Today, a bipartisan majority in the House voted to table the much anticipated “Motion to Vacate” resolution offered by Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA). The final vote tally was 359-43, with Republicans voting 196-11 and Democrats voting 163-32 in favor of tabling the measure.
As we have previewed for several weeks and months now-and despite direct interventions from former President Trump-the introduction of a Motion to Vacate was all-but-inevitable after Speaker Johnson worked across the aisle in defiance of the far right of his conference to make law on three bipartisan measures, including (1) FY24 government funding, (2) reauthorization of FISA Section 702 authorities, and (3) supplemental funding for Ukraine.
Nevertheless, unlike last September when a similar resolution was offered against Speaker Kevin McCarthy, House Democrats delivered on their assurances in public and private to vote to kill the measure so as to avoid the House descending into yet another protracted fight for the Speaker’s gavel that would have grounded all legislative business to a halt-a scenario that no Member was eager to live through yet again.
By defeating the resolution in decidedly lopsided fashion, the Speaker reduced the likelihood that such a motion will be called again, as even the handful of Republican lawmakers who supported the measure do not seem eager to take repeated losses. While another ouster attempt cannot be completely ruled out this Congress, the remaining “must-pass” items-from FAA reauthorization and NDAA to the Farm Bill and FY25 Appropriations-are far less likely to risk the ire of the far right in comparison to the aforementioned three items. Additionally, with the 2024 elections rapidly approaching, each passing day makes the idea of ousting the Speaker even more fanciful than it already was.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS
In the short-term, today’s victory is likely to strengthen the Speaker’s position. As the old saying goes, “when you have the votes, call the vote”-which is exactly what occurred today. Barring a dramatic change in heart by House Democrats, Johnson will remain Speaker of the House for the remainder of the 118th Congress, free to operate without the constant risk of losing his job in the background.
Even so, today’s vote ripped open old wounds inside the House Republican conference, wounds that seem unlikely to heal anytime soon. 11 Republicans* voted against tabling the measure, a larger number than did so on the equivalent procedural vote during the motion to vacate Speaker McCarthy. Given Speaker Johnson’s recent pronouncement that he “intend[s] to lead the conference in the future,” those eleven Members will be the first on his list to win over should Republicans hold the majority-with several such as Greene and Thomas Massie (KY) indicating they would be unlikely to vote for Speaker Johnson on the Floor in the future. If so, the true ramifications of today’s vote are unlikely to be known until early 2025.
*Andy Biggs (AZ), Eric Burlison (MO), Eli Crane (AZ), Warren Davidson (OH), Paul Gosar (AZ), Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA), Thomas Massie (KY), Alex Mooney (WV), Barry Moore (AL), Chip Roy (TX), Victoria Spartz (IN)
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