Facing disagreements within their conferences and with the White House, both House and Senate Republican leadership recessed earlier than originally planned for the Independence Day work period. Against that backdrop, Congress returns with ambitious goals, narrow margins, and an increasingly compressed legislative calendar. The Senate is scheduled to remain in session for four weeks before the August recess, while the House is scheduled to be in session for only two. Below is what to expect.
SENATE
The Senate returns Monday afternoon with a 5:30 p.m. vote on confirmation of Arthur Roberts Jones to be U.S. District Judge for the Southern District of Texas, followed Tuesday at noon by a vote on confirmation of Matthew Schwartz to be U.S. Circuit Court Judge for the Second Circuit. The Senate has devoted significant attention to judicial confirmations, having confirmed nearly 50 Article III judges during President Trump’s second term — a rate even faster than during his first term. We expect additional district and circuit judges to be confirmed throughout the work period as nominees become available for floor consideration.
Executive Nominations. In addition to judges, the Senate will continue processing executive branch nominations, and leadership is likely to move another package of nominations later in the month. GOP leadership will also seek to confirm Cabinet and Cabinet-level positions, including Todd Blanche (Attorney General), Jay Clayton (Director of National Intelligence), and possibly Keith Sonderling (Secretary of Labor).
FY27 National Defense Authorization Act. On Tuesday afternoon, the Senate is expected to vote on whether to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed to S. 4784, the National Defense Authorization Act for FY2027 (NDAA). This legislation was reported by the Senate Armed Services Committee in June by a bipartisan vote of 18-9, and the majority and minority staffs of the committee have spent the last few weeks putting together a managers’ package of additional member priorities to be included in the bill. Despite support from Ranking Member Senator Jack Reed (D-RI), 9 of 13 committee Democrats voted against reporting the measure, largely due to differences over the authorized spending level ($1.15 trillion, a significant increase over last year), as well as disagreements over Iran policy. This dynamic means that achieving 60 votes on the motion to proceed is a less-than-certain outcome.
If the votes are there, expect the Senate to spend some time processing the legislation; if not, the majority will need to pivot to additional nominations and legislation sooner than they would like. Legislative contenders for floor time include:
FISA Section 702. After several short-term extensions of this surveillance authority deemed critical by a broad range of national security experts, Sec. 702 of FISA lapsed in mid-June due to opposition from many Democrats, several Republicans, and, unexpectedly, President Trump. The President insisted that any extension be paired with the SAVE America Act while simultaneously directing that the confirmation hearing in the Senate Intelligence Committee for Jay Clayton, his nominee to be Director of National Intelligence (DNI), be delayed in order to ensure that Bill Pulte, his current head of the Federal Housing Finance Administration (FHFA), could serve as Acting DNI.
Clayton’s nomination hearing has been rescheduled for July 15, after which Senate leaders hope to move quickly on the nomination (simple majority required) and the three-year FISA extension from Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Tom Cotton (R-AR) and Ranking Member Mark Warner (D-VA). The legislation includes various privacy-themed reforms to the program and will require 60 votes for cloture. If the Senate can move that legislation quickly, it will be up to the House to follow suit before leaving town for its planned August recess.
Digital Asset Market Structure Reform. Senate Republican leadership would like to bring the CLARITY Act, which has been reported by the Banking Committee, to the floor in July. This legislation provides a comprehensive framework for the regulation of digital assets, a priority of both the Trump Administration and many members of the House and Senate. While the vote in Senate Banking was bipartisan, with Senators Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) and Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) joining all committee Republicans, it is unclear if there will be 60 votes when the bill is brought to the floor. Much of the discussion between the parties relates to implementing federal ethics rules that would prohibit senior government officials, including President Trump, from benefiting from the cryptocurrency industry.
Policymakers continue working to merge the Banking Committee and Senate Agriculture Committee portion of the bill reported last February, the Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act. If a bipartisan agreement emerges, and the Senate is able to proceed, we expect a substitute amendment to be introduced that makes any other changes necessary to achieve 60 votes for passage.
Protect College Sports Act. In late May, Senate Commerce Committee Chairman Ted Cruz (R-TX), Ranking Member Maria Cantwell (D-WA), Senator Eric Schmitt (R-MO), and Senator Chris Coons (D-DE) introduced S. 4668, the Protect College Sports Act. This legislation seeks to establish a uniform national framework for collegiate athletics by addressing high-profile issues including name, image, and likeness (NIL) rules, antitrust protections, transfer and eligibility rules, and student-athlete welfare. It also includes a provision to allow college athletic conferences and the NCAA to pool and sell broadcast rights, which is intended to generate revenue to help support college sports, including those that are non-revenue and Olympic sports.
The legislation was reported by Senate Commerce by a vote of 19-9, with 13 Republicans and 6 Democrats supporting the bill, and 2 Republicans and 7 Democrats opposing it. Though the bill has been endorsed by the NCAA and a number of its conferences, high-profile opposition from the SEC and Big Ten remains. In anticipation of potential floor action in July, the Commerce Committee continues to work on the bill and with those who have expressed concerns with it — Senators and stakeholders alike — to build further support. It is worth noting that the Senate bill and its House counterpart, the SCORE Act, differ significantly in scope and in a number of areas, making enactment of NIL legislation this year questionable even if the Cruz bill were to pass the Senate.
FY27 Appropriations. While at various points there has been hope for a robust FY27 appropriations process prior to the election, those hopes have faded amid continuing disagreements over topline spending levels. The Administration has requested significantly more defense spending than in years past, a demand Democrats will not agree to for various reasons. Unlike in years past, the minority has opted to oppose otherwise non-controversial bills in committee in the absence of a topline spending agreement. As such, the appropriations process in the Senate has stalled for now, and it is possible the only action the Appropriations Committee will take is publicly releasing its FY27 bills, without holding legislative markups.
