The Senate will be in session and voting this evening and through at least Thursday this week, while the House is out of session Monday and Tuesday due to the GOP Elected Leadership Committee (ELC) retreat, with its first votes scheduled for Wednesday evening. From a legislative standpoint this is an important week for both […]

GEOPOLITICAL UPDATE We lead with perhaps the most consequential U.S. military decision since Pearl Harbor. Since 1979, U.S. policy towards Iran has been a largely cyclical diplomatic strategy of deterrence, avoidance, sanctions, appeasement, and negotiations. Not until last summer’s military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities had the U.S. taken direct military interventionist action at scale. […]

By now, summaries of the Supreme Court’s decision striking down the President’s use of IEEPA to impose tariffs have been widely circulated. Rather than focus on the immediate aftermath, this note is meant to analyze what lies ahead and the impact on the Trump Administration’s overall trade and foreign policy agenda. In short, we see […]

GLOBAL TRADE The Supreme Court is next scheduled to sit this Friday, February 20, with additional opinion days scheduled for February 24 and 25. The IEEPA case is one of 12 argued in October or November that haven’t yet been publicly decided. In the interim, all eyes were on the Munich Security Conference this weekend. Secretary of State Marco Rubio […]

As has been a hallmark of Trump 2.0, President Trump issued a number of Executive Orders (EO) and Proclamations late Friday. This follows a busy week of trade and foreign policy news. Below is a summary of actions taken by the Administration, all of which will have significant trade and market implications. 25 Percent Iranian […]

With a Supreme Court decision on IEEPA at least a few more weeks away, President Trump continues to barrel ahead with his trade and foreign policy agendas. Last week’s flurry of activity included newly threatened tariffs on a variety of goods and countries, as well as bilateral deals inked and frameworks reached. Meanwhile, geopolitical events […]

Following negotiations between President Trump and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), the Senate passed an amended funding package late Friday consisting of a five-bill appropriations minibus plus a 14-day continuing resolution (CR) for Homeland Security (DHS) through February 13. The bill passed by a vote of 71-29, with roughly half of the Senate Democratic […]

Senate Votes this Evening. Following the deal struck by President Trump and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) late yesterday afternoon, and after an additional 24 hours of maneuvering to obtain a unanimous consent agreement to expedite passage, the Senate is expected to pass an amended funding bill imminently. The Senate has voted down several […]

This morning by a vote of 45-55 the Senate failed to advance to the House-passed six bill minibus that includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) along with other major departments including Defense (DOD); State; Financial Services (FSGG); Labor, Health and Human Services (Labor/HHS); Transportation and Housing (T-HUD). The vote was largely on […]

This is not the Senate outlook we anticipated sending 24 hours ago. What seemed like a relatively straightforward week upcoming in the Senate-the single biggest complicating factor being the weather-has turned on its head in the wake of another fatal shooting by a Federal agent in Minneapolis. As a result, another government shutdown is possible – […]