After several hours of drama and delay, the Senate has voted 51-49 to proceed to H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Senators Rand Paul and Thom Tillis joined all 47 Senate Democrats in voting against proceeding, while the final yes votes were delivered by conservative Senators Rick Scott, Cynthia Lummis, Mike Lee and Ron Johnson, who had previously voted no.
Process. Now on the bill, Majority Leader Thune has offered the complete substitute amendment that was released late last night. Senate Minority Leader Schumer has objected to waiving the reading of the substitute amendment, which is 940 pages long. The floor clerks will thus spend the remainder of the evening, and well into tomorrow, reading the bill, after which formal debate will begin. We expect the GOP to yield back most of its 10 hours of debate time, and the Vote-a-Rama will likely commence late tomorrow evening.
Amendments. While the Senate has taken a big step forward, the drama will continue as Senators exert leverage over the final product. Leader Thune ultimately secured enough votes to proceed to the bill but discussions over its provisions continue, with a few members who voted to proceed not yet committing to support final passage unless additional changes are made. Changes could encompass spending, tax, healthcare and other aspects of the legislation. In addition, members of both parties are preparing amendments to offer during the Vote-a-Rama, including many that address hot-button issues in the bill such as the IRA, SNAP, Medicaid, tax cuts and much more.
GOP Senators are also discussing amendment strategy, with some questioning whether any amendments adopted on the floor will survive a potential “wrap around” amendment offered at the end of debate. For their part, Senate Democrats will continue to hammer their major messages, including that the GOP is prioritizing tax cuts for the wealthy at the expense of Medicaid recipients, middle-income taxpayers, and the environment.
Scores. This evening, the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT), which is Congress’ official scorekeeper for tax legislation,
released an updated score detailing its cost estimate of the Senate substitute amendment now under consideration on the floor. The tax items in the Substitute score as costing about $690 billion over ten years under the current policy baseline (which assumes permanence of certain expiring tax provisions), which is $250 billion more than the previous iteration of the Crapo draft. This version incorporates the deal reached yesterday on individual SALT and reflects other changes made between drafts, including the removal of the “revenge tax” at the request of the Administration. JCT
also released a score using the current law baseline, which reflects the $250 billion cost increase. At $4.45 trillion over 10 years, the tax portion of the Senate bill comes in about $600 billion more than the House-passed bill.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which is charged with keeping score of spending measures under consideration by Congress,
also released bare-bones information regarding the spending portions of the OBBB. In it, CBO merely says that each of the ten Senate Committees that received reconciliation instruction is in compliance with their instruction. For example, it notes that the Senate Agriculture, Banking, Energy, EPW and HELP Committees each reduce deficits by not less than $1 billion over the 2025-2034 period. While the CBO letter does not offer further analysis, this certification is required to ensure that the reconciliation bill retains its procedural privilege in the Senate.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. Tonight’s vote, which took multiple hours to complete, is a stark illustration of the high-wire act Senate leadership faces as it works to pass the reconciliation bill in the coming days. We will keep you apprised of further developments as the Senate Republicans do their utmost to move forward through the weekend, with an eye towards sending the House an offer it can’t refuse on Monday. If that happens, expect a House vote to follow, probably on Wednesday.
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Senate Floor Update. Starting at 3pm and following 16 hours of reading, the Senate has begun up to 20 hours of debate on the OBBBA. The first item of business is debate on the Senate GOP’s use of the current policy baseline. Rather than wait for Senate Democrats to challenge it, Senate Republicans are asserting, and the Chair has ruled, that the Budget Committee Chairman has the authority under the Budget Act to determine the baseline. Leader Schumer has challenged the Chair’s ruling, and the Senate has begun one hour of debate on Schumer’s motion to overturn the ruling of the Chair. The time spent on this motion will count against the 20-hour limit on reconciliation, and the Senate will vote on the motion at the conclusion of debate.
Debate and Vote Timing. This evening the Senate will continue to debate the OBBBA. While Democrats will likely use most of their 10 hours of debate time prior to the vote-a-rama, the GOP will probably use less of theirs. Rather, the GOP will continue to work off the floor to ensure that they are ready for the marathon voting session and prepared to offer a wrap-around amendment reflecting updated final text at its conclusion. This process includes obtaining final parliamentary rulings, JCT and CBO scores and Member buy-in. While this process will spill into Monday, it is not yet clear how deep into Monday it will go.
OUTLOOK/ANALYSIS. Like any reconciliation process, the atmosphere is a bit chaotic as Members look to get final resolution on all manner of policy matters, and the Leaders and Committee Chairs begin to make final decisions on last-minute open issues. There are a number of potential amendments various GOP Senators might offer, along with scores of Democrat amendments. Whether the GOP Members move forward with demanding votes or hold their fire will in large part be determined over the course of the coming hours, with Leaders working to minimize this as best they can. This is also the part of the process that is most difficult to predict, and where additional tax offsets can come into play as any Member priorities are added.
In the meantime, coordination between Senate GOP Leaders, House Leaders and the White House continues as they attempt to thread the needle. If OBBBA passes the Senate on Monday, final House passage could follow as soon as Wednesday, clearing the bill for the President’s signature on July Fourth. We will keep you apprised.
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