Following reports of a US/China trade agreement in London, we await final details from both sides. That said, the deal appears to be a limited exchange of rare earths for advanced technology/foreign student visas rather than a more fulsome breakthrough. Below, we outline our views of the emerging agreement, as well as the overall Trump […]

Just before 3:00 a.m. this morning, the House adopted the rule for consideration of the reconciliation bill (H.R. 1, The One Big Beautiful Bill Act), by a vote of 217-212 with Rep. Thomas Massie voting no. The House completed all general debate on the bill at approximately 6:00 a.m. and just now successfully concluded votes […]

The House Rules Committee successfully reported out shortly before 11:00 p.m., teeing up the reconciliation bill to be debated on the House floor. The vote was 8-4 with Chip Roy not voting (Ralph Norman voted yes). The rule “self-executes” the Manager’s Amendment, meaning once the rule passes on the floor, the Manager’s Amendment is also […]

House Republican Leadership has released the below summary of changes made to the Budget Committee’s legislative text of H.R. 1 by the Manager’s Amendment that was posted by the House Rules Committee this evening. In addition, here is the Comparative Print showing the differences between H.R. 1 (as reported by the Budget Committee) and the Rules Committee […]

At 8:52pm, the House Rules Committee reconvened to resume consideration of the reconciliation bill, signaling Leadership’s decision to move forward with bringing the bill to the House floor this evening. We are now truly down to the final list of House Republican holdouts on the reconciliation package. Leadership’s focus is largely on the deficit hawks […]

The coming days are among the most consequential for this year’s budget reconciliation process. As we forecasted last week, the three remaining House committees are scheduled to mark up their portions of the reconciliation bill this coming Tuesday, May 13: Agriculture, Energy & Commerce, and Ways & Means. E&C and W&M are scheduled to begin […]

Earlier today, the House passed the Senate’s amendment to the House-passed FY25 Budget Resolution, thus arming the two chamber’s dueling reconciliation instructions. With reconciliation now in effect, the two bodies can begin the process of fulfilling their respective instructions with legislative language from the committees that were instructed (view the House Budget Committee’s reconciliation process […]

This week will be among the most consequential to date for the Trump 2.0 Administration and the Republican-controlled 119th Congress. On Tuesday, the Commerce Department, Treasury, and USTR will release trade reports as mandated under the America First Trade Policy memo, setting the stage for the imposition of broad-based reciprocal tariffs on April 2 (aka “Liberation Day”). […]

This week marked yet another busy trade week for the Administration, with the successful confirmation and swearing-in of Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce (Jamieson Greer will be confirmed as USTR this coming week), the President moving to defend U.S. companies and innovators from overseas policies it deems discriminatory and exploitive (e.g., DSTs, fines, practices, […]

While the flurry of activity in Washington has been primarily confined to the Executive Branch and the President’s executive orders, cabinet nominees, and the DOGE, Congress continues to spin its wheels on a path forward with reconciliation, with both House and Senate Republicans making their respective cases to the President directly today and over the […]