Good morning! We wanted to keep you apprised of the latest discussions and developments as the Senate GOP readies its version of the One Big, Beautiful Bill for floor consideration later this week, and, if necessary, into the weekend.
Legislative Text. As all of the ten instructed committees have undergone the formal “Byrd Bath” process relating to initial text each released, we now expect updated text to begin to be released today. However, we do not believe we will see new text from every committee; it is more likely that six will release text today, with Senate Commerce having already done so. Of note, it is unlikely that Finance, which went last through the Byrd scrub, will release new text prior to floor consideration later this week, as the Parliamentarian continues her review of that title of the bill. Note that some of the committees are working on revising provisions that were ruled to be out of compliance with reconciliation rules during the initial scrub so as to make them Byrd compliant; examples including the SNAP state cost-sharing provisions and CFPB funding provisions (Ag and Banking committees, respectively).
Floor Debate/Vote-a-Rama Timing. Senate Majority Leader Thune has stated clearly that he intends to keep the Senate in session until they pass their bill, whether that is Friday night, Saturday morning, or later in the weekend. There are a lot of moving parts, and final decisions are still being made relating to top tier issues including Medicaid savings, individual SALT, IRA energy incentives and others.
Rather than begin debate tomorrow (Thursday), it’s more likely that the bill will come to the floor Friday (with a simple majority vote necessary to proceed to the bill). At that point, a substitute amendment will be offered, reflecting the Senate’s changes to the House-passed bill. There is up to 20 hours of debate, equally divided between the parties, and time can be yielded back. Given that, presuming they begin debate early on Friday, vote-a-rama – the process following reconciliation debate whereby unlimited germane amendments can be offered for votes – is still likely for Friday evening into early Saturday. As part of that, and If necessary, Leader Thune also has the ability to modify the bill before final passage in a “wraparound amendment” on the floor at the tail end of the vote-a-rama.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. It is crunch time as the Senate GOP works to accommodate members and put its stamp on the reconciliation bill, while at the same time working to attempt to send the House a bill it can accept, which would pave the way for enactment by July 4th. A lot must happen for this to come together over the next ~48 hours, but decision points are narrowing. These are judgment calls that-in addition to determining individual policies-will impact the overall balance of tax cuts and deficit reduction. The Senate leaders and the committees are in close contact with their House counterparts and the Trump Administration as they attempt to secure an agreement. It is not surprising that floor debate might slip to Friday, but what is more important is the resolve of the leaders to pass legislation through the Senate this week.
While the House will likely leave town on Friday for recess, it will be with notice to Members that pending Senate-passage they will be called back with 24 hours notice to take up the Senate-passed bill prior to July 4, likely Monday-Wednesday next week. We will keep you apprised as this process develops.
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