Congress returns following the two-week Easter recess with a focus on the Department of Homeland Security which remains unfunded; continued military action in Iran; looming expiration of Section 702 of FISA; and a host of other issues and nominations. Much has transpired on several of these fronts over the recess, informing what we should expect both during the upcoming work period – three weeks for the Senate, two for the House – as well as in May prior to the Memorial Day recess.
DHS Funding. Following weeks of impasse and amid yet another lengthy DHS shutdown, at roughly 2 a.m. on Friday, March 27, the Senate passed by voice vote a partial DHS funding bill that excludes funding for Border Protection and ICE. As part of internal deliberations in the run-up to that decision, Senate GOP leaders began discussing the prospect of allowing the partial DHS funding bill demanded by Democrats to move forward, while saving Border Protection and ICE funding for a second budget reconciliation process to follow shortly thereafter. With that plan in mind, the GOP acquiesced to Senate Democratic demands to only partially fund DHS through September 2026 and sent the amended bill back to the House for further disposition. The Senate then promptly left town.
But House Republicans chose not to pass the Senate’s partial funding bill, and instead re-passed, on a party line basis, the full DHS funding bill prior to leaving town the same day. As a result, DHS has remained unfunded throughout the recess, though personnel are currently being paid per a Presidential directive, temporarily alleviating the pressure on TSA and the flying public.
Budget Reconciliation. Early last week, President Trump, Senate Majority Leader Thune and Speaker Johnson all stated they intend to support funding for Border Protection and ICE through a reconciliation process that can be passed on a party line basis, each noting that the bill should be narrow, focused and enacted quickly given funding exigencies. On Friday, following a White House meeting with Senate Majority Whip Barrasso and Budget Chairman Graham, President Trump again announced his support for such a plan, reiterating he needs this legislation delivered to him for signature by June 1, a very quick turnaround for a budget reconciliation process. To meet this deadline, Congressional leaders are working to keep the bill very narrow (unlike Trump’s last reconciliation measure, OBBBA).
The Senate will likely move to pass a budget resolution – necessary to enable the budget reconciliation process – as soon as the week of April 20 (although timing depends on when a FISA extension is passed). We do not anticipate that the Senate Budget Committee will hold a markup prior to floor action. Once the budget resolution is on the floor, debate can run for up to 50 hours (equally divided between the parties; time can be yielded back) prior to a “vote-a-rama” during which members – in this case mostly Democrats – can offer unlimited, non-binding amendments, many of which are geared to be difficult political votes.
The budget resolution does not itself craft policy, but does provide broad instructions to relevant committees, the critical step necessary to the legislative reconciliation process. While OBBBA was wide-ranging and involved about 10 House and 10 Senate committees, the Senate plan is to give instructions to only two committees – Senate Judiciary and Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs (HSGAC) – to report legislation that includes mandatory funding for Border Protection and ICE for a three-year period (the remainder of Trump’s term) at a total cost of roughly $60 billion.
Importantly, the Senate does not contemplate offsetting the cost of the legislation, on the grounds that it is a replacement for regular annual appropriations that are never offset. This has the additional virtue of sparing intra-party clashes of identifying offsets during an election year. Republicans are unified on the importance of providing DHS this funding, but less unified on other matters that could theoretically be included in a bill (e.g. Department of War funding; emergency aid to farmers) and whether and how it should be offset. Hence, the laser-like focus on restricting “reconciliation 2.0” to ordinary-course Border Protection and ICE funding.
Senate GOP leadership will spend this week ensuring they have a majority to execute this vision, starting with a budget resolution likely to be on the floor the week of April 20, after which the general expectation is that the House will follow suit. The hope going in is that the House GOP will accept the Senate’s budget resolution as-is; any additions to it would require further Senate action to ensure identical resolutions are enacted by each body, a prerequisite for reconciliation, thereby delaying and complicating the path to success.
If this proceeds smoothly, we anticipate that the two-week May work period in the Senate will be largely devoted to moving the actual reconciliation bill. At this point, it is likely that the Senate will again be the first mover, sending reconciliation legislation to the House for further consideration and approval.
In the meantime, the House GOP has not yet agreed to pass the unanimous Senate bill that funds the remainder of DHS through the fiscal year. House Republican leadership has raised that issue with the rank-and-file members and will continue those discussions when members are back this week. Initial feedback indicates that some are not comfortable passing the pared-back DHS bill until the Senate demonstrates it is serious about moving forward with reconciliation. It remains to be determined if the Senate passing a budget resolution will be enough to allow for a House vote on the full DHS funding bill.
