Late last night, the House Rules Committee approved a rule to govern the floor consideration of the Senate Amendment to H.R. 1, the reconciliation vehicle (OBBBA). The vote was 7-6, with Reps. Chip Roy (TX) and Ralph Norman (SC) breaking ranks with committee Republicans to oppose the rule.
The House gaveled in at 9:00 a.m. this morning and is currently voting on the first Democratic dilatory procedural motion of the day. We expect this vote to remain open well past the usual window to accommodate Member meetings with Leadership and the White House, as well as to allow more time for Members with lingering travel delays to arrive in Washington, D.C.
While additional procedural motions are expected throughout the day, the minority is fairly limited in their available tools: one motion to adjourn during rule debate, one motion to adjourn during general debate, and a “Magic Minute” speech afforded to Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. House Republican Leadership will use each delay as a window to tighten their whip count and apply pressure as needed.
The first main vote to watch today will be the vote on Adoption of the Rule-the House equivalent of a Motion to Proceed-which is slated to occur between 12:00-1:00 p.m., accounting for delays. Already, House Freedom Caucus (HFC) Chair Andy Harris (MD) has signaled that he plans to oppose the Rule. Should more than three House Republicans oppose the Rule (i.e., Massie, Roy, Norman, and Harris), the legislative process on the OBBBA would temporarily grind to a halt. This is a threat that Harris and his HFC colleagues have used often, though have not always followed through on.
If Leadership can pass the rule, however, the House will then proceed to one hour of general debate on the bill, with time evenly divided between the Majority and Minority and between the Committees on Budget and Ways and Means. Passage of the Senate Amendment to H.R. 1 is not likely to occur until 3:00 p.m. at the earliest and perhaps much later.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. Senate passage of H.R. 1 has triggered renewed House GOP handwringing on Medicaid and IRA provisions, leaving Leadership once again on the hunt for 218 votes. That said, this has been the story of the Congress: high-stakes brinkmanship, last-minute arm-twisting, and President Trump stepping in to deliver. From the Speaker vote to the budget resolution and CR, House Leadership-with active White House engagement-has repeatedly pulled the proverbial rabbit out of the hat. In fact, the only real surprise would be a drama-free day.
While short-term turbulence is expected, House Republicans remain committed to hitting President Trump’s July 4th deadline. Expect continued White House engagement, pressure on holdouts, perhaps a few side deals or commitments made, and-eventually-passage of the Senate-passed bill prior to Independence Day. Stay tuned for more.
###