At approximately 2:30 AM this morning, the Senate passed via voice vote a bill to fund all of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), sans funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and certain components of Customs and Border Protection (CBP). While there was some thought earlier today that the House would accept this package, […]

“Reconciliation 2.0” is a live exercise for the immediate future, fueled by the Congressional Republicans’ search to restore funding to the Department of Homeland Security, the emerging need for supplemental appropriations, and a desire to require proof of citizenship for voter registration. Whether 2.0 is real by the time the House and Senate return from the […]

SENATE UPDATE The Senate convenes at 3:00 p.m. today, having invoked cloture Sunday afternoon on Senator Markwayne Mullin’s nomination to serve as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. If no post-cloture time is yielded back, Sen. Mullin will be confirmed this evening at roughly 7:45 p.m. The Senate will also invoke cloture on Colin […]

Operation Epic Fury is now in its 23rd day. The war’s dominant variable has shifted from military targets alone to diplomatic and economic negotiations. A coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz remains a stated goal for containing the energy shock hitting markets, but questions are now turning towards possible U.S. troop deployment. USMCA talks […]

Earlier today, the White House released its National AI Legislative Framework, providing the clearest signal to date of how the Administration intends to shape congressional action this year. A notable shift in both tone and substance from the “AI Moratorium” push we saw during the reconciliation debate, today’s proposal seeks to establish a national regulatory framework governing both […]

The global trade landscape came into greater focus this week with the announcement of two separate Section 301 investigations by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). Concurrently, Operation Epic Fury is now in its 15th day and shows no signs of abatement from any side. Below is our updated analysis of the […]

Operation Epic Fury, the joint U.S.-Israeli air campaign launched against Iran on February 28, is now in its 10th day and dominates every dimension of this week’s note: shipping, trade, geopolitics, and the global macroeconomic outlook. With markets experiencing a broad sell-off again today, much is in question. Below is our analysis of key data and […]

The Senate will be in session and voting this evening and through at least Thursday this week, while the House is out of session Monday and Tuesday due to the GOP Elected Leadership Committee (ELC) retreat, with its first votes scheduled for Wednesday evening. From a legislative standpoint this is an important week for both […]

GEOPOLITICAL UPDATE We lead with perhaps the most consequential U.S. military decision since Pearl Harbor. Since 1979, U.S. policy towards Iran has been a largely cyclical diplomatic strategy of deterrence, avoidance, sanctions, appeasement, and negotiations. Not until last summer’s military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities had the U.S. taken direct military interventionist action at scale. […]

By now, summaries of the Supreme Court’s decision striking down the President’s use of IEEPA to impose tariffs have been widely circulated. Rather than focus on the immediate aftermath, this note is meant to analyze what lies ahead and the impact on the Trump Administration’s overall trade and foreign policy agenda. In short, we see […]