FISA. Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), which permits warrantless surveillance of non-Americans located abroad, is set to expire on April 20, 2026. Even though it has been credited by national security professionals as critical for thwarting national security threats, it remains a contentious issue for civil libertarians. Extensions are generally strongly supported by the incumbent White House (of either political party) but are never easy to come by. Reforms to address concerns raised that 702 had at times been used improperly were implemented two years ago when FISA was last reauthorized, and congressional leaders would like to extend the law for 18 months without amendment.
The House leadership hopes to consider the bill under a rule this week, but it is not yet clear if the GOP has the support it needs with its narrow majority to pass a rule. In the alternative, House GOP leadership could put the extension on the floor as a suspension, but that requires a two-thirds majority vote, and it remains unclear whether Democrats will supply sufficient votes in that scenario.
If FISA legislation passes the House, Leader Thune will expedite it for a vote in the Senate, where it is likely to garner the necessary 60 votes to pass. If it becomes clear that the House cannot move its extension next week, it is possible the Senate will try to initiate its own, though this could push back the timeline for consideration of the DHS budget resolution.
SAVE America Act. The Senate spent several weeks prior to recess debating the SAVE America Act, which requires those registering to vote to prove citizenship. It is not in doubt that there are fewer than the 60 votes necessary to advance this legislation. President Trump has alternately called for the Senate GOP to “terminate the filibuster” in order to pass it on a party-line vote, or to force Democrats to engage in a “talking filibuster,” an idea being pushed by Sen. Mike Lee (and through a variety of MAGA channels). The Senate will continue debate of SAVE America, with neither a talking filibuster nor elimination of the legislative filibuster seriously in the cards, as there are not sufficient GOP votes to do either. It is also unlikely, despite some initial chatter to the contrary, that reconciliation 2.0 will include a “down payment” on the SAVE Act in the form of conditional funding to states based on implementation of voter integrity laws.
Additional Senate Floor Activity: Nominations. The Senate will also consider various nominations over the coming three weeks, including the slow trickle of judicial nominations through the pipeline. The most consequential nomination is Kevin Warsh, nominated to serve as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, but he is unlikely to be voted on in April due to a slow paperwork process and Sen. Tillis’ continued opposition in the Senate Banking Committee until the Trump DOJ concludes its investigation into current Chair Jerome Powell. Tillis has consistently said that he believes Warsh is an outstanding nominee, but that preservation of the independence of the Federal Reserve is the critical issue that must be addressed before he votes for a new Chair.
Senate leadership is also working to assemble an en bloc package of Trump Administration nominees for consideration in late April or May, consisting of 50+ nominees that will have been favorably reported by its committees by the end of this week. If any Republican Senator objects to inclusion of a specific nominee(s) in a package, leadership will work to confirm these nominations separately this spring.
Additional Senate Floor Activity: Privileged Legislative Items. The Senate is also likely to consider a number of privileged legislative items over the coming several weeks, including various Democratic-led attempts to overturn Trump Administration rules via the Congressional Review Act (CRA); another vote on an Iran War Powers Resolution; and a possible vote on Sen. Sanders’ resolution to ban arms sales to Israel. These efforts will not succeed in overturning rules or changing laws but will continue to be used to put members on record on various hot-button issues. There will also be action on several GOP-sponsored CRA resolutions of disapproval to overturn Biden Administration regulations, including overturning BLM’s 20-year mining ban in northern Minnesota.
Additional House Floor Activity. In addition to attempting to move the 18-month FISA extension, the partial DHS funding bill as passed by the Senate, and a forthcoming budget resolution to enable reconciliation to fund the remainder, the House is also expected to take up a variety of bills, including:
- Possible vote on Iran War Powers Resolution
- ALERT Act
- FENCES Act
- FIRE Act
- RED Tape Act
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. The upcoming six weeks prior to Memorial Day will be consequential to the GOP’s plans to fund DHS through a narrow reconciliation bill – an effort GOP leaders did not anticipate until very recently. To unify Republicans in both chambers, necessary given their very narrow voting margins, the GOP Congress and the President will need to remain disciplined so as not to open the legislation up to a broader array of policies that divide Republicans. That means that additional priorities such as supplementary defense funding are likely to be left for discussion at a later point, possibly in the context of yet another reconciliation bill; but first the Administration will have to make clear what it is requesting as well as what its plans are moving forward regarding Iran.
The next six weeks are also critical for additional potential key bipartisan items, including cryptocurrency regulation/market structure reform; energy permitting reform; privacy/KIDS online safety; housing legislation; and other major initiatives prioritized for action this election year. While none of these items are likely to be completed before Memorial Day, agreements will need to coalesce in relevant committees to have a realistic shot at floor time this summer, along with NDAA and potentially FY27 appropriations.
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