That said, there is continuing interest among Republicans in pushing the appropriations process ahead of the September 30 deadline. The House has sent over two FY27 spending bills thus far, and it remains possible the Senate could vote this summer on appropriations in some form, such as a continuing resolution (CR) that may or may not include the Administration’s supplemental spending request.
Additional Legislation. A number of Senate committees will be active during July as well, including Senate Commerce, which continues to work on kids online safety/AI issues; EPW and Energy, the leaders of which continue to discuss energy permitting reform; and Senate Agriculture, which is planning to mark up its farm bill reauthorization. These items will continue to be worked on at the committee level, and while unlikely to see the floor prior to the elections, could be fodder for end-of-year discussions.
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
The House returns for a brief two-week session hoping for better GOP conference dynamics than preceded the July 4th recess. The House left town earlier than expected for recess after a small cadre of Republicans, led by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL), voted with the minority in opposing the rule to allow the FY27 NDAA to come to the floor. While Rep. Luna’s vote was due to her insistence that the SAVE America Act be included in the NDAA, a demand that House GOP leaders attempted to accommodate, there were several additional factions of opposition as well.
That episode marked the second straight week in which House leadership was unable to advance a procedural rule to tee up votes on its preferred party-line measures, making passing a rule and reopening the floor priority No. 1 upon the House’s return. As of now, the notional plan for doing so is to include H.R. 139, the Sunshine Protection Act, which makes Daylight Saving Time (DST) permanent, in a combined rule allowing it and several other measures to come to the floor. President Trump has repeatedly voiced strong support for the DST bill, and there is a belief that with his support the rule could pass and allow for some of the previously scheduled House business to advance.
Even with President Trump’s advocacy, however, it remains to be seen how successful this or any other attempt to reopen the floor will be. Unfinished business from June that awaits floor consideration includes H.R. 8595, the National Security and Related Programs appropriations bill; H.R. 9022, the Energy and Water appropriations bill; and H.R. 8800, the House FY27 NDAA. The House is also planning to pass H.R. 1181, the Protecting Privacy in Purchases Act, to prohibit payment card networks from using merchant codes that distinguish retailers of firearms from those who sell general merchandise or sporting goods.
GOP leadership will need to mollify concerns raised by the right flank about doing more to pass both the SAVE America Act and potentially more stringent border security legislation in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision on birthright citizenship. The latter effort faces its own objections among centrist Republicans, as well as from Members in agriculture districts who are demanding reforms to the visa process for seasonal farm workers move in tandem with any border security bill.
In the absence of passing a rule, House leadership will again be forced to rely on the bipartisan suspension calendar for any major legislation in the near-term, as was done before the break on the KIDS Act reported by the House Energy and Commerce Committee. As leadership is apt to say, the plan remains “fluid.”
Reconciliation 3.0. The other big item on House leadership’s mind — which could serve as a pressure release valve of sorts — is advancing a third budget reconciliation bill called for by President Trump that would combine elements of the SAVE America Act with a major spending plus-up for the Pentagon. President Trump has urged Congressional Republicans to pass $350 billion in extra defense funding, though the formal request sent to the Hill last month included just $67 billion for the Pentagon. Members of the House Budget Committee have held numerous calls over the recess in hopes of rallying enough support to mark up and pass a budget resolution through committee next week, but it is unclear if this effort will come to fruition as deep fissures remain around:
1. How much in requested defense supplemental spending is needed;
2. Whether and how the new defense spending will be offset; and
3. Whether any of various GOP proposals on the SAVE America Act could survive the Senate procedurally in budget reconciliation.
Even more challenging are the broader conference dynamics that could slow down the process should a budget resolution advance through committee, especially GOP centrists if offsets for the spending are required; deficit hawks if they are not; and hard-core SAVE America supporters who are not likely to settle for what they consider to be half-measures that can survive budget reconciliation. If the House is able to process a budget resolution prior to adjourning for August recess, it will face an uphill battle in the Senate. A unified budget resolution enacted by the House and Senate is necessary before the legislative process of reconciliation can begin.
Off the floor, we expect work to continue around the tech agenda, with various bipartisan AI frameworks, model security and distillation measures, and kids’ safety bills competing for attention. Also of note are upcoming hearings with the Fed, CFPB, Supreme Court, and USTR.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. The pre-election clock is ticking, with the House scheduled to be in session for just five weeks and the Senate for seven between now and the end of September. July is a make-or-break month on several fronts, including Senate action on digital asset legislation and House efforts on Reconciliation 3.0, difficult as those efforts may be.
Other legislative priorities, including NDAA and FY27 appropriations measures, have historically been resolved after the election and likely will be again this year during the lame duck. Additional legislative measures, including energy permitting reform, kids online safety protections, and the farm reauthorization bill, continue to be discussed at the committee level in the Senate and remain possible for action later in the year, as they are each unlikely to be finalized prior to the election.
Though there has not yet been a clear signal from the White House, the Hill’s cautious expectation is that the long-discussed ROAD to 21st Century Housing bill will become law come midnight tonight, but it may well be without President Trump’s signature despite his previous interest in pursuing this legislation. What is less likely to become law is the one item causing the bulk of the inter-chamber, inter-branch and intra-GOP friction: the SAVE America Act, which faces both procedural obstacles and a shortage of votes in the Senate. That is upsetting to many conservatives, not least of which is President Trump. The question, however, is whether that reality will derail anything else Congress might accomplish prior to the election.
With the calendar moving quickly, July is the last real opportunity for the Trump Administration — working with House Speaker Johnson and Senate Majority Leader Thune — to decide what it wants to accomplish before the election, and which priorities remain achievable.
###