/Monday. While no final decisions have been made as to the House floor process, GOP Leadership is leaning towards putting the revised bill up for a vote on the House’s suspension calendar on Monday. Placing the bill under suspension limits debate and forestalls amendments but requires a 2/3’s super majority vote to pass, meaning House Democrats will need to supply requisite votes. Alternatively, the House GOP could attempt to pass a party-line rule and bill — the Rules Committee is still tentatively scheduled to meet on Sunday in case that becomes necessary – but it brings with it additional potential problems given the GOP’s fractional majority. Hence, leadership leans towards suspension.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. The deal between President Trump and Senator Schumer, in part brokered by Senate Republicans, is a positive step forward. Assuming passage through the House on Monday, 11 of the 12 annual appropriations bills, accounting for 96 percent of discretionary funding, will be enacted into law for the remainder of Fiscal Year (FY) 26. The last bill, DHS Appropriations, will be operating on a very short-term CR of 14 days. This quick trigger came at the insistence of Senate Democrats who want to leverage the time frame to force statutory reforms to ICE, ranging from rules requiring coordination with states and localities, requirements for judicial warrants, a uniform code of conduct for federal agents, and banning mask usage while requiring use of body cameras. This sets up a high-stakes two-week discussion with the White House that will culminate either with a bipartisan bill or another shutdown threat for DHS prior to the scheduled President’s Day Recess week of Feb. 16.
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